Streams

Political Wrap-Up

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Politico staff writer Jonathan Martin and WNYC political director Andrea Bernstein weigh in on last night's primaries in Oregon and Kentucky.

Guests:

Andrea Bernstein and Jonathan Martin
News, weather, Radiolab, Brian Lehrer and more.
Get the best of WNYC in your inbox, every morning.

Comments [102]

hjs from 11211

so u think the SD should act mindlessly. just keeping their fingers crossed. i think he can, i think he can....

May. 21 2008 05:40 PM
seth from Long Island

Obama leads Hillary in every metric. When Hillary says she has more popular votes, you have to be a 1st class contortionist to accept her phony math. If SDs give this nomination to Hillary it will be a Grand Theft. Hillary won't get away with mugging Obama. Enjoy your evening and have a pleasant tomorrow

May. 21 2008 05:36 PM
hjs from 11211

SETH
is peter king ur rep?
what are u doing about that?

May. 21 2008 05:33 PM
hjs from 11211

by steal i guess u mean when the super delegates vote they have to vote as u wish they would?

May. 21 2008 05:29 PM
seth from Long Island

hjs,

I meant closing of Hillaryland if her prez bid fails. Unfortuantely, Hillary would still be a NY senator to the everlasting shame of this great state. If Hillary steals the nomination from Obama, I'd never vote for war monger John "bomb bomb bomb Iran" McCain, I'd vote for Ralph Nader or Cynthia McKinney.

May. 21 2008 05:22 PM
hjs from 11211

seth
she will still be a powerful NY senator, so she's not going anywhere. i assume you're talking about 49% of democratic voters. tell us the truth are u going to vote for mccain?

May. 21 2008 05:07 PM
seth from Long Island

hjs,

Enjoy your stay in Hillaryland until it gets shut down later this summer. Only gold medal lying politicians earn my hate or disgust. I don't respect Dem voters who allow themselves to be used as doormats by corrupt, egotisical politicians who don't care about their well-being.

May. 21 2008 05:03 PM
hjs from 11211

seth
i've read the salon piece. they get him to 255 with that he loses, u blame the clintons. the courts move further to right. i leave the country. USA becomes a 3rd world nation. oh well.
i didn't know david! was talking about u, sorry. i stand by ur right to spew hate (as long as we have any rights.)
i'm glad obama has more respect for democratic voters than BL board posters.

May. 21 2008 04:49 PM
seth from Long Island

hjs
See post #86 for Obama's 270 strategy
I assumed the line "don't blame BO for his childish supporters" was aimed in my direction. My disgust with Clinton mendacity leads me to use harsh language regarding them. Just because you don't like attacks on Hill, doesn't make her attackers childish. I find the Clintons and Bush/Cheney to be equally corrupt & repulsive.I make no apologies for exercising my 1st amendment rt to passionately express my belief about these politicians.

May. 21 2008 04:34 PM
hjs from 11211

seth
when was the "ad hominem personal insult."
i asked u how he gets to 270, u had no answer. have u thought that far ahead?
denial is thinking this racist country will elect a black man to be president in the year 2008.
but when that happens u'll blame 'the clintons' boggieman. who's now that's sounds like 'Repub tactics.' don't get to depressed after the fall.

May. 21 2008 04:15 PM
mc from Brooklyn

Pat and David!
I understand the feeling but you need to think about what is really good for you and the country. I know that it is hard when you hear the nastiness to feel that these forces have your interests at heart, but if nothing else consider the alternative.

Last post. Gotta go. I'll work on a Kucinich meta/mega-narrative for next time.

May. 21 2008 04:09 PM
hjs from 11211

david!
guilt by association is a GOP concept

May. 21 2008 04:06 PM
seth from Long Island

David, hjs,
Persoanlly, I preferred Biden, Dodd, and Richardson over Obama because I think qualifications/experience matter. Counting Illinois state legislature, Obama is better qualified than Hillary. Hillary's only advantage over Obama is that she is a more experienced liar
hjs - thx for your ad hominem personal insult. Clinton brand is as defective as the Bush/Cheney brand. You're living in denial for failing to see Hill's Repub tactics. Hillary has become the rt wing conspiracy she decried.

May. 21 2008 04:03 PM
David! from NYC

86--Pat, "I feel your pain." Now, if I could only succeed in not stopping "thinking about tomorrow."

May. 21 2008 03:55 PM
David! from NYC

hjs,

i know you're right, and i'll likely come around, but today, i'm weary. and frankly, i'm sick and tired of the months of HRC bashing i've read on these boards by people who make that claim that BO is the "principled" candidate.

shouldn't a candidates supporters overall be a reflection of him/her?

