Monday, March 05, 2012
Today on "The Capitol Pressroom":
According to State Senator Mike Gianaris, he's been consistently outspoken on government reform whether serving in the Senate or Assembly. On today’s Capitol Pressroom, the Queens Democrat discusses Cuomo's comments, today’s New York Times editorial, and the defensive stance taken on Friday by Assemblyman Jack McEneny, a fellow Democrat and the Assembly co-chair of LATFOR, upon learning of Gianaris’ criticism of a constitutional amendment in-the-making.
Siena Pollster Steve Greenberg returns, wielding data.
We hear what former Republican gubernatorial candidate John Faso has to say about relationships, specifically the one between Republicans and women in light of Rush Limbaugh’s latest comments.
Adam Lisberg, editor of City & State New York shares highlights from the latest issue of the paper, including a story about increasing highway & bridge tolls in order to pay for transportation infrastructure.
For show archives, please visit The Capitol Bureau's website here.
Monday, March 05, 2012
In the latest Siena College poll, Governor Andrew Cuomo's job performance and favorability numbers have slid, though they remain "the envy of any politician," according to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
Cuomo is viewed favorably by 69 percent of voters and unfavorably by 25 percent of voters surveyed. That's down from 74-18 percent last month, according to Siena. He retains a high job performance rating at 57 percent, though that, too, has dropped from 61 percent last month.
“While Andrew Cuomo's numbers are down a little from last month, they remain impressively high as he enters his 15th month as Governor,” Greenberg said in a statement.
Voters may be responding to the recent battle over teacher evaluations. Those polled were split on the value of the teacher evaluation system being implemented across the state, with half of voters saying it will improve the quality of education. Fifty-seven percent believed the deal was fair to teachers.
Yet a plurality of those polled--45 percent--believe the Governor's actions has had no effect on the quality of education in the state, while 27 percent say he's made it more of a problem, and only 22 percent say he's improved it.
“A bare majority of voters thinks the new teacher evaluation system will improve the quality of education in New York, however, a sizable minority believes the new system will have no effect on the quality of education,” Greenberg said. “Clearly voters do not see the issue of teacher evaluations as being the 'be all and end all' to improving the quality of education for New York‟s public school students.
"Interestingly, while the Governor was publicly seen as a leader in the fight for the new evaluation system, education is one key issue area where voters are not giving the Governor high performance grades.”
On the issues, voters are now evenly divided on the issue of legalizing gambling--48 percent support, 49 percent opposed--down from 52-44 percent support last month. The same can't be said for the creation of a new pension tier and the Governor's proposed convention center out in Queens: 66 percent support the pension reform, while 60 percent support the Queens convention center.
“A constitutional amendment to legalize non-Indian casinos in New York divides voters virtually down the middle. However, this is not an issue that divides voters by region, party or ideology. In fact, voters of every region, party and ideology are nearly evenly divided,” Greenberg said. “Gender and age are more predictive of voters‟ positions, with men more supportive than women and young voters more supportive than older voters.
“Support remains strong – 66-29 percent – for creating a new pension system to save government employers money and ask future government employees to contribute more toward their retirement. Pension reform has the strong support of voters from every party and region, and even has majority support among voters from union households,” Greenberg said. “The Governor‟s proposed new Queens convention center also continues to enjoy two-to-one support, including at least 60 percent of voters from every region and party.”
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
New York voters are looking on the brighter side of life, according to a new Siena Poll released this morning. Confidence rose by 3.1 points in November, with national confidence rising slightly higher at 3.2 points.
“As holiday lights brighten the season, and national economic indicators including jobs reports, stock market increases and early holiday spending offer cheer, consumer confidence rose this month for the first time since May,” Dr. Doug Lonnstrom, Siena Research Institute's founding director said in the release.
“Good news, but hold your reindeer. Although we see confidence gains among Democrats and older New Yorkers, the overall willingness to spend remains well below the point at which optimism simply equals pessimism and the index is nearly five points under where the state’s confidence was this time last year," said Lonnstrom. "New Yorkers continue to be more pessimistic about the current financial landscape than the rest of the country but are more, albeit not very, positive about the future than the nation."
