The Three Key Choices Sen. Schumer Made to Save Obamacare

Democrats didn't have much of a hand to play when it came to preserving the Affordable Care Act health care law — also known as Obamacare.

Republicans have been promising to kill the law for seven years, and now they control both Houses and have President Donald Trump who is eager to sign a repeal.

But then Republicans delayed a vote Tuesday until after the 4th of July recess.

It's a temporary reprieve, but allies and experts said if Democrats are able to save Obamacare it could depend on three strategic decisions made by New York Senator, and Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer. 

1. Democrats refused to talk about repeal.

Early in the process, Schumer and the Democrats decided they were not going to help Republicans dismantle Obamacare.

"Until they back off repeal, there’s nothing we can talk about," Schumer said in an interview with CNN, laying down the party line.

The theory behind that was, why help Republicans take away health insurance coverage from millions of Americans — and maybe share in the blame — if the Republicans were going to do it on their own anyway?

Schumer got all 46 Democrats and two independents to back him. They continued to stick together throughout the debate.

But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell used it against them — to keep Democrats out of the loop completely.

Starting in May, Republicans began meeting behind closed doors to hash out the bill. They were looking for a compromise that could knit together at least 50 ‘yes’ votes out of the 52 GOP senators, knowing that Vice President Mike Pence would break a tie.

“They made it clear earlier that they were not interested in participating in this," McConnell said of Democrats. "They have no interest whatsoever.”

Democrats fumed at the secrecy. And their supporters grew angry.

Which prompted Schumer's second strategic decision.

2. Keep the whole coalition happy.

Since May, Ezra Levin has pleaded with Democrats to get tougher on Republicans.

Levin is the co-founder of Indivisible, which advises about 6,000 local anti-Trump groups around the country. Levin and his cohorts wanted Democrats to object to every routine motion and try to bring the Senate to a standstill.

“The time calls for procedural hardball,” Levin said. “If you’re going to call yourself a Democratic senator, that’s what we expect of you.”

But Schumer refused for weeks, even as Republicans met in secret and few details about their bill leaked. That’s been a pattern of Schumer's tenure so far — resisting Republicans and the immediate demands of the activist wing of his own party.

In January, activists revolted when 14 Democrats voted to confirm CIA director Mike Pompeo. They even marched outside Schumer's Brooklyn home.

They also wanted Democrats to filibuster Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. But Schumer waited before announcing a filibuster. The delay irritated party activists.

On healthcare, a growing number of senators, such as Connecticut's Chris Murphy, said Democrats needed to do more. That included ignoring investigations into Russian election interference to focus instead on healthcare.

"You will see us focus like a laser beam for the next two weeks on explaining a health care bill that already has an 18 percent approval rating," Murphy said earlier this month. "I think we can probably drive that down below 10 percent between now and when the vote happens."

But George Washington University Congressional scholar Sarah Binder said Schumer was balancing the two wings of his party.

Eight Democratic Senators are up for reelection in 2018 in states Trump won, Binder said, and they don’t want to be seen as obstructionists.

Schumer also does not want to give Republicans something to rally against, she said.

“In essence, you force Republican unity, right?" Binder said. "There’s a new enemy. It’s the Democrats.”

With the pressure on, Republicans have struggled to find something conservatives and moderates can agree on.

“It’s highlighted all the divisions within the Republican Party. So Democrats don’t have to be part of this story, right?”

Waiting also galvanized Democrats who were frustrated with Republican secrecy. West Virginia's Joe Manchin is one of the eight Democrats up for reelection in a red state.

“We’re all frustrated," Manchin said. "This process isn’t working. We were not included entirely."

Schumer and Senate Democrats held their fire until last week. With a vote nearing, Schumer finally agreed to throw the kitchen sink at Republicans, promising to protest by delaying Senate business.

It was largely symobolic. McConnell, a wily parliamentarian, responded by clearing the Senate calendar of any meaningful business.

“We would like to see Senate Democrats playing hardball faster," Indivisible's Levin said. "We’re happy they’re finally coming to the table now.”

And that's part of Schumer's third big decision... 

3. Democrats can kill the health care bill by letting Republicans kill the health care bill.

There's not much Democrats can do if Republicans find a bill they like. Republicans are using a budget maneuver — also used by Democrats to pass portions of Obamacare — to repeal the health care law. Once they get their 50 votes (and Pence), Democrats can't stop the bill.

The divisions between conservative Republicans and the rest of the party almost doomed the bill in the House, and the same scenario is playing out in the Senate. Schumer hasn't given Republicans a reason to rally against Democrats. And, as the vote neared this week, Senate Democrats and activists have raised their criticism to a crescendo right as Republicans needed to come together most.

Binder praised Schumer's leadership.

"I think it’s a tough job," Binder said. "And with those competing demands and potential unintended consequences of going full-bore against Republicans, I think he’s kind of threading the needle here."