May. 21 2008 03:53 PM
Pat Burns from New York

The fact is, there has been horrifying treatment of Hillary by the press and it is too bad the misogyny that has characterized the press's role in this campaign wasn't brought out earlier. I couldn't belieive my ears last night when David Gergen suggested that Hillary tell the racists she didn't want their votes after all the sexist comments that have been made by voters on the trail and in polls of voters.

The press has essentially pushed Obama and either ignored Hillary's successes or bashed her for whatever reasons they could think of that would make Obama look better. geraldine ferraro is not the only one who is considering voting for McCain. One hates to throw the baby out with the bathwater, but it is SO IRRITATING, it is hard to know what else to do with the anger.

pat

May. 21 2008 03:49 PM
seth from Long Island

hjs,
Try these for starters
How will Barack Obama get to 270?
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/print.html
Two Different Paths to 270 Electoral Votes
http://www.thesensiblecenter.com/?p=438
How Obama Gets to 270 Electoral Votes
http://commoniowan.blogspot.com/2008/03/how-obama-gets-to-270-electoral-votes.html

May. 21 2008 03:46 PM
mc from Brooklyn

seth,
I agree that Biden, Richardson and Dodd were more experienced and qualified. I actually preferred Kucinich but his mega-narrative got in the way. I respect your strong feelings but I cannot put the Clintons in the same catagory with Cheney and Bush. I was unenthusiastic about her run for Senate but feel she did well once she got there. As for iconic status, this is a problem for both of them. He is a regular politician, not that different from the rest, he has just been able to hide it better. Give it time.

May. 21 2008 03:46 PM
hjs from 11211

david!
don't blame BO for his childish supporters and don't stay home.

May. 21 2008 03:41 PM
David! from NYC

from post 81: "...despite fact that Biden, Dodd, Richardson have resumes head & shoulders above her." Change that pronoun to "him" and couldn't the same thing be said about Sen. Obama's resume compared to those of Biden, Dodd and Richardson?

May. 21 2008 03:37 PM
mc from Brooklyn

Maybe we can try less bashing and try to think of how we bring the 23% (see my post #71 32% should have read 23%) of HRC supporters who say they will stay home in Nov. on board. If too many Deomcratic primary voters stay home it will swing to McCain. How do we bring them in?

May. 21 2008 03:32 PM
seth from Long Island

mc,

It's possible to be an Obama supporter w/o being a Hill detractor. To me, Bill and Hillary are merely the flip side of Bush and Cheney.I resent Hillary for her insane sense of entitlement. She lives in NY for 5 min and becomes Dem nominee for Senate even though there were scores of better qualified nominees.If Obama hadn't run, Hillary would be Dem nominee despite fact that Biden, Dodd, Richardson have resumes head & shoulders above her. Her iconic status trumps actual qualifications. This is a shameful state of affairs.

May. 21 2008 03:28 PM
David! from NYC

re: my comment 79

grammatical correction: should read "whose" instead of "who's"

my apologies

May. 21 2008 03:23 PM
David! from NYC

Seth, you can bash away all you want at Senator Clinton. Maybe it makes you feel better. Maybe you think that people like me are "blindly loyal."

If you've read enough of my comments, you'll know that I've seen Sen. Clinton's flaws, and that I still think she's a far superior candidate for the presidency than either McCain or Obama.

Sen. Clinton never ran a campaign on being a unifier. That's been Sen. Obama's claim. Yes, the same Sen. Obama who's calls for unity and change referred to Sen. Clinton as the "senator from Punjab." That's just one of many things I could list, but I don't think my listing more things is going to help you lose your hatred of all things Clinton or your adoration of Obama.

All the best...

May. 21 2008 03:22 PM
mc from Brooklyn

seth,
Do you really think the media is in love with HRC? I'm not seeing it. Guess it's all about perception, no way to reconcile that. I think the media is more likely if he loses in Nov. to make it out to be all about race, or maybe his lack of experience. That is rapidly becoming their mega-narrative.

I have certainly seen very negative comments about BHO posted here but I have seen far more about HRC. His supporters will argue that she deserves this treatment of course. Is it possible to be an Obama supporter without being a Hillary detractor?

May. 21 2008 03:15 PM
seth from Long Island

The shame and disgrace of the Dem party is the blind loyalty, adulation, and infatuation so many Dem voters feel for the Clintons despite the fact they flagrantly and consistently violated the public trust when Bill Clinton was President. Only Hillary could play the race card and the fear card like a Republican and get away with it because she's coated in some magic fairy dust that dulls the mental faculties of Dem primary voters. Hillary is Dick Cheney in a pants suit.

May. 21 2008 03:14 PM
David! from NYC

If the comments of the Obama supporters in this forum are reflective of what his campaign is really about, I'm all the more proud to have stood as a Hillary Clinton support, contributor, and voter; and my resolve is strengthening to simply stay home in November.

