Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Saturday, November 10, 2012
On this week’s episode of Gabfest Radio from Slate and WNYC, Political Gabfest panelists Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz discuss President Obama’s election to a second term, some of the factors that led to his victory over Mitt Romney, and ballot wins for same-sex marriage and legalizing pot (well, at least until the Feds get involved).
Friday, November 02, 2012
Less than a week before the election, many observers across the political spectrum say that they believe a victory for President Obama is highly likely. Others say that it's reckless to predict the future with any kind of certainty. Nate Silver of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog explains to Brooke the difference between forecasting and fortune-telling, and defends his belief that an Obama win seems probable.
Grizzly Bear & Feist - Service Bell
Monday, October 01, 2012
Political junkies, economists, baseball scouts, meteorologists, and basically everyone else in the world is constantly trying to predict the future. And yet with the overwhelming amount of data that came with the information age, forecasters are often wrong — if not completely shocked — by the results.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Incumbent parties tend to fare poorly in elections when consumers feel like they're paying an arm and a leg at the pump. But it's more complicated than that.
Friday, September 16, 2011
Republican Bob Turner defeated Democrat David Weprin to take control of New York’s 9th congressional district, the seat vacated by Anthony Weiner in June. This was widely reported as a sign that voter frustration with President Obama had trickled down into New York politics. Bob talks to political stat guru Nate Silver about whether he thinks this is a sign of things to come, or just over-extrapolation by the press.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Poll results after the jump.
With only four days until election, Republican Bob Turner appears to have gained major ground in his race against Democrat David Weprin, according to the Siena Research Institute poll. Turner now leads Weprin 50-44 among likely voters, in a dramatic reversal from last month, when Siena had Weprin up 48-42.
“Republican Turner heads into the final days of the campaign with a six-point lead in this heavily Democratic district after having trailed Democrat Weprin by six points just four weeks ago,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters. Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he’s going to turn the race back around in the final days.”
A series of polls over the past few weeks showed the race tightening, though they were mostly from partisan polling firms or commissioned by the campaigns. Earlier this week, the New York Times pollster Nate Silver said that, based on available data, he was giving Weprin the slightest of edges.
"Over all, Mr. Weprin’s advantages are more tangible, which is why I would consider him a modest favorite given the ambiguity in the polling," Silver said in his article Wednesday. "But a victory by Mr. Turner would hardly be surprising. I always caution against drawing national implications from special election results, and would certainly do so here given the idiosyncrasies of the district. But it would represent a nice little notch in Republicans’ belts and a troubling data point for Democrats."
With this latest poll, Weprin's chances appear to be slipping, as Turner's call to send a message to Washington appears to be gaining major traction.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
— Nate Silver, blogger for The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight blog, on The Brian Lehrer Show
Monday, January 24, 2011
By Azi Paybarah
Nate Silver has a counter-intuitive take on why Andrew Cuomo is proceeding so cautiously into his first budget presentation: despite the large election he won, he isn't coming to Albany with much of a mandate.
Appearing on the New Yrok Times Close-Up this weekend, Silver said:
Cuomo won a weird election. it was more of an anti-[Carl]Paladino vote. It wasn't really a mandate, despite the size of the margin. He had a very low turnout throughout the state. So, he's still introducing himself to New Yorkers. And I don't think we've really fully formed our opinions about him yet. So I think, especially now, his first major action - the way it's portrayed - could shape perceptions of him for months.
It is true that Cuomo won a large margin without doing much to raise the profile of the race. (He declined several opportunities to appear on national tv shows, or to give lengthy, possibly news-making speeches in places like Crain's business breakfast or the Association for a Better New York.)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
By Azi Paybarah
Mostly Republicans, according to Democratic consultant Jerry Skurnik, who emailed this missive to reporters this morning:
"With 92% of EDs [election districts] reporting, turnout for Democratic Attorney General is 591,833, which probably means an overall turnout of about 13 percent. GOP Gov Primary has 439,555, which probably mean about 18 percent.
"This is consistent with national trend of Republican Primary turnout being much better this year than Dem turnout. Some people think this means a lot. Others (like Nate Silver) think it doesn't mean much."