Forecasting the Future, from Politics to Global Events

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Supporters cheer as results are displayed as President Barack Obama's election night party Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012, in Chicago. President Obama defeated GOP challenger former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.

Despite all of their experience, experts specializing in predicting future trends and events often do quite poorly... about as well as random guessing. But some with little or no expertise do extremely well. Philip Tetlock, the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania discusses the exceptional prognosticators in this book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, which he co-wrote with Dan Gardner. Tetlock is also the co-founder of The Good Judgement Project.