Why Democrats Shouldn't Worry Too Much
Monday, June 14, 2010 - 10:57 AM
Pollster Peter Feld doesn't think the sky is falling for Democrats, despite the slippage Andrew Cuomo, Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand recorded amongst independents in today's Siena poll.
That's mainly because Republicans don't have a strong field this year. And the paid media hasn't started. Also, it's fair to say that polls like this will act as a motivating factor for Cuomo, Schumer and Gillibrand--all pretty aggressive campaigners in their own right.
"It would be normal for undecided voters to coalesce around a challenger once he becomes better known, and for the margin to narrow, but Lazio hasn't gone up. Hmmm. He certainly will, and if it's 60-24 now then a straight-line projection would yield something like 60-40, which would look like a big tightening. So the significant thing is Andrew going down and Lazio failing yet to consolidate.
"The slippage for Democrats is in line with national trends so it's not a shock to see all three of these go down in ratings. But obviously their opposition is in no position to capitalize -- and Schumer and Gillibrand are strong fundraisers with experience running competitive general-election campaigns, and are going to want to run up huge margins for purely competitive reasons. So while national trends may hold their numbers down, as would lack of voter enthusiasm for these foregone races, it's reasonable to think all three can reverse their slippage with paid media. If Cuomo shows some bold leadership, I bet he still has a shot to score in the higher 60s."