Just Six Points Apart - Paladino Narrowly Trails Cuomo in New Poll

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Candidates for governor: Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino Candidates for governor: Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino (Chris Hondros/Getty/ Azi Paybarah)

In its first poll of likely general election voters, the Quinnipiac Poll found Republican nominee Carl Paladino narrowly trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 43-49 percent.

Just over a third of those polled had a favorable view of Paladino, another third do not, and another third didn't know enough about him to say. Men slightly favored Paladino over Cuomo, while Cuomo has a twenty-point edge over Paladino among likely women voters.

There's always a gender gap but this one is markedly bigger than usual. Politico's Ben Smith, who was a guest on today's Brian Lehrer Show, thinks it signifies that women are disillusioned about New York politics, while men are angry--and anger motivates people to vote. "You can kind of blame the enthusiasm gap on the gender gap," he said.

Smith said Paladino's popularity doesn't stem from his policy plans--which are thin. A number of core Republican establishment figures laughed out loud on Fred Dicker's radio show this morning when they heard Paladino planned to have them on a panel for state fiscal issues. "It points to the degree to which Paladino is running on raw emotion," Smith said.

The telephone poll of 751 likely New York voters was taken last Thursday to Monday, just as Paladino was launching his general election campaign after his surprising Republican primary victory. The poll's margin of error is 3.6 percentage points.

What do you think? Does Carl Paladino represent you? Who is the more formidable opponent in the governor's race?


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Comments [27]

martin from Queens

I enough of 'hacks" like Cuomo and David Patterson "another politician cheating on his wife"...PLEASE ENOUGH...GO PALLADINO..GO...I am so sick of the phoney media..I mean Cuomo is another
one who has no business experience in the real world...GO AWAY ANDREW!

Oct. 12 2010 04:19 PM
Edward from NJ

Or it could be 57% to 24%...

Sep. 23 2010 10:29 AM
Jemerson from Brazil

Hi. I just wanna speak that I like your radio. I hear all days I can, but Im still learing english. I hope that your work be very good! Hugs for all.. bye-bye

Sep. 22 2010 10:21 PM
Esteban Rodriguez from Brooklyn

New Democrat Cuomo has the same big problem as Obama when it comes to labor, especially teachers. He supports policies to destroy protections for public workers and privatize our public schools.

Teachers that vote for him are voting for their own demise.

Parents that vote for him particularly in low -income neighborhoods are voting for more of the deaf-ear solution to education that is employed by Mayor Bloomberg.

If your support public schools, send a message and vote for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins instead.

Sep. 22 2010 06:32 PM
Mer from Queens

Paladino says no abortions, even in cases of rape and incest. The guy is a fundamentalist and a hypocrite. So pious and yet peddles in horse porn.

Anyone who says, "anyone but Cuomo" is not thinking.

Sep. 22 2010 02:24 PM
Sophie from Poughkeepsie, NY

I'm not shocked that the Palladino poll numbers look the way they do. Palladino is using the "shock and awe" strategy, and it's working. Many folks seem ready for an abusive loudmouth to "lay down the LAW!". Forget about thinking things through, at least it seems that way in Dutchess County!

Sep. 22 2010 02:17 PM
Pawlie from Brooklyn

If this wackadoo gets elected, will Alec Baldwin move to France?

Sep. 22 2010 12:11 PM
JB from 10012

Paladino is a lunatic! I don't like Cuomo, but what's the choice here?

Sep. 22 2010 11:40 AM
Anna Sale, It's A Free Country

Daniel, they are a bunch of assorted bracelets, including silly bands. Azi Paybarah took note of these accessories in this story:

Sep. 22 2010 11:38 AM
Robert Martiin from Brooklyn

The elites in our country, and especially in New York, have effectively silenced any ideas that challenge their "progressive" ideas that incorporate the idea that the collective society's needs outweigh those of the individual. They are terrified by ideas that recognize individual rights as being of paramount importance. I foresee, and have already heard on WNYC, the beginnings of personal attacks on those that dare to contest the collective concepts of our well educated, highly sensitive, and I'm sure well-intentioned establishment.

Sep. 22 2010 11:15 AM
Mark from Mount Vernon

Cuomo is a nothing more than a ventriloquist dummy of the father we voted out.

