The Brian Lehrer Show

Follow-Up-Friday: Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang on Midterm Polling

Friday, September 12, 2014

Pollster Sam Wang responds to FiveThirtyEight's midterm forecast.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Nate Silver Tells Us Who'll Win the Midterms

Monday, September 08, 2014

The man who called Obama’s 2012 victory crunched the numbers for this year’s midterm elections, and he let us in on his first round of predictions.

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The Takeaway

GOP Suffers in Polls Over Budget Battle Tactics

Thursday, October 17, 2013

The shutdown may be over, and the debt ceiling raised for now, but the effects of the last two weeks could be long-lasting—both economically and politically. Americans are not happy with the shutdown and they are blaming Republicans—at least that’s what the latest polling data suggests. Gary Langer runs Langer Research Associates, a nonpartisan polling group that directs polling for ABC News. He explains the latest findings.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Poll Readers Beware

Friday, August 30, 2013

Greg David, director of the Business and Economic Reporting Program at CUNY Journalism School, contributor to Crain's New York Business and author of Modern New York: The Life and Economics of a City (Palgrave Macmillan, April 2012), says the results of pre-election polls for local races need to be taken with a grain of salt. He also explains their spotty track records in predicting results.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Pollsters on Voting Blocs

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO), and Maurice Carroll, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute director, look at exit poll data on who voted, for whom, and why.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Suburban Voting Trends

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Larry Levy, executive director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, talks about the final National Suburban Poll, which measures the voting preferences of the nation's most influential swing voters, suburbanites.


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The Brian Lehrer Show

WNYC/Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Results

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University's Eagleton Institute of Politics, and Lindy Washburnsenior writer at The Record of Bergen County, discuss the results of the WNYC/Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Post-Debate Adjustments

Monday, October 08, 2012

Andrea Bernstein, WNYC political director during the 2008 campaign and current political coverage coordinator, talks about the post-debate polls and how the campaigns are re-setting.

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On The Media

Nate Silver on the Pitfalls of Prediction

Friday, October 05, 2012

Nate Silver is something of an authority on political forecasting. In 2008, his blog FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race in 49 out of 50 states. (In that same election, he was also right about all 35 senate races.) Bob sits down with Silver to talk about the 2012 election as well as his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

Prefuse 73 - Pagina Cinco

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The Brian Lehrer Show

Explainer: "Skewed" Polling

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Republicans say that recent polling data favoring Obama is skewed. Jonathan Bernstein, political scientist who writes A Plain Blog About Politics, fact-checks the claim, and explains the tricky nature of party ID in polls.

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Looking to November, Disability Advocates Call for Accessible Polling Places

Monday, August 27, 2012


A Federal Court Judge will hear testimony Monday about how to make city polling sites more accessible for people who use wheelchairs or have vision impairments.

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On The Media


Friday, August 10, 2012

Twitter has teamed up with Republican and Democratic polling firms, as well as another company called Topsy, to create a new tool called the Twindex. It offers a new way to gauge the political leanings of likely voters. Bob speaks with Adam Sharp, Twitter's manager for government and politics.

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The Brian Lehrer Show

How To Read Early Election Polls

Friday, May 25, 2012

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics, discusses some of the discrepancies in early presidential polling, and how best to understand the numbers.

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The Takeaway

Economy or Personality? The Numbers Behind Obama and Romney's Vulnerabilities

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

As they look towards the general elections, it's clear that President Obama and GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney both face very specific problems. Romney’s problem is one of personality: no candidate in the modern polling era with personal favorability ratings as low as his has ever won the presidency. Obama doesn't have a popularity problem, but he does face some trouble with the economy: no incumbent president has ever won re-election with unemployment rates as high as they are likely to be in November. Carroll Doherty, associate director for Pew Research Center, and Kenneth C. Davis, author of "Don't Know Much About History," explain what is behind these numbers.


The Takeaway

Super Tuesday Exit Polls Hold Clues for General Election

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Super Tuesday results aren't just about state-by-state winners and losers -- or about securing delegates. They're also a crucial barometer of what matters to voters and why. Detailed exit polls results from contests around the country paint a complex picture about what issues voters of different demographics are most passionate about and who they believe will be represent their interests.  


The Brian Lehrer Show

How Campaigns 'Microtarget' You

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Recap from It's a Free Country.

Welcome to Politics Bites, where every afternoon at It's A Free Country, we bring you the unmissable quotes from the morning's political conversations on WNYC. Today on the Brian Lehrer Show, Sasha Issenberg of Slate talks about the different ways campaigns—including the Obama administration—are using data analytics to target their message to voters.  He wrote the piece titled, "Dreamcatcher."

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The Empire

Dem polling firm has Weprin up over Turner by 8

Friday, September 02, 2011

From the press announcement from the Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group:

If the upcoming special election for Congress in New York’s Ninth District was held today, Democrat David Weprin would defeat Republican Bob Turner and hold the seat for his party, according to our latest poll of 400 likely special election voters in the district. The poll was conducted August 30-31, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Weprin Leading and Nearing Majority Support

Democrat David Weprin currently leads Republican Bob Turner by an eight-point margin, 47% to 39%, with 14% still undecided in the special election contest.

Weprin Ahead Despite Being Less Known

Turner is familiar to 66% of voters in the district thanks to his previous run for the seat, with 40% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Weprin is familiar to fewer voters (59%), with 35% rating him favorably and 24% unfavorably.

District Prefers Democrat as Representative
By a wide, 14-point margin, voters here prefer a generic Democratic candidate for Congress (46%) over a generic Republican candidate (32%).

This poll follows up from the Republican polling released yesterday that showed the race tied. National Democratic congressional spokesperson Josh Schwerin had this to say:

This poll confirms what we always knew, voters are rejecting Bob Turner’s radical agenda of cutting Medicare and Social Security and leaving 9/11 volunteers out in the cold, while protecting tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires.


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