Streams

Megadisasters

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Florin Diacu, author of Megadisasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe, and Lee Clarke, a Rutgers professor and expert on dealing with disasters, take us through some of the epic upheavals of the past, and whether we’ve ever figured out how to effectively deal with disaster.

Guests:

Lee Clarke, and Florin Diacu,
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Comments [2]

Eric Singer from Pittsburgh, PA

If we don't look at the probability and likely quantity of injury and death from each particular event or scenario and allocate money towards prevention accordingly, then we are allocating on emotion. If we do use probability as a tool, we have the best chance overall of minimizing injury and death across all possible scenarios.

If we take money away from automobile safety (where there is a high likelyhood of injury and death) and allocate it towards plane safety (where there is a low likelyhood), probability says that more people overall will be injured and die.

Emotionally, we may not like it, but it is the truth.

Jan. 27 2010 01:53 PM
Phil Henshaw from NY

It's completely false that no one foresaw the extent of the current economic system failure. I can tell you where it's still headed as well has having predicted it 30 years ago. I can see through the group hysterias that are doing it, because I'm using a competent physics of open systems.

There was a point of diminishing physical returns on investment 40 years ago... and we have a financial system that can only remain stable if it has multiplying returns. QED

http://synapse9.com/issues/DJ_Energy+GDP.jpg
http://synapse9.com/phpub.htm

Jan. 27 2010 01:46 PM

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