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The Empire

In battle districts, Cuomo leads big

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

In Siena's poll of four major state senate races, they also have head-to-head numbers showing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo with double-digit leads over his Republican opponent, Carl Paladino.

The poll also included Rick Lazio who, yesterday, announced he won't actively campaign on the Conservative Party line. But even if you give all of Lazio's votes to Paladino, Cuomo leads in all three state senate districts. But, it's worth noting that Cuomo is polling below 50 percent in two areas: state senate district 3 on Long Island and senate district 48 upstate.

The poll is of likely voters, not registered voters.

Here are the numbers:

State Senate District 3:
Cuomo: 49
Paladino: 23
Lazio: 20
undecided: 8

State Senate District 11:
Cuomo: 61
Paladino: 23
Lazio: 10
undecided: 7

State Senate District 44:
Cuomo: 52
Paladino: 30
Lazio: 9
undecided: 9

State Senate District 48:
Cuomo: 48
Paladino: 32
Lazio: 10
undecided: 11

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The Empire

Poll: Two Democratic State Senators Below 50 Percent

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Two Democratic State Senators are polling below 50 percent in head-to-head matchups against their Republican rivals, according to a new poll of likely voters from Siena Research Institute, signaling the GOP could recapture control of that legislative chamber.

Two Republican incumbents, Frank Padavan and Hugh Farley, lead their Democratic challengers by double digits.

Here are the numbers:

Senate District 3:

Incumbent Democrat Brian Foley: 44
GOP Lee Zeldin: 43
undecided: 13

Senate District 11:

Incumbent GOP Frank Padavan: 56
Democrat Tony Avella: 32
Undecided: 12
Note: Padavan splits Democratic voters with Avella, 44-46 percent.

Senate District 44:

Incumbent GOP Hugh Farley: 55
Democrat Susan Savage: 37
Undecided: 8

Senate District 48:

Incumbent Democrat Darrel Aubertine: 45
GOP Patty Richie: 48
Undecided: 7
Note: Richie leads Aubertine among independent voters, 60-32 percent.

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Digesting Politics Podcast

Digesting Politics: Polarizing Poll Numbers

Thursday, September 23, 2010

WNYC's Brian Lehrer, Bob Hennelly and Azi Paybarah discuss the latest in local politics, including recent opinion polls that showed markedly different results in New York's gubernatorial race, the viability of Carl Paladino's proposals, and the issue of immigration in New York's statewide races.

Comments [2]

WNYC News

New Poll Finds Cuomo Holds Comfortable Lead Over Paladino

Thursday, September 23, 2010

A new poll out finds Democrat Andrew Cuomo 26 points ahead of his Republican gubernatorial challenger Carl Paladino, markedly different results from a poll released on Wednesday's that showed the race in a statistical dead heat.

Comments [2]

The Empire

Q poll: Paladino Trails Cuomo by Only 6 Points

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Only six points separates Republican Carl Paladino and Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the New York governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released this morning.

Cuomo leads Paladino 49-43 percent. While both candidates have stressed their independence from Albany's political establishment, Paladino, a commercial real estate developer from Buffalo leads Cuomo, the state's attorney general, among independent voters, 49-43 percent.

Also, Paladino voters seem more dedicated to voting for him, than Cuomo voters.

From the poll's crosstabs:

1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

Made up / Might Change

Cuomo: 77-23
Paladino: 81-18

It's worth noting that the poll is based on responses from "likely voters," while other polls released by Quinnipiac, Siena and other outlets often use "registered voters," which is a lower standard for respondents to meet. The other "registered voters" polls have Cuomo leading by as much as 16 points over Paladino.

This poll was conducted with responses from 751 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

General Handicapping

Friday, September 17, 2010

Liz Benjamin, host of Capital Tonight, blogger, and Daily News columnist, and Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist college poll preview the general elections in New York.