May. 21 2008 03:07 PM
hjs from 11211

seth
so details, how does obama get to 270?

May. 21 2008 03:07 PM
seth from Long Island

hjs,

If Obama loses in Nov, I don't think he runs in 2012. If McCain wins, the media will buy Hillary's narrative hook, line, and sinker. They will trash and totally discredit Obama and turn the public against him and destroy his base of support. The media is infatuated with Hillary and will go in overdrive saying that McCain's win validated her statements and strategy. They'll actively encourage her to run in 2012.

May. 21 2008 03:04 PM
mc from Brooklyn

seth,
"kakistocracy" love it. Very crunchy. I question conflating the Clintons with the Bushes but everyone is entitled to his/her opinion.

I don't think you need to worry about HRC wounding BHO. He seems more than able to take care of himself. He may wound himself if he doesn't do more thorough homework vis-a-vis the economy and health care. Then again, McCain is very weak in that area, so it may be a wash.

I think that HRC sought support where ever she could find it. I don't like some of what I have heard coming from her campaign, but I also think a lot of it has been exaggerated. I'm sure you'll think I'm crazy for sying that. This race has exposed fault lines in the Dem. party that I think go back to LBJ. Much of the time since they have either been out of power in the White House or Congress so it wasn't as obvious, but I don't think it ever went away. We have to deal with it. I am not sure how.

May. 21 2008 03:00 PM
seth from Long Island

mc,

Thx for the compliment. My greatest fear remains that Hillary will only withdraw once she's convinced that her campaign has mortally wounded Obama for Nov. She'll give an Oscar performance pretending to support Obama but inside she'll be doing cartwheels believing that Obama will lose and she can start her 2012 run. Are you or anyone else here concerned that Hillary exploited white voters' fear of a black man to win in WV and KY?

May. 21 2008 02:48 PM
mc from Brooklyn

More exit polls in KY:
If Obama wins nomination:
42% vote McCain
33% vote Obama
32% stay home - these are the ones we need to bring around.

Some of these numbers may be skewed. The Obama voters probably don't think they will have to make the choice to vote for HRC in Nov., thus it looks like more of them would support her in the parallel exit polls (77% I think).

May. 21 2008 02:44 PM
hjs from 11211

nice spin seth. with ur crystal ball will BO & HRC both run again in 2012?

May. 21 2008 02:42 PM
seth from Long Island

The strangle hold of the Bush Clinton kakistocracy must be broken now. The White House isn't a Bush Clinton time share. It's time to end the cycle of switching the presidency back and forth between 2 families of corrupt, arrogant politicians. Undeclared SDs must endorse Obama now and Hillary must end her fool's errand. Hillary is playing bait and switch - 1 day nice, 1 day using new math to claim popular vote. She must be stopped before she destroys the Dem party.

May. 21 2008 02:36 PM
mc from Brooklyn

seth,
Fabulous mega-narrative. Very colorful language.

May. 21 2008 02:29 PM
seth from Long Island

Hillary is on a kamikaze mission to destroy the Dem party so that Obama loses in Nov, she gets to say I told you so, and begins her 2012 campaign. William Safire put it best when he wrote that Hillary is a "Congenital Liar". Truer words have never been written about Hillary. Her ego is the size of the Milky Way galaxy and she's a 24 carat gold huckster. She's drunk with delusions of grandeur and wants to go out in a blaze of glory like James Cagney in White Heat.

May. 21 2008 02:24 PM
seth from Long Island

Of the 21% of Kentucky voters who said that race was a factor in their decision, about 90% chose Hillary Clinton. In other words, more than 50,000 Kentucky Democrats are willing to admit that the pigment of Obama's skin was a reason they decided not to vote for him.

(Source: Marc Ambinder, Atlantic Monthly)

These voters are a disgrace to the Dem party and to the country

May. 21 2008 02:18 PM
mc from Brooklyn

Why thank you Tony. Don't worry, I do not vote against my interests. I am worried that people might stay home in Nov. rather than vote for either one.

Sorry I couldn't get you those DeWine pix.

May. 21 2008 01:38 PM
mc from Brooklyn

OK, fair enough. It looked sarcastic in context. Glad it wasn't.

I am not a member of the Clinton campaign. Please do not conflate me with that.

May. 21 2008 01:36 PM
hjs from 11211

eva
"get the meta/mega difference, so no need to explain that." was the nasty part. i have a dictionary so anyone can know the difference, it's implied.
one can explain anything who knows who's reading maybe tom in texas doesn't know the difference or have a dictionary to brush up on ancient languages

May. 21 2008 01:34 PM
Tony from Brooklyn

mc/eva You're both pretty. You can stop now.

David(32): Come down out of your duck blind and give me a hug. No need to get your sarong in a bunch.
I don't want to make you vote against your self interests by not playing to your insecurities. This is too important for that.

