Azi Paybarah

From Newt Gingrich's appearance on the Brian Lehrer Show earlier today:

Brian Lehrer: "Are you endorsing Paladino?"

Newt Gingrich: "Of course. If you want to rebuild the jobs in New York State, Paladino is the only choice in the election. Andrew Cuomo represents paying off the government employee unions, more expensive government, higher taxes, and continuing to destroy the New York economy."

What's going on?

Quinnipiac has the New York governor's race between the popular Democrat Andrew Cuomo and long-shot Tea Party Republican Carl Paladino as a six-point spread. SurveyUSA has them at nine points apart. And Siena is out today with Cuomo blowing Paladino out of the water by more than 20 points.

I'm submitting my amateurish analysis of the poll numbers until Nate Silver weighs in with the definitive explanation. (Silver wrinkled his nose at Quinnipiac for not including Rick Lazio as a gubernatorial candidate, since he will likely appear on the Conservative Party line, and wrote yesterday, "This race has gotten a lot closer. Probably not as tight as 6 points — but much closer, nevertheless."

Okay.

One thing to keep in mind is the self-fulfilling prophecy of early, and even inaccurate, polling. If everyone reports on a poll saying the race is close, the slew of media stories about the poll could create the reality the poll said it was reflecting.

As Steve Kornacki of Salon told me, "I do wonder whether the publicity of yesterday's numbers created will end up giving Paladino a boost -- so that even if the Q numbers were way off, now that everyone's been told he has such great momentum, he might really be closing in."

Pollster Peter Feld notes two other important factors: there's really not been any paid advertising yet. That'll shift the numbers. And, seeing the closeness of the race, Democrats could be jolted into action. That could mobilize some voters who have taken the race for granted so far.

"If Cuomo is at 49 percent among likely voters but 57 percent among registered voters, it means a low turnout is projected, one that skews heavily Republican," Feld says. "This fits with the national perception of an 'enthusiasm gap,' "

Now, he said, "the Democrats could easily fire themselves up later in the campaign, if the messaging improves (to be fair, we haven't seen the impact of ad campaigns yet, neither nationally nor in the Cuomo vs. Paladino race), and if so, the disparity between polling with registered voters and likely voters will probably reduce itself."

There's also a question of methodology.

If you average the numbers from polls that used a live interviewer (Marist, Quinnpiac and Siena), Cuomo leads Paladino 54.3 - 25.4.

And in this set of polls, there are no undecided voters, which seems unlikely.

Now, if you average the numbers from polls that use automated phone calls to survey voters (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA), Cuomo lead shrinks slightly, 52.9 - 36.4.

But the number of undecided voters jumps to a not-insignificant 15 percent.

Whether undecideds break to Cuomo or Paladino is unclear. In some ways, Cuomo is the incumbent in this race. He ran for governor once before, he's the son of a former governor, and he was elected along with a slate of Democrats who took control of Albany four years ago.

But Cuomo is running against Albany and the legislature and has taken on members of the Democratic coalition (Working Families Party, labor unions, "the legislature," etc.). And there is a sense that Paladino will continue his verbal assault on just about everyone. And the more the public pays attention to what he's actually saying, there's a chance he'll offend more voters than he attracts.

If you average all the polls so far (Quinnpiac, Siena, Marist, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen) Cuomo leads Paladino 52.1 - 40.1, with 6.4 undecided.

The polls that have come out so far which use "likely voters" and not just "registered voters" show the race being closer.

Quinnipiac has the race at 49-43. SurveyUSA has the race 49-40. What catches my eye in these is Cuomo hovering below 50 percent. For a one-on-one race where he, in some ways, is like an incumbent, that's a dangerous position.

And if you're not totally lost with all those numbers…Real Clear Politics aggregates the polls and puts the race at a 10-point spread for Cuomo.

Tomorrow, Marist is expected to release their poll.

