In Tuesday's Special Election, All Eyes on Westchester

Special elections to fill open legislative seats rarely attract much notice, but Jessica Su says the candidates for state senate in Westchester are filling up her mailbox with flyers.

"It's turned into a huge pile," Su said as she waited for a Metro North train at the Tuckahoe station. "My husband joked that he was only going to vote for a candidate who didn't send us mail."

Su lives in the 37th Senate District, which ranges from Yonkers and Rye in the south, up to Bedford in the north. The seat became vacant when Democrat George Latimer became Westchester County Executive at the start of the year. Democrats need two seats to win a numerical majority in the state Senate, and the other open seat is considered relatively safe for them — it's a Bronx district where Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly 20-to-one.

There are also nine assembly seats up for grabs, including two in New York City, but those races won't affect the balance of power in the heavily Democratic chamber. So all eyes are on Westchester.

Latimer's Republican challenger in 2016, former Rye city council member Julie Killian, is trying again for the seat. This district isn't as heavily Democratic as the one in the Bronx, but the party still has a comfortable margin. Killian lost the contest two years ago, 44 percent to 56. This time she's facing Democrat Shelley Mayers, a three-term Yonkers Assemblywoman.

Under election-year pressure from Governor Andrew Cuomo, the breakaway Senate faction known as the Independent Democratic Conference has rejoined the fold. So winning the two senate seats in the special election would give the Democrats the numerical majority, 32-to-31 in the 63-seat chamber. 

However, hurdles would still remain.

First, there's Brooklyn's rogue Democrat, Simcha Felder, who sits with Republicans and has given mixed signals about returning to the Democratic caucus. And even if he did, GOP senators have a firewall ready: a rule declaring Senate control can only shift  parties, mid-session, with a 38-vote majority.

That would only last through the end of this session in mid-June. And Democrats could challenge that in court — but only if they win the two open seats on Tuesday.

With so much at stake, the candidates have raised large amounts of money for a state senate seat: about $967,000 for Killian and $972,000 for Mayer, according to the most recent disclosures.

Mayer has the support of Cuomo, Latimer and various Democratic groups, including labor unions. Killian has been endorsed by former Gov. George Pataki and several business groups, including the National Federation of Independent Business.