He was running HUD when Subprime problems began. Clips have been aired of him encouraging people to buy homes when he knew they would default.

Sep. 22 2010 10:35 AM

New Yorkers could actually possibly elect this guy?

In addition, the "no government" candidate makes millions leasing office space to New York State.

Why didn't the segment mention these items, making it sound like he is legitimate?

Sep. 22 2010 10:32 AM
Amy from Bay Shore

I watched Paladino on CNN describe the misogynistic & racist emails (including bestiality & racist depiction of our president) he'd sent his friends as "careless" but part of the "nonsense" that goes on with his friends. If NY is seriously considering electing a candidate more right wing and dangerous to this state than any republican candidate in recent memory, then NY is in far more trouble than I could have imagined.

Sep. 22 2010 10:31 AM
Spence Halperin from Manhattan

AABC= Almost anyone but Cuomo.
Liberal Dem here. Paladino is not an option and I can't vote for "Status Cuomo." Familiar situation, I'd say.

Sep. 22 2010 10:28 AM

What is that on Paladino's wrist in the photo?

Sep. 22 2010 10:27 AM
jacobNY from brooklyn, NY

Poll is not surprising as most NY voters relate to Paladino's message and appeal - we are all angry and mad as hell at our elected officials

join my facebook page 'Paladino is my Pal for New york Governor'!/pages/Paladino-is-my-Pal-for-New-york-Governor/151788081518481?ref=ts

Sep. 22 2010 10:27 AM
April from Manhattan

Cuomo is sounding more like a Republican, which turns me off. Anti-Union, no more criticism of Wall St. or willingness to raise taxes on them to reduce the deficit and provide more services for the poor, elderly, disabled, mentally ill. If I'm wrong about these opinions, (don't follow NY politics as much as I should), I want to hear so from Mr. Cuomo.

Sep. 22 2010 10:22 AM
Daniel from Brooklyn

As Nate Silver pointed out, Lazio wasn't included in the Quinnipiac poll.

Sep. 22 2010 10:20 AM
Edward from NJ

So given the margin of error and the undecideds, this poll could be *perfectly accurate* and Cuomo could still win the election with 60%.

Sep. 22 2010 10:19 AM

Mike from Queens: Fracking is definitely one of the issues we'll discuss during our 30Issues/30Days series. Here's the tentative schedule:

Sep. 22 2010 10:19 AM
Progressives for Paladino from Bed Stuy

ABC = anyone but cuomo

Cuomo = arrogant, nepotistic, phony

Sep. 22 2010 10:18 AM
mike from queens

Does anyone know the canidates stance on hydraulic fracturing drilling?

Sep. 22 2010 10:14 AM

"another third didn't know enough about him to say."

Because Paladino's campaign didn't spread his name too far yet (outside of primary voters and BL listeners). Once he expands his campaigning and these people learn more about him, they will have a negative view of him, too.

Sep. 22 2010 10:13 AM
David from Great Neck

Don't take a Cuomo victory for granted. Remember 1970 when Buckley's brother was elected senator on the Conservative line on a "isn't it time we had a senator?" slogan. New Yorkers do fall for this stuff sometimes. Also, states like Massachusetts have elected people like Paladino (Ed King). Time to step up against this crowd!

Sep. 22 2010 10:13 AM
Michael from Brooklyn

Carl Paladino is quite the figure. One is almost interested in seeing him win the election. I have heard about his idea: 10% tax reductions, 20% reduction in government. Good talking points I suppose. But when I hear something like this, I wonder if Paladino has even been paying attention to the adventures in administration that our current governor has gone through? Where is he planning on making these cuts? Who is going to work with him? Does he expect that he can ride into office with a slight mandate and pull Albany out of the mud by its bootstraps? Spitzer talked a tough game and went after the legislature having enormous popularity and a sweeping mandate ... it's a cute idea that an angry contractor can fix our government.

Sep. 22 2010 10:13 AM
Gianni Lovato from Chatham

Never underestimate the pulling powers of a "maverick" with good sense of timing.
Nor the hysteresis of complacent democrats.

Sep. 22 2010 10:12 AM
Antonio from park slope

Oh this is the same Quinnipiac Pollers who had this program in a twist back when McCain was supposed to take NY back in the 2008 election...HA!

Sep. 22 2010 10:10 AM

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