May. 21 2008 01:26 PM
eva

mc,
how could you take someone saying they studied Greek as sarcastic? This is really the dynamic of the Clinton campaign. ANY comment can be taken as offense. It's exhausting. And it's fruitless.

May. 21 2008 01:24 PM
mc from Brooklyn

OK hjs,
GOP voters: meta-narrative: Originally a party of "bootstrappers" built on making one's way in a new country. Considered a party of federalism, a small central government that was largely in charge of national defense and not much else while states made laws that governed everyday life.

mega-narrative: Old southerners who are still upset about civil rights legislation, anti-tax zealots who want to shrink the federal government and then drown it in the bathtub. Xenophobic anti-immigration and aggresive foreign policy hawks.

May. 21 2008 01:22 PM
mc from Brooklyn

Sorry if "koolaid" offended anyone. I was struck by Joe Andrew's use of the Obama campaign talking points, without coming up with anything original.

If distasteful offends anyone I'm sorry. I am just pointing out that a number of people take offense when either of these candidates is insulted because there is a high level of identification with them both. Since one side is clearly losing, we need to find a way to bring them on board and I'm not sure "step aside" is going to do it.

Might be another mistake on my part. Wouldn't be the first time - won't be the last.

May. 21 2008 01:13 PM
hjs from 11211

mc
do a meta/Mega-narrative for GOP voters

May. 21 2008 01:10 PM
mc from Brooklyn

hjs,
That is why I did it. I could not find a term that described what I was experiencing, so I made one up.

Ralph Nader: meta-narrative: Consumer advocate for years, some credit him to a large extent for the fact that we have an OSHA.

Mega-narrative: Perennial independent presidential candidate, many feel that he threw the 2000 election into the Bush column.

I'm having fun, anyone else?

May. 21 2008 01:07 PM
mc from Brooklyn

I also accepted the correction of the meaning of sarong (seeing a picture helped). How do you correct someone's meaning for a word that he/she claims to have made up?

May. 21 2008 01:02 PM
mc from Brooklyn

eva,
So the Greek comment was not sarcastic?

May. 21 2008 01:01 PM
hjs from 11211

mc eva
stop fighting this is way off topic. language changes all the time. anyone can coin a new phrase, i've heard word maven Patricia T. O'Conner say as much.

May. 21 2008 01:00 PM
eva

mc,
I generally enjoy our exchanges, but come on, if someone corrects you on meaning or definition, you can't accuse them of being "sarcastic" or playing "language cop". Not everything is personal. And it's kind of silly to say that someone saying "get out of the way" is distasteful when your remark about Joe Andrew's switch was "Joe Andrew is drinking the 'inspiration' kool-aid."
It's a fair point to make that you can't have it both ways....

May. 21 2008 12:59 PM
mc from Brooklyn

eva,
Re: distasteful, again, this is about perception. There are a number of women who identify with HRC and when they hear "sit down and shut up" they feel it is directed at them. I did not put myself in this catagory. I just worry about losing them as voters if they stay home in Nov.

I also think that you are misinterpreting what I say sometimes when you think I am having an "emotional reaction" to something. Advocacy in writing is something I do, it does not mean I am losing sleep over it.

What generation do you think I am?

May. 21 2008 12:57 PM
mc from Brooklyn

OK, eva, let's back up a minute. I am willing to consider that I may have made another mistake (are you?)
"mc studied the Greek and thus got the meta/mega difference, so no need to explain that." sounded sarcastic to me.

..."but like the sarong/thong thing, be careful when you create new meanings..." misrepresents what happened. I made a mistake about the meaning of "sarong" I did not try to make up a meaning. I admitted the mistake and yet you come back at me with it.

I think that we both like to use language in an imaginitive way and that is one of things I have enjoyed about our exchanges. Let's not start playing language cop with each other. If you feel I have done the same thing to you I will offer a standing appology now and hope that we can put it aside.

May. 21 2008 12:54 PM
eva

#48, hjs, point fairly made, even if I'd love it if HRC would concede now. But let's be honest, her passionate run at this point may have more to do with paying off campaign debt (or, rather, getting other Americans to do it for her) than anything else. CNN was reporting she raised 22 mil with her latest theatrics, which involved affecting a southern accent with a speech-hoarsened voice. It was touching, I'll admit, but it didn't convince me that I should support her, and it apparently didn't convince a good many other people.

May. 21 2008 12:52 PM
hjs from 11211

HRC shouldn't 'get out of the way' until the superdelegates vote. BO did not cross the finish line yet.

