There's Data Missing from the Flatten the Curve Chart

The daily exhortations from Governors Andrew Cuomo and Phil Murphy to “flatten the curve” are working to reduce the spike in Covid-19 infections.  But just how much that curve has flattened is unknown.

That’s because a central data point in calculating the curve is a guesstimate: How many people are infected with the virus. 

The shortage of COVID-19 tests has meant that only those with symptoms are being tested. 

“We're not doing enough testing to really know how many people are infected, which means that we can't put into the model the number of infected people to know where we are on the curve,” said Sarah Allred, an associate professor at Rutgers University in Camden who is a data and computational researcher.

Specifically, researchers don’t know how many people are carrying the virus without showing any symptoms. Allred says it’s not necessary to test everyone to figure that out -- just a representative sample. But Gov. Murphy says New Jersey can’t do more widespread testing.

“Our best metric for ensuring that our testing resources are being properly dispersed and that our greater medical resources are being put to their highest and best use, especially our health care workers, comes from testing the right people -- those who are symptomatic,” Murphy said at a recent press conference.