Yesterday, Quinnipiacmade headlines with these poll numbers:

Andrew Cuomo - 49
Carl Paladino - 43

This morning, Siena throws cold water on the fire, with these numbers:

Andrew Cuomo - 57
Carl Paladino - 24
Rick Lazio - 8

I’m reaching out to pollsters to get a better handle on this, but here’s a few notes. Quinnipiac surveyed “likely voters.” Errol Louis pointed out on his radio show this morning, it may be too early to start weeding out “likely voters” from “registered voters” this far out from an election.

Siena surveyed registered voters, and obviously, included Lazio as a third-party candidate. But even if all of Lazio’s voters went to Paladino, he still trails Cuomo by more than 20 points.

Paladino’s campaign has already said the discrepancy “is certainly suspicious.”

The former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe has some counter-intuitive advice for Democrats. Talk about healthcare.

Here’s his exchange on Morning Joe:

Joe Scarborough:
We’re seeing polls show Democrats even in trouble in New York State. It’s the front page of the New York Times today, [Senator] Gillibrand only ahead only by six points against a guy that three-fifths of the state doesn’t even know…

Terry McAuliffe:
[Democrats] have to defend what we’ve done. Healthcare, whether you like it or not, it’s our signature issue the Democrats have. Talk about it. You did it…Be proud of it. You did it and here are the benefits you get for it.

The president, Deputy Mayor Patti Harris, and the mayor. (Edward Reed / nyc.gov)

At the Clinton Global Initiative, the mayor and former president share a moment - in front of the cameras. Bloomberg was there to announce a traffic safety plan.

On a conference call with reporters this afternoon, Rudy Giuliani said, “I don’t know Carl Paladino and he hasn’t asked for my endorsement and I don’t endorse people that I don’t know and who haven’t asked for it.”

Giuliani had endorsed former GOP Rep. Rick Lazio, who lost the Republican primary to Paladino. But Lazio is still on the Conservative line and hinting he may keep actively campaigning.

“I haven’t spoken to Rick so I don’t know what he is planning to do,” Giuilani said. “I empathize with the situation he and [Conservative Party Chairman] Mike Long are in.”

That “situation” is the party’s need to get 50,000 votes in order to maintain the automatic place on the ballot for the next four years. But with the race supposedly tightening between Democrat Andrew Cuomo and Paladino, nobody wants to be seen as the spoiler who helps elect Cuomo.

Andrew Cuomo tries capturing the mood.

Pollster Peter Feld dissects the numbers from Quinnipiac, showing the popular Democratic attorney general Andrew Cuomo only six points ahead of his little-known Republican rival, Carl Paladino.

Feld says Cuomo will engage, and voters will eventually get past their love affair with the concept of an angry outsider. In the end, Feld ventures Cuomo holds on 54-46 percent:

Here's Feld:

Outside political circles and the Republican base, the electorate hasn't grasped Paladino yet. Not everyone sees the front page of the Daily News and knows he's a nut.

To some extent this represents the partisan structure of New York State right now, including the enthusiasm gap. When you consider the past four years in Albany, it's no shock that Democratic voters (and others) are not enthusiastic about the Democrats - that on top of the national environment. And Cuomo is reaping somewhat the effects of the lengthy non-campaign; he isn't sufficiently differentiated from the current regime.

But GOP voters have grasped Paladino (and obviously, they respond to his message of anger, all the better for being so unfiltered). His pugnacious nature is why he has consolidated his base so quickly. Suppose polls right after the primary showed Cuomo 49%, Paladino 36% - I would still expect a result around 54%-46%, it would just be slower to settle. Paladino has made himself distinctive and hasn't had to spend money to get known.

Paladino's 46% is sure to include a fair number of people who don't really know him, but support him as a generic Republican. I think he has more downside from people getting to know his off-the-wall style (e.g., after those debates he is demanding - unless he pulls a Reagan curveball and shows up totally rational and competent-seeming... then it would be a different race) than upside.

I expect Cuomo to engage this race better, and he can push his number above 50. I will go with 54%-46% or maybe a point or two closer.

Mayor Bloomberg endorses Andrew Cuomo for governor. (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

That was Mayor Bloomberg's signature line from this morning's endorsement of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Cuomo. It reminds me of Rudy Giuliani's line against Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential campaign: "hope is not a strategy."