May. 21 2008 12:45 PM
eva

mc,
Tony's "get out of the way" is distasteful?
Come on... So "as far as I know" in regard to Obama's faith is tasteful? Lying about sniper fire is tasteful? The Clintons and their sleazy political directors are "tasteful"?
HRC was in the lead, and there's a reason people have been running for the exits and toward Obama. I worry that you, like many women in your generation, have such a super-strong affiliation with Hillary based on gender that it blinds you to her weaknesses.
In the interest of moving forward, I'd be most happy if Hillary would step aside (is that tasteful enough?) and I suspect she's already making plans to do so, now that she's raised some money to pay off her campaign debt. That's as powerful a motivator for her at this point as her former desire to win at all costs.

May. 21 2008 12:37 PM
Mary Ryan from Brooklyn, NY

Posted by MR:
As a woman who supported Hillary for the Senate, I regret that I now avoid the sight and sound of her.
Bottom line, her campaign reveals her as deeply inauthentic. For example: Debating before the New Hamp. primary, John Edwards spoke about his campaign issues being personal. It was his best moment. The next morning, Hillary made the same claim (almost a direct quote of Edwards), adding teary quavering. Sadly, the weepy woman, anti-Feminist tactic worked.
And then there's her/Bill's courting of the "white blue-collar" vote that so clearly = the racist demographic. Surely Kentucky and Arkansas are voting less for a woman than against a black man. Meanwhile her surrogates (G. Ferraro) hedge bets by backing McCain, so H can run again in 2012.
I'm left recoiling from her public persona and lost re who she really might be. At best she's an unknown quantity. What might she do with presidential power? No clue; much concern.

May. 21 2008 12:32 PM
hjs from 11211

tony
if your nader comment was referring to my comment 35, to be clear i was not talking about voting for someone like nader in 2008. I was talking about a long term building of a multi party system for this nation (mostly for members of congress.) i will be voting for the dem nominee this year, because i have gop fear. i have no problem with obama.

May. 21 2008 12:31 PM
eva

mc,
You may disagree, but no one is "needling" you, I think you're too quick to take offense. The act of taking personally any criticism of a statement you or your candidate made (while feeling free to describe Joe Andrew's switch to Obama from Clinton as "drinking the koolaid") is as counterproductive as getting emotionally upset about a comment that a comedian made about Hillary wearing a sarong because you mistakenly think sarong means "thong".

May. 21 2008 12:30 PM
mc from Brooklyn

I meant to say a rather large voting bloc that Obama needs.

May. 21 2008 12:29 PM
mc from Brooklyn

"get out of the way." Hmm. I'm sure I have a different world view from many here, but that kind of language is distasteful. It negates a rather large voting block for Obama.

Re: leadership, I'm just not on the bandwagon. He looks like a normal politician to me, which is of course how you win. But it takes away the "new politics" argument. If he wins the White House I will be worried about a rather amorphous message on the economy being translated into actual policy.

hjs,
Re; your frustration with leadership in Congress, I agree. It is very hard to do anything anymore without 60 votes in the Senate, so if McCain wins the best we can hope for is gridlock, which was a good thing when it happened during the Bush Administration.

May. 21 2008 12:28 PM
eva

worth reading, from Dan Schnur, former com. dir. in McCain's 2000 campaign, in today's NYTimes:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/the-politics-of-hunger/
"The most ominous warning for what the fall might be like for the G.O.P. was the throng of 75,000 people that Barack Obama turned out for a rally in Portland over the weekend. The crowd would have almost filled Wrigley Field to capacity twice over and would have been either the fifth or sixth biggest city in Oregon. Or to look at it another way, it was roughly two-thirds the number of Republicans who participated in the Iowa caucuses this year....
"That’s no guarantee of an Obama win in November, but it’s a potentially bigger challenge for John McCain than age, war and recession combined. The excitement among Democratic primary voters, while not unprecedented, may represent the greatest level of political passion since the Republicans eight years ago...

May. 21 2008 12:15 PM
Tony from Brooklyn

hjs,
You may be hearing "HRC's fault," but you're not hearing it from me. People get the politicians they deserve. There's no recent historical precedent to suggest people who are most dependent upon government are capable of electing a gov't. that is in their best interests. So what these people need is to have leadership they can depend on to push them in the right direction. Complex issues are above their head, so they grasp at visceral issues like gender, race, religion, and lapel ornamentation.
Voting for a candidate who you know isn't going to win the way people have in recent elections is just plain stupid. Remember a guy named Nader who ran for president in 2000? That turned out well, didn't it? Between the two of them Alito and Roberts probably have another 75 years on the Supreme Court. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and maimed. And not only are we less safe, but so are the people of Iraq, Israel and Afghanistan. You have to expect "voting irregularities" in the general election. Every vote counts and the way to maximize democratic prospects is for Hillary to get out of the way and campaign for Obama.

