The Psychology of Predictions

On the Media | Mar 4, 2016

The 2016 election season is awash in bad political prognostications...just like every other election season. But if pundits are always so wrong, why do we keep listening? And more importantly, why do the media keep airing them? Philip Tetlock is a professor of psychology and management at the University of Pennsylvania, and has been studying political prognosticators for decades, first in his book Expert Political Judgment, and recently in Superforecasting. (He also runs the Good Judgment project.) Tetlock talks with Bob about good forecasters and bad forecasters and why the media encourages poor punditry. 

Song:

"Carnival of Souls" by Verne Langdon

"Newsreel" by Randy Newman

Be alert for scams. WNYC never asks for nor accepts money for coverage or interviews. Anyone making such a request does not represent WNYC.

Top Stories

Where Red Flipped to Blue

Actor and Playwright Tracy Letts on His Many Recent Roles; New Play About a Drag Queen's Presidential Run Amid the AIDS Crisis

Inside New York's bitter Republican civil war after blue wave

The "Gamification" Strategy Behind Lula's Victory

YOU ARE ONLINE