The other major takeaway from the endorsement announcement was Cuomo saying, in response to a question, that he had in the past voted for Bloomberg, the three-term mayor. A Cuomo campaign spokesman emailed afterward to say Cuomo misspoke.

Cuomo never endorsed Bloomberg, and, as Maggie Haberman digs up, Cuomo didn't vote in the 2001 or 2009 elections. That's because he has a home in Westchester.

In the the 2005 mayor's race, the Democratic candidate was Fernando Ferrer, whom Cuomo endorsed, and Bloomberg demolished.

Closing the gap? GOP gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino trails Democrat Andrew Cuomo by six points. (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

Syracuse Post Standard: "Stunning" poll shows Paladino within 6 points of Cuomo. (Syracuse Post Standard)

Fred Dicker: "startling." (New York Post)

The gap between Cuomo and Paladino has "shrunk significantly." (WKBW)

The AP notes Paladino has a 20-point edge over Cuomo among female voters. (The AP via Christian Science Monitor)

Time to tweak Cuomo's campaign slogan: "Just 10% listed 'right experience' as the quality that matters most in deciding how they will vote." (Daily News)

NY1 smartly states points out the poll does not include Rick Lazio. (NY1)

Jimmy Vielkind: "For the second time in six months, leaders of the New York State Republican Party are turning away from Rick Lazio." (Times Union)

Steve Kornacki thinks Cuomo should agree to debate Paladino "soon." (Capital New York)

Half the people named to Paladino's tax-cutting policy team didn't know about the idea, and aren't likely to serve. (New York Post)

Bloomberg will endorse Cuomo, according to sources. (New York Post)

Rep. Maloney [$]: "This was a proxy battle between the people and the special interests." (Wall Street Journal)

Rep. Rangel's ethics hearing [$] will probably be after the November elections. (Wall Street Journal)

Bill Clinton regrets the "don't ask don't tell," saying, "i didn't choose this policy." (Daily News)

Paladino has state leases to deal with. (Times Union)

Joe Spector sees Tom Golisano as the precursor to Paladino. (Rochester Democrat & Chronicle)

Newswer thinks anyone can be governor of New York. (Newser)

And Cindy Adams talks to Dominic Carter: "Offered p.r. work, journalistic jobs elsewhere and only hopes of returning to NY-1, he has three homes. With no income and legal expenses, he says, 'Right now I could lose all three.' " (New York Post)

Carl Paladino during an interview in Central Park with CNN's Soledad O'Brien (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

Or something like that.

From my story:

[Campaign manager Michael] Caputo took a swig of mouthwash from a mini bottle, painfully rinsed then spit it out on a patch of grass.

"I have a big hole in my mouth," he explained. "I crushed a tooth when we were out on the campaign trail and they pulled over and dropped me off an at oral surgeon. They took it out in 22 pieces and then I got on a plane to catch up with Carl."

The campaign, he says, is keeping him too busy to have it fixed properly.

"Because it was such a difficult surgery, they gave me really powerful pills which knock me out. And I can't be knocked out," he said. "So, I just got to work through it. I walk around for a week now, I had blood in my mouth, which just sucks. Carl thinks it's funny."

Then, Mr. Caputo imitated Mr. Paladino: "That's great…My man has got blood in his mouth!"

On Tuesday, Mr. Paladino wasn't so blood-thirsty.

He sat on a wooden green bench in Central Park, basking in his role as the gubernatorial nominee of the New York State Republican Party, something few thought was possible before last week.

"Chairman Cox called me right after the primary and congratulated me," Mr. Paladino said. He recalled Mr. Cox saying, "we're with you one hundred percent. And you got the whole party establishment behind you."

In an August interview with WNYC, Mr. Paladino had said the Republican Party had become " "a shell" of what it used to be.

Was that party apparatus worth anything?

"Sure it is," he said. "Yeah, I won." He went on to say "The political establishment is learning how to move into the 21st century. The Tea Party movement is teaching them," he said. "There might be a changing of the guard in some places, okay, but a majority of them have accepted that."

Only six points separates Republican Carl Paladino and Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released this morning.