New Yorkers are also feeling the squeeze on core goods. Check out the graphic below--people are struggling at levels not seen since the depths of the Great Recession, according to Siena:
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
A new Siena poll of registered New York voters has Barack Obama beating Republican front-runner Mitt Romney by 25 points, and the president's favorability rating at its highest point since July.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
According to a Siena Research Institute poll released this morning, 66 percent of New York voters polled said the Occupy Wall Street protesters do not represent "the 99%"--meaning the vast majority of Americans not in the top one percent of earners. But that doesn't mean Bloomberg is going to be widely praised for booting the protesters this morning.
“By two-to-one, voters say that the Occupy Wall Street movement does not represent 99 percent of Americans,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “When it comes to how voters feel about whether the people engaged in the movement should be allowed to occupy public parks around the clock, the answer is ‘yes.’ By a 57-40 percent margin, including a majority of Democrats, independents and voters from every region, New Yorkers believe that the demonstrators should be able to stay in the parks all day and all night."
Looking at the results more closely, there are some interesting results. There is a pervading sense that the Occupation suffers from a diversity problem. But that hasn't stopped it from being viewed more favorably by black and Latino voters than by white voters. Some 56 percent of Latino's polled, and 51 percent of black voters, had a favorable opinion of Occupy Wall Street. Only 42 percent of white voters did.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
A new consumer confidence poll from the Siena Research Institute this morning shows New Yorkers' consumer confidence continuing to slide. Overall consumer confidence in the state slid .1 percent to 61.7 points.
“Slightly more New Yorkers now expect to lose ground financially than those that predict they will make economic progress this year and a majority volunteer a negative prognosis for the patient we call 'business conditions,'" said Siena's founding director Doug Lonnstrom in a statement.
Check out this table from the report:
Monday, October 03, 2011
According to a new Siena Research Institute poll, consumer confidence has fallen in eight out of nine regions across New York. Only the Albany area saw a surge in confidence, up three points from the last poll to 65.1 percent, making the Capital Region the second most confident in the state.
While Albany's current confidence went against the trend across the rest of the state, every area of New York agreed on one thing: the future looks worse.
“Let’s recap, debt ceiling crisis, national political turmoil, Europe hanging by a thread, Wall Street roller coaster and no new jobs in sight, no surprise the third quarter saw confidence drop in almost every region in New York,” Douglas Lonnstrom, Siena College professor and SRI Founding Director, said in a statement. “While Albany is far from a robust economy, the capital region stands alone this quarter with an increase in current confidence. Most concerning is the universal decline in future confidence this quarter with huge drops in Binghamton, NYC, Utica and Mid-Hudson.”
Thursday, September 29, 2011
With the state's budget crunching giving state officials leave to look for interesting revenue streams, New Yorkers appear to support at least one of Governor Cuomo's ideas. According to a Siena Reseach poll released today, 57 percent of the respondents said they would support a constitutional change to allow gambling outside of Native American reservations in New York.
Nearly three-quarters of those polled believe the move will create significant jobs and bring in major revenue for the state. This, despite a majority of those polled agreeing that bringing gambling to New York will also bring additional crime and gambling addiction.
“Majorities of Democrats and Republicans, and of residents of every region of the state, support allowing Vegas-style casinos to be built here in New York. While there is concern about crime and compulsive gambling, the need for jobs and government revenues appears to far outweigh the downsides according to most New Yorkers and voters,” Don Levy, Siena Research Institute's director, said in a statement.
While Governor Cuomo appears to be supportive of the measure, New York City's mayor Michael Bloomberg has called the move "regressive" and is not in favor of making it legal.
Monday, September 19, 2011
By Yasmeen Khan
Nearly three-quarters of New York City residents said they prepared their households for Tropical Storm Irene, according to a new Siena poll out today. That means they stocked up on extra food and water, and kept flashlights and extra batteries on hand. More than half of city residents also prepared a "go bag" with clothes, medicines and important papers. Less than half said they had an emergency plan in place.
Monday, September 19, 2011
A new poll released today showed the impact felt by Hurricanes Irene and Lee affected nearly one-in-two people. A Siena Research poll released this morning said 47 percent of respondents said they were affected by the storms, but nearly two-thirds say they're no more prepared than prior to the storms.
“From Long Island, into the city, up the Hudson and along the Susquehanna, this storm will be remembered for a long time,” said Siena Research Institute's director Dr. Don Levy in a statement. “In the areas hit by the storms, three quarters said roads were blocked or inaccessible, sixty-one percent had wind damage, downed trees, or roof damage and sixty percent experienced power outages. A majority in those areas say that there was local flooding and public buildings were closed. Nearly four in ten had water in their basements. Over one in ten faced evacuation.”