May. 21 2008 12:11 PM
mc from Brooklyn

David!
We need to start with shared prosperity. That will build us a tent big enough for Travis Childers and Nancy Pelosi. The reason I had problems with Obama is that his economic policies seem very fuzzy to me, particularly in the area of health care access. A running mate needs to counteract that, and I think he needs to do more homework. It's looking sloppy right now.

May. 21 2008 11:58 AM
mc from Brooklyn

BTW, the pick-up, confederate flag white male vote (how's that for a cultural stereotype) will probably go to McCain no matter what. So that leaves Obama with women and old people to add to the rather McGovern-like coalition he has now.

May. 21 2008 11:53 AM
mc from Brooklyn

Tony,
Your point is certainly well taken about the interests of poor people of any color or age, but in your discussion of the pick-up truck and viagra crowd you are forgetting a very important demographic. I am not advocating a VP slot for HRC but something needs to happen to counteract the impression that a great many of her supporters had that when she was told by Dem. party leaders for three months to drop out that they were being told the same thing. This election has been very much about voters indentifying with their candidate, much more so than with Kerry so care and attention need to be given to that. I don't know what the solution is, but telling her to take a hike ain't it whether you like it or not.

May. 21 2008 11:51 AM
hjs from 11211

meant to write:
again i hear if obama loses it's HRC fault.

May. 21 2008 11:45 AM
hjs from 11211

Tony
again i hear is obama loses if HRC fault. get a grip!

May. 21 2008 11:39 AM
hjs from 11211

david!
can we say 3rd party?

listen, i agree to a point. i have nothing against obama, except he's too young, america is not ready for him, and he has no track record and he can't win in November but I would feel less welcome in that hate filled hypocritical party of calvin. so it's just keep your fingers crossed time. also work for democratic congress (hopefully they will do their job and go on the offensive against an administration with the same GOP faces.

May. 21 2008 11:36 AM
Robbie from New York

The level of interest and discussion among many Americans in national politics is hot and heavy right now, but I predict five minutes after Election Day most Americans will go back to sleep, the electricity will have all but died. There's no denying this moment is extremely important and terribly exciting but not to last. Not to last.

May. 21 2008 11:35 AM
Tony from Brooklyn

hjs,
A general election is a different ballgame. Assuming Hillary doesn't sabotage Obama(and that's a big if), his chances are slightly better than 50/50. Those chances improve significantly if you get that strong chinned, HS QB/war hero type from central casting to run with him. GOP voters couldn't vote in the democratic race in many states. Obama has a fair chance at the literate, passport carrying segment of the GOP. He's going to eat McCain's lunch in debates. He's a foot taller, attractive, and looks a little less like he's knocking on death's door. If Hillary gets out of the way, Obama can reclaim all the Edith Bunkers who view HRC as their proxy after a life of being oppressed by men(think Archie was a dem?) Let's face it, as a practical matter what poor uneducated woman would benefit from the election of a Republican? They aren't exactly living off of dividend income. The big difference is you forfeit uneducated white men with Hillary on the ticket for many of the reasons Obama articulated in his "bitter" comments. Hillary can be a grown up and campaign for Obama, or she can sit in the corner and pout to try to prove her "he can't win" comments prophetic. But being on the ticket is not the answer.

May. 21 2008 11:24 AM
David! from NYC

30--Tony

Those "VFW and pick-up truck crowd" were the base of the Democratic party for the early 1930's until Reagan convinced them they were really Republicans.

Mark Warner, former governor of VA and Heath Shuler, current rep of NC's ? district, are Dems who went back to a core message and won.

Maybe the Dem umbrella really doesn't have room for all. I've been loyal to this party all my voting life, but today, I don't feel very welcome here.

May. 21 2008 11:09 AM
hjs from 11211

tony
"Hillary's high negatives" among right wing loons aside she's won about 49% of dem primary voters, some of whom haven't be taken by BO. feel free to bury your head in the sand if u wish, but an Obama victory is a long shot at best.
mccain will get the an old white viagra guy vote whom ever is the Dem VP. it's about healing and getting the base out at this point.

May. 21 2008 11:01 AM
Tony from Brooklyn

If Hillary holds the uneducated, xenophobic, flag pin fetishizing, demographic hostage in exchange for a VP slot, I'll start taking Canadian classes at Berlitz...eh? Do the math. Hillary's high negatives(which she's earned of late) + people who won't vote for Obama because he's a muslim secret agent/lousy bowler/black man/etc. = certain defeat. Obama needs a white male, a little grey at the temples, with a flag pin and a wife who makes cupcakes with icing smiley faces. Congress and Viagra ads are full of those guys. Just pick one at random. Bonus points for military credentials and/or a southern accent.
The democrats give the VFW and pick up truck crowd more credit than they deserve. I'm not saying these people don't deserve help. They're Americans and the American government should help them. But it's a lot like trying to rescue a drowning man having a seizure. They're not helping much. So give them the imagery that comforts them, and let's save this country from Bush and his ilk.