Comments [20]

The Empire

Poll: McMahon Gaining on Blumenthal

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Over in Connecticut, Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon is cutting down the lead against Democrat Dick Blumenthal.

According to Quinnipiac, McMahon trails Blumenthal by six points, 51 - 45 percent with 3 percent undecided.

Blumenthal, the state's attorney general, had lead by 9 points in an earlier poll from Rasmussen and as much as 10 points in a Quinnipiac poll from July. McMahon, a former executive with the World Wrestling Entertainment, has been bombarding voters with flyers, attacking Blumenthal's credibility, a lingering issue from his misstatements about having served "in" Vietnam.

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The Empire

NYT: NYers Split on Park51, But Not Voting on It

Friday, September 03, 2010

Trends in the NYT poll on New Yorker's attitude to the Park51 project.

From the New York Times poll today about people's attitudes towards building an Islamic center near Ground Zero:

38 percent of those who expressed support for the plan to build it in Lower Manhattan said later in a follow-up question that they would prefer it be moved farther away, suggesting that even those who defend the plan question the wisdom of the location.

And, despite the ability for New York politicians to garner national attention on the issue, it's not on top of New Yorkers' voting agenda.

Even though both Republican candidates for New York governor, Rick A. Lazio and Carl P. Paladino, have sought to make the Islamic center an issue in the race, two-thirds of those polled said it would have no influence on how they made their choice for governor. The poll showed that the economy and jobs remained the most pressing concerns.

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The Empire

Q poll: Cuomo Leads; Voters Want Budget Details

Wednesday, September 01, 2010

A Quinnipiac poll today says voters want more budget info from Cuomo. (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Cuomo leads his two Republican opponents by more than thirty points, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

Cuomo leads former LI congressman Rick Lazio 57-25 percent; Cuomo also leads upstate commercial real estate developer Carl Paladino 60-23 percent.

Independent voters are trending towards Cuomo, 55-23 percent over Lazio, and 54-24 percent over Paladino.

The poll did not ask Republican voters which candidate, Lazio or Paladino, they prefer in the GOP primary.

Cuomo is taking a knock for not speaking out more on the state budget: 32 percent of voters say he's "politely deferring" to the current governor; 44 percent say Cuomo is "ducking" the issue.

The Q poll asked if voters think Cuomo has "done enough to explain" his plan to fix the budget. 23 percent said yes, 63 percent said no. (Only 34 percent of Democrats said yes, 52 percent of Democrats said no.)

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The Empire

Q Poll Focuses on Park51; Lazio, Sometimes, Doesn't

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Rick Lazio, and David Malpass, at a Tea Party 365 candidate forum. (Azi Paybarah / WNYC)

Just a little more about the Q poll and Park51 debate:

The Quinnipiac poll today is likely to guarantee the Park51 debate will get more than enough coverage inside the daily papers tomorrow -- and by that, I mean right now -- even though some of the editorial pages have been criticizing candidates for focusing too much on the issue.

The person often credited with being one of the first to oppose the project is Rick Lazio, the GOP candidate for governor who has gone all over national TV and radio talking about the issue. In fact, he's been so attached to the issue that critics say it's overshadowed the other stuff he should be talking about.

The Post fired a warning shot across Lazio's bow, warning him to talk about issues voters care about, which they said his rival, Carl Paladino, is doing.

The Daily News said Lazio was "shameless and shameful in exploiting passions over a planned Islamic center and mosque near Ground Zero."

And the New York Times editorial board was equally direct: "New Yorkers should be offended by Mr. Lazio’s attempt to exploit ground zero images for political gain."

Lazio, I think, has re-calibrated his message.

During a Tea Party forum last night, Lazio was asked how he would protect New York State from terrorists. Lazio spoke about expanding the Ring of Steel security initiative in Lower Manhattan, and fixing the broken security cameras in train stations. He also said cellphone reception underground should be improved, so people could text law enforcement if they see something suspicious, thus ensuring a "real time" response to any potential threat.

