Researcher Questions Whether Pre-K Supply Meets Demand in NYC

More than 60,000 families have already applied for prekindergarten slots this coming fall, in a sure sign of demand before Friday's first deadline. But one high-profile researcher claims there may be many more families who need the service than the city estimated.

Bruce Fuller, an education professor at the University of California at Berkeley, released a research brief arguing the city failed to account for as many as 28,000 four year olds when it predicted in 2014 that 73,000 seats would be enough to provide “universal” access. The city doubled the number of full-day seats to 50,000 seats during its first wave of expansion last September, and has vowed to provide universal access this fall.

But Fuller, who looked at city and state data, claimed the administration left out approximately 23,000 children entering kindergartens run by Catholic, Jewish and other independent schools. Fuller also claimed the city undercounted the number of charter school students entering kindergarten by between 3,000 and 6,000, based on consultations with the charter sector.

“They just failed to go back and re-estimate the fact that if you count private school kids you need about 96,000 to 97,000 seats,” he said.

City Hall claims its estimates were always more fluid, however. While the 73,000 figure did not include private and parochial school students, the city said it would adjust its figures and programming, “as necessary over time.” Mayoral spokesman Wiley Norvell said that adjustments were made when the city released its pre-k directory in March touting 75,000 seats.

“We've used exhaustive measures to anticipate demand, from patterns in our kindergarten enrollment, to data from publicly-funded early education and childcare programs, to growth patterns in our school districts,” he said. He added that Fuller's three-page report "has no connection to what's actually happening on the ground in New York City's second year of pre-k for all."

Earlier this year, the city acknowledged the potential for more religious schools to participate in universal pre-k. Starting in September, their programs will be allowed to take prayer breaks, a request by Orthodox Jewish schools. 

Mayor Bill de Blasio was asked about the latest pre-k estimates last month, and portrayed them as a moving target that's  "give or take 70 [thousand]. "But we will only know for sure when people vote with their feet by putting in their applications," he said.

The city said it's still committed to providing full-day pre-k to every family that needs it. Although the first application deadline is Friday, officials said there will be more opportunities for families to apply and ultimately enroll for the 2015-16 school year.

Bruce Fuller has carved out a distinct and skeptical point of view on pre-k over the years. He’s argued that universal pre-k isn’t the smartest use of resources because not all families benefit equally. He’s pointed to studies finding it helps low-income children more than their wealthier peers.

He angered the de Blasio administration when he released another paper this year that found 41 percent of pre-k slots were located in the richest fifth of the city’s zip codes, while 30 percent were in the poorest fifth. He suggested low-income neighborhoods might not have benefited as much because they tend to have more four year olds and fewer existing programs to build upon.

The city countered that nearly two thirds of its seats went to neighborhoods below the city’s median income of $50,000 for a family of four.