May. 21 2008 10:46 AM
hjs from 11211

mc, 5
i've accepted he's to be dem nominee. i just don't see him winning, but i'm hoping he will. but i still don't see him winning unless HRC is VP and can bring in some moderators

May. 21 2008 10:41 AM
mc from Brooklyn

Tony,
I absolutely agree with your point about the Supreme Court which is why I'm so incredulous about Ferraro. That said, I think that we cannot ignore the fact that both Obama and Clinton are very symbolic to many people and when they are insulted the people who support them feel insulted. I don't think people identified with Kerry the same way. So the danger is in the perception of her being told to drop out by leaders of her own party for three months now. It's hard to sell the idea that the party has her supporters' best interests at heart when they keep hearing that message over and over.

May. 21 2008 10:40 AM
mc from Brooklyn

Tony,
Sorry can't do that. He was quite a few years ahead of me. I don't know him; my parents do. His party affiliation is surprising given the fact that he went to school in just about the bluest town there is in the US, and the home of Coretta Scott King's alma mater.

May. 21 2008 10:37 AM
echo from NYC

I made my point.

May. 21 2008 10:35 AM
T from turtle bay

The Obama/Clinton ticket is such a bad idea. I know some people think that they may compliment each other. I expect instead, each would lose their core voters. I think the joint ticket would disenchant their supporters by bringing on the other one. Especially Hillary's supporters.

May. 21 2008 10:29 AM
Tony from Brooklyn

Wow, same high school as Mike DeWine. That's so cool! Please post a link to pictures!!!

May. 21 2008 10:29 AM
mc from Brooklyn

ms,
I saw the same thing in the NY Times day before yesterday. It's hard to believe.

Alex,
I think you are right. Numbers and statistics are constantly manipulated to make a point.

Interesting point about using the media as a punching bag. They can't punch back but they sure can influence people's thinking with their narratives. I imagine that if the primaries had swung the other way we would be hearing the same complaints from the Obama forces.

May. 21 2008 10:25 AM
Robbie from New York

Let's not get it twisted. Hillary's big wins in KY and WV are noteworthy but largely symbolic. People are (still)voting for Hillary even though they know full well she's not going to win the nomination at this point in the same way in the 80s African Americans and others voted for Jesse Jackson knowing they'd eventually cast their ballots for someone else. Why not? It's an historic chance to vote for the first woman in a serious bid for the White House. The exit polls in KY and WV reveal Hillary voters who'd swear they won't pull a lever for Obama nevertheless largely view Obama as the person who will be the nominee.
So much right now is passion and symbol at this stage of the campaign. By Labor Day so much of this intercene friction will have dissipated.

May. 21 2008 10:24 AM
Tony from Brooklyn

This demographic divide in this race isn't black or white or rich or poor. This race as the general election will be is a question of modernity. When Echo(11) complains of "men talking down to women," it sounds like Lucy complaining to Ethel about Ricky. Apparently Echo is more offended by being talked down to than with a Supreme Court that will have 3 potential openings in the next 4 or 8 years. A SC that has limited the control women have over their bodies. A SC that has limited women's right to seek compensation for discrimination. A SC that will not become more modern if Hillary Clinton's petulant narcissistic fit costs not Obama the election...but the democrats the election. Think BIG PICTURE.

May. 21 2008 10:23 AM
hjs from 11211

david
reminds me of the first time kennedy divided the party in 1980 and gave us 12 years of reagan-bush.

mc, i'm always thinking about congress, that's where real power should be anyway, but where is the leadership there.

May. 21 2008 10:23 AM
michael winslow from INWOOD

I guess it's ok for Ted Kennedy to get drunk and kill a woman.

Amazing no one seems to care about the woman he killed.

May. 21 2008 10:22 AM
Liz from brooklyn

In your analysis you say that the media is an easy punching bag but you ignore the fact that they do a terrible job of presenting issues and deserve everything they get.

May. 21 2008 10:22 AM
ms from greenpoint

did i just hear right? that geraldine ferraro said she would vote for mccain? a quick google tells me that she might not back obama, but that of course doesnt mean she would necessarily vote for anti-abortion (and anti-everything else) mccain! clarification please!

May. 21 2008 10:21 AM
erick from Rochester, NY

Is this a the beginning of the Obama/Clinton (as vice) ticket?

May. 21 2008 10:18 AM
mc from Brooklyn

HarledmHobbit:
If you listened to Brian carefully, he did say "depending on how you count."

May. 21 2008 10:17 AM
Alex from Brooklyn

Brian,

you can't make the comparison you cited.

While it is no doubt true that different regions respond differently, that doesn't mean that you've got the data to prove it. You can get white/spreads. You can get income spreads. You can get education spreads. But they don't publish race x income x education spreads. KY is lower education and lower income than OR. What is the cumulative effect of all three of these demographic factors?

