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Eric Dinallo

The Empire

Predictions for the NY Primaries

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

A few brave souls, including Carl Paladino's campaign manager, my mom, and Newsday reporter Reid Esptein, offered their predictions on tonight's races.

The consensus from the predictions (submitted before polls closed) is that Tea Party-backed Carl Paladino overtakes Rick Lazio in the Republican primary; progressive Eric Schneiderman holds off the opposition in the Democratic attorney general's race, Rep. Charlie Rangel cruises to re-election; embattled State Senator Pedro Espada succumbs to unified opposition, and former State Senator Hiram Monserrate gets denied a return to the legislature.

We'll see.

Anyway, here are the predictors (If I missed yours, stick it in the comments section):

NY GOP GOV PRIMARY

Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
56: Lazio
44: Paladino

Operative Eric Kuo
55: Lazio
44: Paladino

Publisher/Editor Michael Schenkler
53: Lazio
47: Paladino

My Mom, Myra Paybarah
53: Lazio
47: Paladino

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
56: Lazio
40: Paladino

Former Attorney John Ohara
57: Paladino
43: Lazio

Consultant Evan Stavisky
55: Paladino
45: Lazio

Consultant Bob LIff
54: Paladino
46: Lazio

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
54: Lazio
46: Paladino (or "Sith Lord Palpatino" as Naparstek calls him)

Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
53: Paladino
46: Lazio
1: Other

Pollster Peter Feld
53: Paladino
47: Lazio

Paladino's Campaign Manager Michael Caputo
52: Paladino
48: Lazio

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
52: Paladino
48: Lazio

NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
51: Paladino
49: Lazio

Operative Michael Fragin
51: Paladino
48: Lazio

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
49: Paladino
47: Lazio
3: Other

AG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

My Mom, Myra Paybarah
46: Schneiderman
20: Brodsky
17: Rice
11: Coffey
6: Dinallo

Former Attorney John Ohara
44: Schneiderman
41: Rice
5: Brodsky
5: Coffey
5: Dinallo

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
39: Schneiderman
31: Rice
13: Cofffey
8: Brodsky

Consultant Evan Stavisky
38: Schneiderman
32: Rice
15: Coffey
9: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Operative Eric Kuo
38: Schneiderman
35: Rice
21: Coffey
3: Dinallo
2: Coffey

NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
36: Schneiderman
31: Rice
14: Coffey
13: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
35: Schneiderman
28: Rice
18: Coffey
15: Brodsky
5: Dinallo

Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
35: Schneiderman
25: Rice
20: Coffey
12: Brodsky
8: Dinallo

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
33: Schneiderman
31: Rice
16: Coffey
14: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
32: Schneiderman
28: Rice
19: Coffey
13: Brodsky
8: Dinallo

Consultant Bob Liff
28: Schneiderman
21: Rice
19: Dinallo
16: Brodsky
6: Coffey

Operative Michael Fragin
28: Rice
27: Schneiderman
19: Coffey
13: Dinallo
10: Brodsky

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
28: Scheiderman
26: Rice
19: Brodsky
18: Coffey
9: Dinallo

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
26: Rice
25: Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
17: Coffey
13: Dinallo

Pollster Peter Feld
29: Rice
27 Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
13: Dinallo
12: Coffey

NY-1 GOP PRIMARY

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Altschuler
42: Cox
4: Demos

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
40: Altschuler
34: Cox
26: Demos

NY-13 GOP PRIMARY

Pollster Peter Feld
62: Grimm
38: Allegretti

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Grimm
46: Allegretti

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
55: Grimm
45: Allegretti

NY-14 DEM PRIMARY

Pollster Peter Feld
83: Maloney
17: Saujani

Former Attorney John Ohara
73: Maloney
27: Saujani

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
68: Maloney
32: Saujani

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
66: Maloney
34: Saujani

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
54.5: Maloney
45.5 Saujani

NY-15 DEM PRIMARY

Consultant Bob Liff
59: Rangel
21: Powell
8: Johnson
7: Tasini
5: Morgan

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
48: Rangel
30: Powell
11: Tasini
6: Morgan
5: Johnson

Former Attorney John Ohara
47: Rangel
38: Powell
6: Johnson
6: Tasini
3: Morgan

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
44: Rangel
24: Powell
18: Johnson
8: Morgan
6: Tasini

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
41: Rangel
26: Powell
17: Johnson
9: Tasini
7: Morgan

Conservative GOV PRIMARY

Former Attorney John Ohara
55: Largio
45: Lazio

Consultant Bob Liff
67: Lazio
33: Largio

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Lazio
44: Largio

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
65: Lazio
35: Lorigo

GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Gillibrand)

Consultant Bob Liff
41: Blakeman
40: Malpass
19: DioGuardi

Aaron Naparstek
41: Malpass
40: DioGuardi
29: Blakeman

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
34: DioGuardi
33: Malpass
32: Blakeman

GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Schumer)

Consultant Bob Liff
61: Berntsen
39: Townsend

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Berntsen
44: Townsend

DEM PRIMARY US SENATE

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
95: Gillibrand
4: Goode

Consultant Bob Liff
78: Gillibrand
22: Goode

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
77: Gillibrand
23: Goode

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode

Former Attorney John Ohara
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode

State Senate: 30

Consultant Bob Liff
55: Perkins
45: Smikle

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
55: Smikle
45: Perkins

Former Attorney John Ohara
56: Perkins
44: Smikle

State Senate 31 (Schneiderman's Seat)

Consultant Bob Liff
48: Espaillat
41: Levine
8: Lewis
3: Munoz

State Senate 33

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
45: Rivera
42: Espada
2: Padernatch

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Rivera
41: Espada
0: Padernacht

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
50: Rivera
46: Espada
4: Padernacht

State Senate: 39

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
75: Moya
25: Monserrate

Consultant Bob Liff
66: Moya
34: Monserrate

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Moya
44: Monserrate

State Senate: 10

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
61: Huntley
39: Nunes

Consultant Bob Liff
53: Huntley
47: Nunes

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The Empire

An AG Ad for Buffalo

Friday, September 10, 2010

One of the knocks against Democratic Attorney General candidate Eric Schneiderman is that his policies and base of support are so New York City-centric (which is to say, Manhattan-centric) that he may not attract voters in the suburbs or upstate. (For example, he voted against a property tax cap and wants to end the process where prisoners sent upstate are considered upstate residents for purposes of census information and drawing legislative district lines.)

