Five Takeaways From the Ohio Primary

1. The stakes are high for the Democrats, and everyone knows it. Both Clinton and Sanders have been squeezing in extra events here, particularly in the northern and more working class areas of the state. Their aides have been frantically exchanging negative information about their opponents via email, and the ad battle has been intense. Sanders has an anti-NAFTA ad running in heavy rotation.  And while in Iowa the occasional voter raised NAFTA -- and Bill Clinton's support for it - in Ohio its on everyone's lips. With good reason -- the issue proved pivotal in Sanders' upset victory in Michigan. On Saturday night, Clinton made a last-minute pitch for trade barriers in Youngstown, home to a steel mill, to loud and raucous applause. Sanders supporters made a preemptive strike before the speech with a press release saying Clinton was wavering in the wind. But Karen St. Clair, wife of a steelworker, was satisfied that Clinton had said enough, early enough. "You can see how the days are getting shorter and they need to do something about the imports, so, yeah definitely something needs to be done." Asked if Clinton wasn't being drawn to Sanders, St. Clair replied: "Well I’m hoping not."

2. The gulf between the Democrats and the Republicans is as wide as its been in modern history. At Trump's rally in Cleveland Saturday, his supporters said they'd been driven to attend by the violence in Chicago. It was just more evidence that everyone, including us in the media, are against "them." And Trump used the violence to his advantage, interrupting his anti-immigrant speech by periodically drawing attention to protesters. "Get 'em out! Get 'em out!" Trump said, as the crowd rumbled "USA! USA! Trump! Trump!"

Across town, Clinton attended a town hall at the Olivet Baptist Church, where the crowd swayed to gospel, stood for Lift Every Voice and Sing, and prayed to the ministrations of a pastor, an Iman and a rabbi (who they periodically interrupted with "Amen!"). Clinton peppered her speech with the refrain "breaking down barriers." When a vet asked why her husband and father of three had been deported, Clinton reiterated her promise to end raids, breaking up immigrant families, deporting children, and deporting non-criminals. 

3. Socialism is a dirty word. In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Bernie Sanders won praise for taking on Wall Street and proposing free college tuition. In Ohio, voters frequently answered the question: what do you think of Bernie Sanders? with the short answer: "He's a socialist." No explanation needed. Democrats raised a concern that Sanders' health care and free-college proposals would lead to higher taxes for people like them.

4. Voters in the middle don't like Clinton.  But they may fear Trump even more than they dislike Clinton. In Stark County, where the vote always mirrors the winner, retired school teacher Mike Frain said he'd voted for George W. Bush twice and Barack Obama twice, but he was uncertain who to vote for this time around. Ohio Governor John Kasich most closely represented his views, but Frain wasn't optimistic about Kasich's ultimate chances. In which case he said: anyone but Trump. "We want a man like that sitting across from Putin?" he mused. "He worries me, I mean, I don’t know how he’s got all that support, truthfully, I mean what are they thinking?"

5. New York could matter. There are three rust belt states up for grabs Tuesday on the Democratic side -- Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio. How Clinton does here could settle the argument about her campaign -- or prolong it to the next big prize: New York, with more democratic delegates than any state that's voted so far.