And then, you've got the difference in voting systems between KY and OR that might explain some of these results. Or the difference between the polling in KY (exit) and OR (phone).

Last, region is a demographic.

May. 21 2008 10:15 AM
BORED

Hey David does it feel like a black cloud has come over the democratic party.

May. 21 2008 10:13 AM
mc from Brooklyn

I hear you David! It just proved that the Supreme Court is as partisan as it gets and every time I hear O'Conner's buyer's remorse I want to puke.

May. 21 2008 10:12 AM
echo from NYC

I do not have the tolerance for Obama's condescending tone when he talks about Hillary - how she crossed barriers or whatever - eech! Men talking down to women again.

May. 21 2008 10:11 AM
HarledmHobbit from East Harlem

Brian, please, stop repeating Clinton lies! Hillary is ahead in the popular vote ONLY if you use her demented, whole-states-don't-count mathmatics. Stop repeating her lies! Report the facts, man, report the FACTS.

May. 21 2008 10:11 AM
mc from Brooklyn

eva,
Obama's "white working class problem" is a good example of a mega-narrative. A grain of truth, far simpler than the actual reality, and repeated so many times and so loudly that it is accepted as truth by many.

May. 21 2008 09:51 AM
David! from NYC

Thanks, mc, I needed that. I'm really not exaggerating about feeling numb. I feel like I did back in December 2000, when the court stole the election from the people and gave it to shrub.

May. 21 2008 09:50 AM
mc from Brooklyn

hjs and David!,
Let's try to think about the congressional races as well as the presidential race. The Democrats seem to be in a really strong position to increase their majority in both houses. McCain and Obama have similar profiles in a very superficial sense in that the media seem to be in love with both of them, so the playing field may be more equal there than it looks now. Figure that even if McCain wins he will be hamstrung by a more Democratic Congress, something that we did not have for 5 out of the last 7 years.

May. 21 2008 09:01 AM
David! from NYC

I feel absolutely numb, bereft of hope for this country. This is a sad day.

May. 21 2008 08:49 AM
mc from Brooklyn

I hear you hjs, but honestly I think that the absolutely worst thing that could happen for the Democrats now is for him to lose the nomination. I mean, imagine it. He has it in hand and then it's snatched away. What kind of a message would that send? Especially with the symbolism of him and the fact that a huge number of people feel empowered by his candidacy.

May. 21 2008 08:41 AM
hjs from 11211

sorry to beat a dead horse but obama's problem is he doesn't win in swing states. Oregon is ultra liberal.
also he won liberal vote in many red state primaries. doesn't mean he can win the general.
it's going to be an uphill battle for the dems in nov.

May. 21 2008 08:36 AM
mc from Brooklyn

BTW, I think that your continuing to needle me about sarong/thong is unfair. I admitted that I made a mistake, said it was "my bad." I think you could let that go rather than continuing to rub my nose in it.

May. 21 2008 08:36 AM
mc from Brooklyn

eva,
I think that it is fair to say that certain Appalachian regions will not go for any Democrat, and that WV is small enough that it didn't really swing it for Bill Clinton.

I'm worried about Ohio, my home state which has broken my heart a number of times. They did great in '06, I was really worried that they were going to elect that sleazeball Blackwell as governor and instead Strickland won in a landslide. Sherrod Brown is also a great addition to the Senate, although Mike DeWine who went to my high school was not as bad as many of the other Repubs. That said, Strickland is a far different kind of Democrat from either HRC or BHO. I think he will work hard to swing the state for BHO but I don't know if people will buy it. I'm also worried about Florida, whose demographic is older than most states, and thus may vote identity politics (read John McCain).

May. 21 2008 08:34 AM
eva

Worth considering: In today's NYTimes website, Tim Egan writes that HRC's Appalachia is not a "Democratic landscape", anyway. Meanwhile, Chai-sipping (read: elitist) Oregon, he points out, may be hip, but it's not only "one of the nation’s whitest states – just under 2 percent of residents are black", but it's "below the national average in both per capita income and median household income." So, it's not very elite after all (although they like their road bikes and their cross-country running.)
"This suggests that Obama doesn’t have a white working class problem so much as a regional problem, in a place where Democrats won’t win anyway."

May. 21 2008 02:00 AM

Leave a Comment

Register for your own account so you can vote on comments, save your favorites, and more. Learn more.
Please stay on topic, be civil, and be brief.
Email addresses are never displayed, but they are required to confirm your comments. Names are displayed with all comments. We reserve the right to edit any comments posted on this site. Please read the Comment Guidelines before posting. By leaving a comment, you agree to New York Public Radio's Privacy Policy and Terms Of Use.