At no point during his answer did he mention Park51, even though his campaign aides ads seek to tie the project to September 11, Hamas and terrorists.

But in a scrum with reporters after the event, Lazio said he wasn't changing his focus away from Park51. He said he doesn't need to change the perception held by "the editorial boards" because "I think this is about where the people of New York are."

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The Empire

Siena: Paladino Gains on Lazio, Both Trail Cuomo

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Rick Lazio's once 20-point lead over Carl Paladino among Republican voters has shrunk to thirteen points, according to a new poll from Siena.

Lazio, the GOP nominee leads Paladino, an upstate businessman who petitioned his way onto the ballot, 43-30 percent. That's down from the 40-20 percent lead Lazio had back in July.

Cuomo leads each of them in head-to-head match-ups, and in three-way matches.

Cuomo - 60
Lazio    - 26

Cuomo - 60
Paladino- 27

Cuomo                         - 56
Lazio [Republican]        - 19
Paladino [independent]  -12

Cuomo                        - 56
Lazio [Conservative]     - 16
Paladino [Republican]  - 14

One factor in the race could be the candidate's stance on the mosque and cultural center proposed near Ground Zero.

Twenty-two percent of voters say a candidate's position on this issue will have a "major impact" on their decision of whom to support. Thirty-seven percent say the issue will have "some effect," on their decision. Thirty-nine percent says it won't be a factor at all.

Sixty-three percent of voters say they oppose it, compared to 27 who support it. Interestingly, 64 percent say the developers have a right to build the project at its current location. Twenty-eight say there is no legal right.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Hispanic America

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Ceril Shagrin, Univision’s executive VP of Audience Measurement, Innovation and Analytics, talks about Univision's recent poll of Hispanic Americans, done in conjunction with AP, Nielsen, and Stanford University.

Comments [15]

Azi Paybarah

Who Opposes the Islamic Center ?

Thursday, August 05, 2010

WNYC

From the Siena poll today showing that 61 percent of New Yorkers oppose building an Islamic center near Ground Zero, a closer look at who the opposition is:

Catholics: 45-22 percent agree with opponents

Jews: 52-11 percent agree with opponents

Protestants: 43-16 percent agree with opponents

College educated: 44-22 percent agree with opponents

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Comments [1]

Azi Paybarah

Lazio: We'll Get Cuomo Below 50 Percent

Wednesday, August 04, 2010

WNYC

Conservative radio show host Laura Ingraham interviewed Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Lazio just now and asked him if he could win his race.

As Ingraham put it, “How can a Republican like you ever hope to win the gubernatorial race?”

Lazio answered: “This is a year when nobody wants to vote for an incumbent.”

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Azi Paybarah

Q Poll: Voters Don't Like Legislators, Don't Know AG Candidates

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

WNYC

Andrew Cuomo still holds a wide lead over his Republican gubernatorial challengers, in today's Quinnipiac poll.

Cuomo leads former Long Island congressman Rick Lazio 56 to 26 percent, with the race closest in the suburbs, 48 to 37 percent in favor of Cuomo. It's similar to Cuomo's lead over upstate businessman Carl Paladino, 55 to 25 percent, with the race closest in upstate where the split narrows to 44 to 34, favoring Cuomo.

But further down the ballot, things are more of a toss up.

Most noteworthy: voters are leaning towards ousting their incumbent legislator.

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Azi Paybarah

Q Poll: Obama is Down

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

WNYC

I'm not sure what kind of impact this will have in New York, but Quinnipiac's poll today puts the pendulum squarely in the Republican's corner:

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Azi Paybarah

Polling Rangel

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

WNYC

The first public poll in Rep. Charlie Rangel's race shows he's not invincible, but hovering with enough support to edge out any of his four Democratic opponents.