Friday, September 09, 2011
The Times published its follow-up candidate profile of David Weprin in the race for congress out in Queens today. (I'm guessing Chris Hoeppner's not getting his piece in before Tuesday.)
As we did with Turner's piece yesterday, here's the money section that sort of speaks to the big issue for the Weprin campaign right now:
Among his worst setbacks, he said, was finishing last in the 2009 Democratic primary for comptroller, which he attributed to a lack of support from the Democratic Party machine.
But political operatives who worked with him in that race said he had proved to be a sometimes temperamental candidate.
They said he would miss scheduled meetings with black and Latino groups, only to be discovered spending time with Orthodox Jewish constituents. While he was very skilled at raising money, they said he was also absent-minded.
The Weprin campaign's missteps might be more of trait following the candidate from race to race than any sort of bad luck. And they seem to be taking their toll: Siena came out with their poll this morning showing Turner capturing the majority of the support of those polled, leading the former frontrunner Weprin by 6 points.
The big question will be how the Weprin camp responds this weekend. Mobilizing support from endorsers in labor and elected office, hitting the pavement in the district, using the poll for a last-minute fundraising push--all of these things would indicate a campaign that was still going for the gold.
If today's event today was any indication, things don't look good for Weprin. After the poll was released showing Weprin sliding into second place, the campaign held a "protest" against Donald Trump's endorsement of Bob Turner. In Midtown. Far, far away from the district that could be slipping through his fingers.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Poll results after the jump.
With only four days until election, Republican Bob Turner appears to have gained major ground in his race against Democrat David Weprin, according to the Siena Research Institute poll. Turner now leads Weprin 50-44 among likely voters, in a dramatic reversal from last month, when Siena had Weprin up 48-42.
“Republican Turner heads into the final days of the campaign with a six-point lead in this heavily Democratic district after having trailed Democrat Weprin by six points just four weeks ago,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters. Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he’s going to turn the race back around in the final days.”
A series of polls over the past few weeks showed the race tightening, though they were mostly from partisan polling firms or commissioned by the campaigns. Earlier this week, the New York Times pollster Nate Silver said that, based on available data, he was giving Weprin the slightest of edges.
"Over all, Mr. Weprin’s advantages are more tangible, which is why I would consider him a modest favorite given the ambiguity in the polling," Silver said in his article Wednesday. "But a victory by Mr. Turner would hardly be surprising. I always caution against drawing national implications from special election results, and would certainly do so here given the idiosyncrasies of the district. But it would represent a nice little notch in Republicans’ belts and a troubling data point for Democrats."
With this latest poll, Weprin's chances appear to be slipping, as Turner's call to send a message to Washington appears to be gaining major traction.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
A new Siena Research Institute poll released today says 64 percent of New Yorkers polled felt the government was more of a problem than a solution when it comes to national economic concerns. According to the poll results, a weak plurality--39 percent--thought Democrats have a better understanding of what needs to be done economically. A stronger plurality--43 percent--trust Democrats to do the right thing to improve the economic situation.
The down feeling might also have had something to do with the people being asked: 45 percent of those polled said they were not employed. Still, neither party looks particularly good on the economy to voters right now.
“Republicans tend to think that their party understands what needs to be done to address the economy and they trust elected GOP’s more than Democrats to do the right thing. Democrats tend to say the same about members of their party. But over a third of independents and a full quarter of all New Yorkers now say that neither party understands our problems nor warrants their trust,” Dr. Don Levy, Siena Research Institute's director, said in a statement.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
New Yorker's confidence in the economy is slipping, according to a poll released by the Siena Research Institute. Consumer confidence decreased 1.2 points in August, Siena found, even as buying plans for big-ticket items like homes and cars edged up.
"Right now the nation's future outlook is terrible. In New York we are more hopeful as our outlook rises to simply pessimistic. Still, despite the needle of sentiment pointing towards a double-dip recession, we may dodge that hurricane given an uptick in buying plans most especially for homes.”