Cuomo leads Paladino 49-43 percent. While both candidates have stressed their independence from Albany's political establishment, Paladino, a commercial real estate developer from Buffalo leads Cuomo, the state's attorney general, among independent voters, 49-43 percent.

Also, Paladino voters seem more dedicated to voting for him, than Cuomo voters.

From the poll's crosstabs:

1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

Made up / Might Change

Cuomo: 77-23
Paladino: 81-18

It's worth noting that the poll is based on responses from "likely voters," while other polls released by Quinnipiac, Siena and other outlets often use "registered voters," which is a lower standard for respondents to meet. The other "registered voters" polls have Cuomo leading by as much as 16 points over Paladino.

This poll was conducted with responses from 751 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

Cyril Joseph says he was fired from the non-profit founded by Vito Lopez "because I did not endorse Maritza Davilla," a City Council candidate Lopez was supporting last year.

Joseph says the official reason he was given for losing his $10-an-hour custodial job after only a year was poor performance. He says others within the non-profit made it clear he was fired because of his political activities.

Joseph made his claim last night, outside the Brooklyn Democratic County Organization's bi-annual meeting where Lopez was re-elected as County Leader.

Lopez took a few questions from reporters afterward, but left before he could be asked about Joseph's claim. City investigators have already criticized the non-profit for lax financial oversight. Lopez defended the organization, saying he's "proud" they serve his community.

After leaving last night's meeting of the Brooklyn Democratic County Organization, Assemblyman Dov Hikind told reporters that the County Leader, Vito Lopez's health was declining.

Before the meeting concluded, Brooklyn Paper had reported that Lopez is telling allies he has cancer.

When Lopez emerged from the meeting, he took a few questions. When asked about his health, Lopez asked a reporter "who are you" and "are you well?"

"That is like an outrageous request," Lopez fumes.

Later, he's heard referring to this New York Post reporter, as "a real sick lady."

Technical note: my videography is completely amateurish.

Chuck Schumer introduces himself to New Yorkers and touts pocketbook issues. I didn't see or hear the word "Democrat," in the 30-second spot, which I think is notable, particularly for the guy who once lead the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and is the architect for much of the party's strategy in that chamber.

Here's the link to the video, which for some reason, I'm having technical difficulty embedding.

Carl Paladino during an interview in Central Park with CNN\'s Soledad O\'Brien (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

The commercial real estate developer from Buffalo was asked by Soledad O'Brien to comment about the Islamic cultural center and mosque slated to open in Lower Manhattan. Mr. Paladino, who seemed for a while unable to moderate his over-the-top rhetoric, said the "mosque" was a "side issue" and had "nothing to do with the day to day life of the people in the state of New York."

Was Mr. Paladino, the insurgent who won the Republican gubernatorial nomination eight days earlier, already becoming main stream?

Technically, yes.

After dispatching former Rep. Rick Lazio of Long Island in a 24-point landslide, Mr. Paladino has been hoisted onto the New York State Republican Party as their standard bearer.

And the media has come knocking. Two cameramen from CNN were filming Mr. Paladino and Ms. O'Brien chatting away. A reporter and photographer from the New York Post waited for their turn to talk to Mr. Paladino. He was on a tight schedule, having his second radio interview of the day in about an hour.

And Mr. Paladino's campaign manager, Michael Caputo, was muttering commentary to a New York Times reporter. Mr. Caputo is indeed worth his own profile. He's run campaigns in Russia, survived a plane crash near Sibera, lived on a boat in Key West, and before this campaign, hadn't worn shoes in four years, nor a suit in five years.

Mr. Caputo took a swig of mouthwash from a mini bottle, painfully rinsed then spit it out on a patch of grass.

"I have a big hole in my mouth," he explained. "I crushed a tooth when we were out on the campaign trail and they pulled over and dropped me off an at oral surgeon. They took it out in 22 pieces and then I got on a plane to catch up with Carl."

The campaign, he says, is keeping him too busy to have it fixed properly.