From The Hill:

A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday showed Rangel winning less than 40 percent of the vote in a primary race. It showed his job approval at 49 percent.

Adam Clayton Powell IV, Rangel’s closest competitor, drew 21 percent support.

It was the first poll of Democrats likely to vote in the Sept. 14 primary.

Having a crowded field would usually work to the benefit of an incumbent, since the opposition vote would be diluted among the competition. But Rangel's numbers seem particularly soft, which may explain why he's taking the step of trying to block at least one opponent, labor activist Jonathan Tasini, from getting on the ballot.

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Azi Paybarah

Polling the AG Race

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

WNYC

“I just got polled,” a reader emailed recently.

This reader--who still has a landline in their Manhattan apartment and is a registered Democrat--took detailed notes about the call, including the fact that the Andrew Cuomo’s last name was pronounced “Coo-mo” by the caller.

The survey was about the AG’s race, and they were testing, among other things, which attribute is most important in picking the next AG.

The choices:

 “Cuomo's best choice.”

“They are the only candidate who has identified investigated and prosecuted misdeeds on Wall Street”

“Most progressive candidate”

“Served in military”

“Most qualified”

“Know how to get things done in Albany”

“They will fight for people who can't fight for themselves”

“Put people of NY ahead of special interests”

“Proven record of protecting New Yorkers”

“Restore trust in government”

“Best chance to win in November”

“Someone from outside the system who will be able to clean up corruption and dysfunction in Albany”

“Created nationally recognized effort to combat drunk driving”

“Only candidate who has never run for office before”

I’d be interesting in seeing which of these qualities scored highest.

Also, the caller wanted to know which critical statement made by opponents already was most disconcerting.

“They don't understand how to police Wall Street”

"They work for a firm that donated money to political candidates to get access to government”

“Too liberal and don't represent New Yorkers”

“Too rich to be in touch with average New Yorkers”

“Did not strongly support reforming Rockefeller drug laws”

“Have been in Albany too long and won't be able to bring changes to state”

“Have donated money to Republican candidates”

“Once registered as Republican”

“Not supported a woman's ability to work part time while raising a family served as elected official”

For the most part, the candidates have been shaping their identities through free media and sparsely-watched debates. Feedback from these kinds of surveys will have a real impact once the paid media (i.e. television and radio ads!) start airing.

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Azi Paybarah

Poll: Democrats Down on Unions

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

WNYC

By a margin of 56-36, city voters said in a Quinnipiac poll they feel union workers are not doing enough to help the city during the economic downturn.

Interestingly, it's an opinion shared by most Democrats, who agreed 49-36 percent that union workers aren't doing enough to help the city.

Despite that seeming lack of public support, a majority of voters opposed layoffs for city workers, 68-27 percent. To balance the budget, 48 percent of voters said they support raising taxes. Thirty-six percent said cut services, and 16 percent were undecided.

The poll also had approval ratings for some officials in the city:

Michael Bloomberg's approval rating: 57-33, with 10 percent undecided.

John Liu's approval rating: 47-17, with 36 percent undecided.

Christine Quinn's approval rating: 45-27, with 28 percent undecided

Bill de Blasio's approval rating: 35-17, with 48 percent undecided

Ray Kelly's approval rating: 66-20 with 14 percent undecided

Joel Klein's approval rating: 37-41 with 22 percent undecided

The poll of 1,183 registered voters in the city was conducted from June 21-28 and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

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Azi Paybarah

Timing Rasmussen

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

WNYC

Rasmussen has a poll out showing Cuomo trouncing Lazio and Paladino, but they also include this note about when their telephone survey was conducted:

The survey was taken just after a New York Times report detailing how Cuomo has received large campaign contributions from special interest groups whose influence he has previously criticized and vowed to curb. But most New York voters are not following the story, although 59% describe Cuomo’s campaign contributors as at least somewhat important in terms of how they will vote in November. That includes just 22% who say it is Very Important.

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