Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Friday, February 22, 2013
Tuesday, January 01, 2013
In the face of a new year, many of us take comfort in predictions of what's to come. Bill O'Toole is in the business of divining the future. He is the prognosticator of the 217-year-old J. Gruber's Hagerstown and Country Almanack.
Monday, October 08, 2012
Nate Silver looks at how predictions are made, and why experts and laypeople both mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. He explains that overconfidence is often the reason for failure, and if our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can too. In The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA.
Friday, October 05, 2012
Nate Silver is something of an authority on political forecasting. In 2008, his blog FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race in 49 out of 50 states. (In that same election, he was also right about all 35 senate races.) Bob sits down with Silver to talk about the 2012 election as well as his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't.
Monday, October 01, 2012
Political junkies, economists, baseball scouts, meteorologists, and basically everyone else in the world is constantly trying to predict the future. And yet with the overwhelming amount of data that came with the information age, forecasters are often wrong — if not completely shocked — by the results.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Have a great day today, listeners, because for many of you it will be your last — according to Harold Camping, a Californian radio preacher. He says the world will end tomorrow, May 21st. And his followers across the country are attempting to persuade unbelievers before it is too late. Harold Camping has predicted the end of the world before, and so have many others. Fortunately they haven't come true, so we have to ask, why do prophecy beliefs remain popular?
Monday, March 14, 2011
By Charlie Herman : Business and Economics Editor
People will bet on just about anything.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Before last week's election, we asked you to play pundit and pick the winning candidates and make other predictions. We now ask two contest winners to discuss their picks: Nick Rizzo, a freelance journalist who regularly writes about politics for Capital New York, and Jennifer Ambler, a Queens-based actress who also works as a temp/tax preparer/math tutor.
Friday, January 01, 2010
As we usher in the New Year, the big screen seems te be traveling backwards in time, bringing back remakes and sequels of classics from the 1980s. We talk with Rafer Guzman, the film critic for Newsday, about what’s in store at the box office in 2010. On tap: sequels to "Tron," "Wall Street," and "Iron Man" and "Sex and the City."