"Because it was such a difficult surgery, they gave me really powerful pills which knock me out. And I can't be knocked out," he said. "So, I just got to work through it. I walk around for a week now, I had blood in my mouth, which just sucks. Carl thinks it's funny."

Then, Mr. Caputo imitated Mr. Paladino: "That's great…My man has got blood in his mouth!"

On Tuesday, Mr. Paladino wasn't so blood-thirsty.

He sat on a wooden green bench in Central Park, basking in his role as the gubernatorial nominee of the New York State Republican Party, something few thought was possible before last week.

"Chairman Cox called me right after the primary and congratulated me," Mr. Paladino said. He recalled Mr. Cox saying, "we're with you one hundred percent. And you got the whole party establishment behind you."

In an August interview with WNYC, Mr. Paladino had said the Republican Party had become " "a shell" of what it used to be.

Was that party apparatus worth anything?

"Sure it is," he said. "Yeah, I won." He went on to say "The political establishment is learning how to move into the 21st century. The Tea Party movement is teaching them," he said. "There might be a changing of the guard in some places, okay, but a majority of them have accepted that."

If Mr. Paladino was softening his razor-sharp tongue, it wasn't to the benefit of his Democratic rival, State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Mr. Paladino's campaign has called into questioned Mr. Cuomo's "manhood" and wondered whether he he has the "cajones" to govern New York.

An image of Mr. Cuomo's face was super-imposed above a topless man in the shower, covered with mud, courtesy of Mr. Paladino's campaign.

Mr. Cuomo is now faced with a few unpleasant options. Engage a candidate with no known restraints on congeniality. Or, ignore him, feeding into Mr. Paladino's criticism that Mr. Cuomo, as the son of a former governor, is expecting inherit the keys to the govenror's mansion, rather than earn it from voters.

Ignoring Mr. Paladino's antics - he's also sent workers dressed in chicken and duck outfits to taunt Mr. Cuomo and Mr. Lazio into noticing him and sent foul-smelling mail to voters - proved fatal during the Republican primary.

Engaging him may, in some people's eyes, elevate the outrageous fringe candidacy into some sort of legitimacy.

Mr. Cuomo is, for now, allowing surrogates to attack Mr. Paladino head-on while he, and his campaign, take the high ground.

"I'm not going to run a campiagn that engages in guttter politics," Mr. Cuomo said Tuesday morning in an interview on Talk1300. The interview came hours after a Daily News story said Mr. Cuomo was asking campiagn advisors "If a guy says you have no cojones, how do you punch him back, call him an a--hole?"

While Mr. Paladino made the rounds of national media - since wining the primary last week, he's appeared on New York 1 News, CNN with Anderson Cooper, Fox News with Neal Caputo, and held interviews with nearly every reporter who's asked.

Mr. Cuomo held one press conference in his capacity as Attorney General, where he let reporters pelt him with questions about Mr. Paladino, but offered no direct commentary on his rival.

On Tuesday, both took to the airwaves.

Mr. Cuomo subjected himself to an interview on Talk1300 with the New York Post State Editor Fred Dicker - who has known Mr. Cuomo for years and interviewed him on his show numerous times.

There, Mr. Cuomo used the word "denigrate" numerous times to describe what Mr. Paladino was doing to the political discourse.

Two hours earlier though, Mr. Paladino had appeared on WOR with John Gambling for what the host billed as a "Town Hall" meeting.

Callers were encouraged to call and ask Mr. Paladino questions.

At the start of the Town Hall, Mr. Palaidno reveled in having caused some headaches for Mr. Cuomo's campaign team. "At a boy Andy," Mr. Paladino chuckled. "Keep coming Andy."

But the Town Hall quickly took a more serious, if not wonky turn, with Mr. Paladino announcing a four-member team to help flesh out his tax-cutting strategy.

(Members would include Ned Regan, the former state comptroller and current Baruch College professor; Larry Kudlow, the pin-striped financial analyst on MSNBC who adviced President Reagan and Governor Pataki; David Malpass, the former economic advisor to Presidents Bush and Reagan; and Chris Collins, the Erie County Executive who abandoned a run for governor earlier this year.)

