Opposition Mounts Against New York and New Jersey Congressmen

With President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, opposition against Republican congressmen in New York and New Jersey is mounting, and Democrats could pick up a few seats in the region.

According to Sarah Bryner, research director at the Center for Responsive Politics, more Democratic challengers are entering races than ever before — and they're raising hundreds of thousands of dollars.

"For every Republican incumbent in an even vaguely competitive seat, you usually see maybe one competitor who struggles to raise money," Bryner said. "But this cycle we're seeing upwards of three, four, five competitors raising significant amounts of money."

Bryner said members of Congress usually have about a 90 percent reelection rate, mostly because would-be candidates are intimidated by the amount of money needed to against an incumbent. 

But things look different this time around. According to the most recent campaign filings, every Republican incumbent in New Jersey was out-raised by at least one Democratic challenger this past quarter. Of the four districts in downstate New York controlled by Republicans, Democrats raised more than the sitting congressmen in two of them last quarter.

In New Jersey's District 7, for example, Tom Malinowski raised $528,471 during the last three months of 2018, and Lisa Mandelblatt raised $279,368. Incumbent Leonard Lance pulled in $236,625.

One top Republican has already conceded. On Monday, congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey said he wouldn't seek reelection after having comfortably held on to his seat for 12 terms. 

That cleared the way for challenger Mikie Sherrill, who's raised $1,172,969 in the past year. Close to 20 percent of what she's raised has been in small individual contributions, compared to less than two percent for Frelinghuysen according to OpenSecrets.org. In the last three months before announcing he wouldn't run, Frelinghuysen only got 11 campaign donations from within his district, according to the most recent filings.

New York and New Jersey are among five blue states that could tip the scale in the House. A recent analysis by The Cook Political Report found these states (along with California, Virginia and Illinois) hold 38 percent of vulnerable Republican-held seats.

New York candidates are also raising large amounts of money. In the past year, two Democrats in New York's Hudson Valley have raised more than Republican John Faso, with more than a million dollars each.

"To have competitors raising in the millions, that's unusual, and indicates that we might have both competitive general and primary elections," Bryner said.