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The Empire

Is it a nailbiter, or a blowout? Quinnipiac vs Siena

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Yesterday, Quinnipiacmade headlines with these poll numbers:

Andrew Cuomo - 49
Carl Paladino - 43

This morning, Siena throws cold water on the fire, with these numbers:

Andrew Cuomo - 57
Carl Paladino - 24
Rick Lazio - 8

I’m reaching out to pollsters to get a better handle on this, but here’s a few notes. Quinnipiac surveyed “likely voters.” Errol Louis pointed out on his radio show this morning, it may be too early to start weeding out “likely voters” from “registered voters” this far out from an election.

Siena surveyed registered voters, and obviously, included Lazio as a third-party candidate. But even if all of Lazio’s voters went to Paladino, he still trails Cuomo by more than 20 points.

Paladino’s campaign has already said the discrepancy “is certainly suspicious.”