Mr. Paladino sought to contrast himself with Mr. Cuomo, without, for once, any name-calling.

"You've heard Andrew, he's talking about capping a percentage increase in taxes," Mr. Paladino said. "In other words, allowing a gradual growth in taxes. We're talking clearly about a continuous effort to cut taxes. We will cut taxes every year."

Back in Central Park, Mr. Paladino said becoming the Republican gubernatorial nominee hasn't affected core DNA.

"No, I haven't changed," he chuckled. "If you're question is am I changing my message or anything like that, no."

I offer a small reminder that despite the headlines, it's not Carl Paladino.

It's Steve Cohn.

Cohn is an attorney in private practice, registered member of the Independence Party, and, thanks to a few thousand petitions filed with the State Board of Elections, a gubernatorial candidate running on the “Tea Party” line.

“Lets put it this way – the Tea Party nominated me,” Cohn said in an interview Monday afternoon. (He also spoke with WNYC in late August.)

After handing in about 50,000 signatures to appear on the ballot as the Tea Party candidate, Mr. Cohn said, “I think it’s inaccurate” to refer to Mr. Paladino as the Tea Party candidate.

“I have never spoken to Mr. Paladino, but my sense of it is that his policies don’t necessarily reflect the policies along the Tea Party line. Now, we all say we’re against public corruption. It’s easy to say because it sounds good, but it’s hard to endorse it when you might be part of the problem.” Mr. Cohn then went on to rattle off a number of charges levied at Mr. Paladino, a commercial real estate developer who has rented space to government agencies.

“I cannot say whether all the transactions in and of themselves would undergo scrutiny and come out clean,” said Mr. Cohn.

But Cohn offers this surprising defense of Paladino:

“We’ve all forward emails,” said Mr. Cohn. “I’m sure that every single person has gotten emails and forwarded on that may have been cute, funny or may appeal to somebody without any real intent to abdicate the content of the email. So, I think we take things too far and this is just one example of it.”

“If it was just forwarding it on because he got it and just passed it on – I just think it’s making a mountain out of a molehill,” said Mr. Cohn.

Democratic State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli is out with his first television ad hitting his Republican rival, Harry Wilson, and branding himself as separate and apart from the Albany establishment.

Like Senator Gillibrand and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo, DiNapoli's ad does not identify him as a Democrat.

Something I couldn't resist posting during my day of exceedingly light blogging:

The video accompaniment of Carl Paladino explaining why he doesn't think much of fellow Republican insurgents Sarah Palin and Chris Chistie.

Note: the audio isn't stellar, but the disdain comes across loud and clear.

While discussing 2012 presidential candidates, I asked what he thought about Palin.

"We need a real leader, not someone who is going to go there and just throw a bunch of words around," Paladino said.

Andrew Cuomo's consultant Phil Singer laid out the media strategy for how the front-runner Democratic nominee will handle the erratic, off-the-cuff (and, for now, media-liked) Republican candidate Carl Paladino:

"Our strategy is just to let him talk," Singer said.

At a press conference today, Cuomo declined to comment directly on Paladino's emails. Reporters tried several times to get Cuomo to go after Paladino directly. The had no success.

At first, it felt like Cuomo was employing the same strategy as Rick Lazio, the Republican candidate who ignored Paladino and got crushed in the primary.

But a smart reader points out to me the difference between how Cuomo and Lazio are reacting to Paladino.

Lazio, in the primary, ignored Paladino, and pivoted every question about Paladino into a commentary about Andrew Cuomo.

Cuomo, for his part, isn't ignoring Paladino, but rather, saying the issue of Paladino's character is something for the voters to decide.

Here's the breakdown from a reader:

When asked today to characterize his opponent Andrew Cuomo said it was a matter for the voters to decide. Despite Mr. Paladino's racist and sexist statements, Cuomo refused repeated attempts by reporters to comment on Mr. Paladino

saying instead that it's not up to him while Paladino's strategy remains to pummel Cuomo with increasingly incendiary statements real people, ie: voters don't need Andrew to tell them that Paladino is a lunatic they don't care if he does frankly Paladino will communicate that all by himself