Schneiderman's latest ad is, in a way, pushing against that perception. The ad is called Buffalo Endorsements, and features Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and the county's comptroller, Marc Poloncarz, who are proven local vote-getters.

But Buffalo is one of the five biggest cities in the state, making more of a subset of Schneiderman's urban base, rather than an expansion of it.

Other geographical notes about the race:

District Attorney Kathleen Rice is from Nassau County, and property taxes are a huge issue there; Sean Coffey is from Buffalo and is campaigning heavily there; Assemblyman Richard Brodsky of Westchester has a presence upstate and on Long Island. The other candidate in the race, Eric Dinallo, is well-known among Wall Street types, and racked up a slew of endorsements from Democratic chairmen representing rural - but incredibly small - upstate counties.

(Disclosure: Schneiderman’s father Irwin Schneiderman, who has been a significant donor to his son’s campaign, is a long-time member of the WNYC Board of Trustees and has been a generous donor to the station over the years.)

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The Empire

Rice, Leading AG Field in Money, Goes on TV

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Kathleen Rice

Crowley for Congress' Flickr page

Kathleen Rice, getting endorsred by Queens Democratic officials

Kathleen Rice maintains her financial edge in the five-way Democratic primary for Attorney General, as she and another well-funded rival, private attorney Sean Coffey, launched television ads.

Rice, the Nassau County district attorney, ended the 32-day pre-primary filing with $4,424,391.33 on hand, with more than $623,267.47 being raised in this latest filing. She spent about half that amount, or $368,630.06. Among her expenses were $99 at Bergdorf Goodman's, for "clothing for a film shoot," according to records the campaign filed with the State Board of Elections.

But a campaign spokesman said they inaccurately described the expense. It was actually for a hairdo Rice received before a televised debate, campaign spokesman Eric Phillips told WNYC.

Rice also launched her first ad of the campaign season. It's a 30-second biopic, with a man's baritone voice telling viewers, "If anyone thought Kathleen Rice would be a pushover as Long Island's first woman district attorney, they were wrong."

No one has raised that issue with Rice during the AG race -- if anything, she's been accused of being too tough on drug offenders, and not supporting a repeal of the Rockefeller Drug Law earlier. But the ad allows Rice to underscore the point that she is a woman: the only one in this race and one of the only ones running statewide for Democrats (the other is appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand).

State Sen. Eric Schneiderman of Manhattan ends the filing period with $2,191,966.57 on hand. He raised $263,646.92, and spent more than half of that, $182,930.85, this period. Schneiderman is not airing ads. His biggest expense in this filing was for a $22,500 "database" from Voter Activation Network.

Assemblyman Richard Brodsky of Westchester transferred $966,576.30 from his Assembly re-election campaign account into his attorney general account. That helped him end the filing period with $1,512,534.70 [figure corrected] on hand. Among his $93,961.91 in expenditures this period was a $13,023.20 poll from the Washington-based Lake Research Partners.

Former State Insurance Superintendent Eric DiNallo has $1,627,233.68 on hand, after raising $109,231.31. But he spent more than he raised: $170,496.48.

Among DiNallo's notable expenditures was $22,500 on a voter file from Smartvan NY, and $324 on Google Adwords. He's not running ads yet, but his campaign is purchasing archival video. There was a $321 purchase of "archive video" from a place called Video Monitoring Service. Another $80 was spent purchasing "archive video" from New York 1 News.

A campaign spokeswoman told WNYC they had purchased footage from the 2006 attorney general debate, for preparation. They also paid $500 for "photo permission" to Nathaniel Brooks, better known as the New York Times photographer based in Albany who has taken many memorable photographs, including this front-page image of Gov. David Paterson's troubled aide, David Johnson, which caused quite a stir.

The biggest spender in this cycle was Coffey, the attorney in private practice who is basically self-funding his campaign, and airing television ads.

Coffey, again, lent his campaign $1 million, helping him end the filing period with $3,162,032.49. He spent $824,028.22 in this period.

Coffey's expenditures include $20,462.12 on polling from Lables & Lists Inc.

But the real big expenditure --  besides the five-figure fees to consultants like the Mirram Group -- was $286,600 for television ads with GMMB (coincidentally, that's the same firm Anthony Weiner used to create some memorable ads during his 2005 mayoral race).

In Coffey's ad, black and white images of him slowly fade in and out of the screen as a narrator talks about his military record and his record as "a lawyer who took on Wall Street."

"New Yorkers don't need another politician seeking office, they need an attorney general seeking justice," the narrator says, highlighting Coffey's lack of political experience as an asset.

Public opinion polls show that none of the candidates are really known to the public. So, much of the money candidates are raising will probably be unleashed around Labor Day, when people return from vacation and realize that one of the most sought-after offices in New York State, if not the country, is up for grabs.

UDPATE: An informed reader notes that the money Coffey spent on TV ads with GMMB was for the "ad buy," since the firm purchases airtime for the ad creator working for the campaign, Jimmy Siegel.

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