We're doing better than the country as a whole, though, which fell to its lowest levels since 2008. The press release from Siena is after the jump.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
The president's job performance rating fell to a new low among New Yorkers in August, according to a recent Siena Poll. But the survey also showed that New Yorkers would still elect Barack Obama over any Republican hopeful.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
New York's still feeling good about Governor Cuomo continue, according to a new Siena Research poll, even as close to half of those polled feel the state's headed in the wrong direction.
Cuomo's favorability rating was at 69 percent, down slightly from 71 percent last month. His job performance remained unchanged from 58 percent approval in July.
"Sixty percent of Democrats, as well as 54 percent of Republicans and independents think Cuomo is doing an excellent or good job as Governor, as do a majority of voters from every region of the state," Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. "Rich or poor, male or female, black or white, young or old, union member or not, it just doesn’t matter, New Yorkers view Cuomo favorably."
The same can't be said for the state as a whole, even as the pessimism of last year has ebbed. “When asked about the direction of the state, voters are nearly evenly divided with 44 percent saying the state is on the right track and 47 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction,” Greenberg said in the statement. “Last month was slightly more positive, however, a year ago two-thirds of voters said the state was headed in the wrong direction.”
This poll was conducted August by telephone calls to 1,008 New York State registered voter between August 9th and 14th. Overall, the poll has margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
In a district that's enrolled more than three-to-one Democrat, Assemblyman David Weprin is leading his Republican opponent Bob Turner by six points, according to Siena Research Institute poll today, with neither candidate being favored by a clear majority.
“While Weprin holds a two-to-one advantage over Turner with Democrats, Turner has a nearly six-to-one lead among Republicans and a slim four-point lead with independent voters," Siena College pollste rSteven Greenberg said in a statement. "Queens voters favor Weprin by 10 points, while Brooklyn voters, who account for about one-third of the district, support Turner by a six-point margin.”
Turner's attempt to sway Jewish voters on the issue of Israel hasn't proven to be significantly effective, as Weprin has retained the support of 56 percent of the voters identifying themselves as Jewish. What Turner does have over Weprin is loyalty: 60 percent of voters said they were absolutely certain the would cast their vote for the Republican, with only 47 percent saying the same for the Democrat Weprin.
“Five weeks until Election Day, and this special election is a wide open race with both candidates trying to become more known to the voters of the district and earn their support,” Greenberg was quoted saying. “With a low turnout expected and limited media exposure in the nation’s most expensive media market, the test of both campaigns will be to mount strong voter identification efforts and effective get-out-the vote operations. The campaign that does a better job on those crucial campaign tasks will likely produce a victory for their candidate."
The poll consisted of 501 likely voters and had a 4.4 percent, plus or minus, margin of error. Siena said it intends to poll the district again prior to Election Day.
New York State legislators get big boost as Cuomo's favorable ratings inch even higher in latest Siena poll
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Governor Andrew Cuomo's approval ratings squeaked up even higher to 71 percent after what many have hailed as a highly successful first session, while the oft-maligned state legislature managed to improve in the eyes of a sizable number of New Yorkers.The state senate's favorable rating improved by 11 points, from 30 percent to 41, while the assembly shot up by 12 points, from a 26 percent favorable rating to 38. Of course, both houses are still unfavorable rating by a plurality of New Yorkers according to poll results.
“For years, the word most often heard to describe state government generally and the Legislature specifically has been ‘dysfunctional.’ In voters’ minds, the Governor and Legislature took a step forward this year to change that,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a press release. “Nearly half--including at least 45 percent of Democrats, Republicans and voters from every region--said this year’s session shows that state government has become less dysfunctional, while only 18 percent said it has become more dysfunctional and 28 percent said the level of dysfunction remains unchanged.”
Both ethics reform and tax cap legislation scored big points for putting the state on the right track according to the poll. A plurality of voters--46 percent--said the same for same-sex legislation, while 23 percent--the most for any of the pieces of legislation in the poll--thought it made no difference at all.
While Cuomo remains very popular, New Yorkers said the governor should give potential presidential ambitions a break. “Presidential speculation is nothing new for New York governors, however, voters think it is way too early to start printing Cuomo 2016 bumper stickers,” Greenberg said in the release. “At least 80 percent of voters from every party and region say that the speculation is premature and he should focus on his responsibilities as governor."
Overall, 48 percent of New Yorkers say we're headed on the right track--the best numbers since February 2007 according to the press release. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
PDF of the poll results below.