The new Quinnipiac University poll has Public Advocate Bill de Blasio leading the pack with support from 43 percent of likely voters. If that number holds -- and it's just inside the poll's margin of error - de Blasio would avoid a runoff.
The poll also has him lapping former comptroller Bill Thompson, who's coming in second with 20 percent of votes. Council speaker Christine Quinn has 18 percent.
The poll's margin of error is 3.6 percentage points.
De Blasio has twice as much support among women as Quinn, and almost twice as much support among African Americans as Thompson.
Former Congressman Anthony Weiner, Comptroller John Liu and former councilmember Sal Albanese all trail with numbers in the single digits. Nearly a quarter of likely voters said they could change their minds within the week, but that number is down significantly from a week ago, when 31 percent of likely voters said they were likely to switch their votes.
On the Republican side, former MTA chairman Joe Lhota is way ahead with 48 percent of the vote. Businessman John Catsimatidis has 24 percent and Doe Fund founder George McDonald has 10.
The poll surveyed 750 likely Democratic primary voters and 101 likely Republican voters with a 9.8 percentage point margin of error. for Republicans.