Jerry Skurnik

The Empire

Did Monserrate (allegedly) get his money's worth from LIBRE?

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Manhattan US Attorney accused former State Senator Hiram Monserrate of using a publicly-funded nonprofit group as an extension of his campaign operation. One charge was that Monserrate used the group, LIBRE, to register new voters in the 2006 Democratic primary he waged against State Senator John Sabini.

Monserrate lost that race, but replaced Sabini two years later.

Number cruncher and political consultant Jerry Skurnik dove into the indictment against Monserrate, and Skurnik's own voter file for the Jackson Heights district, to see if things added up.

The US Attorney said Monserrate paid LIBRE $109,000 for registered new voters for the 2006 race.

According to Skurnik, Monserrate did not get much bang for his buck.

Skurnik, writing on Room8:

I discovered that 1,548 registered during that period and that 1,138 registered as Democrats. Those numbers are close to Justice Department figure of 1,000. Remember, some people registered without the assistance of LIBRE.

But of the 1,138 new Democrats, only 202 voted in the 2006 Primary, not the 1,000 that the government says was in the LIBRE database.

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The Empire

Who Voted Yesterday?

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Mostly Republicans, according to Democratic consultant Jerry Skurnik, who emailed this missive to reporters this morning:

"With 92% of EDs [election districts] reporting, turnout for Democratic Attorney General is 591,833, which probably means an overall turnout of about 13 percent. GOP Gov Primary has 439,555, which probably mean about 18 percent.

"This is consistent with national trend of Republican Primary turnout being much better this year than Dem turnout. Some people think this means a lot. Others (like Nate Silver) think it doesn't mean much."

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