'I expect Cuomo to engage this race better'

Wednesday, September 22, 2010 - 02:41 PM

Pollster Peter Feld dissects the numbers from Quinnipiac, showing the popular Democratic attorney general Andrew Cuomo only six points ahead of his little-known Republican rival, Carl Paladino.

Feld says Cuomo will engage, and voters will eventually get past their love affair with the concept of an angry outsider. In the end, Feld ventures Cuomo holds on 54-46 percent:

Here's Feld:

Outside political circles and the Republican base, the electorate hasn't grasped Paladino yet. Not everyone sees the front page of the Daily News and knows he's a nut.

To some extent this represents the partisan structure of New York State right now, including the enthusiasm gap. When you consider the past four years in Albany, it's no shock that Democratic voters (and others) are not enthusiastic about the Democrats - that on top of the national environment. And Cuomo is reaping somewhat the effects of the lengthy non-campaign; he isn't sufficiently differentiated from the current regime.

But GOP voters have grasped Paladino (and obviously, they respond to his message of anger, all the better for being so unfiltered). His pugnacious nature is why he has consolidated his base so quickly. Suppose polls right after the primary showed Cuomo 49%, Paladino 36% - I would still expect a result around 54%-46%, it would just be slower to settle. Paladino has made himself distinctive and hasn't had to spend money to get known.

Paladino's 46% is sure to include a fair number of people who don't really know him, but support him as a generic Republican. I think he has more downside from people getting to know his off-the-wall style (e.g., after those debates he is demanding - unless he pulls a Reagan curveball and shows up totally rational and competent-seeming... then it would be a different race) than upside.

I expect Cuomo to engage this race better, and he can push his number above 50. I will go with 54%-46% or maybe a point or two closer.


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Comments [3]


Let's talk about HUD. Let's talk about how Cuomo helped cause the housing disaster. All I want to hear about is HUD.

Oh yes, and I also want to talk about how EVERYONE knows that Albany is corrupt, fiscally and ethically bankrupt -- and, ummm, who's the AG?

Why would would make this insider our the governor of NY?

NYS does not have royalty. You don't just inherit your daddy's throne here. Sorry.

And did I mention that I'd really like to hear more about HUD! OK lamestream media, get to WORK!

Sep. 30 2010 05:37 PM

Maybe it will be Carl "BAM BAM" Paladino with 50 plus and "Cover up" Cuomo 48 or lower ?Before there was the “Oracle at Delphi” there was Count Vampire J. MachiavelliVJ Machiavelli www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.comJUST say NO to the Democ"RAT"ic Cover Up Gangof Schumer, Cuomo, DiNapoli, and there "WATACHDOG AG"

Sep. 23 2010 05:41 AM
Typical Voter

Interesting analysis from another pollster. Sienna reported over a month ago that Cuomo received below 50% approval in key elements that Paladino is attacking. An individual who has built a successful business in an area of the State where noone wants to go cannot be dimissed. Remember people are responding to the question being asked by the pollster. If you don't ask the question you will never know the answer. Futerhmore, more people connect with Paladino than Cuomo. Cuomo does not understand the voter, when was the last time he opened a door for someone or road in the front seat of a cab. People are tired of the phonies and Paladino is an individual who speaks his mind and 90% of the public find that refreshing, though some may never vote for him. Four years with Paladino has the lobbyist and Albany Elite shaking in their boots, the voter on the other end is saying thank God.

Sep. 23 2010 02:37 AM

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