Place Your Bets!
With midterm elections around the corner, conspiracy theories have been planted to sow doubt in the results. On this week’s On the Media, a breakdown of what election rumors to expect on and after Election Day. Plus, how polling fraudsters are threatening trust in public opinion research.
[00:00] Micah sits down with Kate Starbird, co-founder of the Center for An Informed Public at the University of Washington, to sort through the rumors swirling in the final week of midterm election campaigns.
[16:16] Brooke chats with Mary Radcliffe, head of research at Fifty Plus One, about three fraudulent pollsters she helped catch this year, and how they muddy the waters for critical work that informs our democracy.
[30:27] Brooke speaks with Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University, about the history of betting on elections and what lessons carry forward to today.
Further reading / watching:
- “Spot the Lie: 6 Moves of “Rigged Election” Rumors,” by The Center for an Informed Public
- “What to Know About Election Forecasting and Prediction Markets This November,” by The Center for an Informed Public
- “A Tale of Two Sullivans: Rumors Around a Department of Justice Lawsuit in Alaska,” by The Center for an Informed Public
- “FiftyPlusOne just caught a pollster faking data — and they copped to it,” by Mary Radcliffe, G. Elliott Morris, Cooper Burton, and FiftyPlusOne
- “Historical Presidential Betting Markets,” by Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf
