The Psychology of Predictions

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The 2016 election season is awash in bad political prognostications...just like every other election season. But if pundits are always so wrong, why do we keep listening? And more importantly, why do the media keep airing them? Philip Tetlock is a professor of psychology and management at the University of Pennsylvania, and has been studying political prognosticators for decades, first in his book Expert Political Judgment, and recently in Superforecasting. (He also runs the Good Judgment project.) Tetlock talks with Bob about good forecasters and bad forecasters and why the media encourages poor punditry. 

Song:

"Carnival of Souls" by Verne Langdon

"Newsreel" by Randy Newman