Risks in 2013

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

"Emerging Markets", "Russia as a Submerging Market", "China vs. Information", the "Arab Summer" and more. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, discusses his report on global political risks for 2013.


Ian Bremmer

Comments [7]

Martin Chuzzlewit from Manhattan

After the Fall: What Do You Do When You Conclude America is Finished?

The United States has taken a political turn which at least for the next four years will guarantee that it does not play the role of a great power mindful of and willing to protect its own true interests, supporting its allies, and combating its real foes?
There are certain factors—the Democrats’ radical ideology, a weak economy and growing debt, structural social changes, the weakness and disorganization of the opposition--that may make this situation regarding America's international behavior and policies a long-term irreversible condition.

In other words, we don't know if America is finished as the world's leading power but we do know that it will not take leadership in a good direction for a while … and perhaps will never fully recover.

Barry Rubin
Global Research in International Affairs Center

Jan. 08 2013 11:31 AM
Taher from Croton on Hudson

When people in a country ask for a better life foreign investors say it is populism and bad for investment.
Many South Africans live in poverty that’s OK according to this guest.
Brian can’t you bring better people on your show?

Jan. 08 2013 11:27 AM

When it comes to energy and economic 'recovery', I don't know what planet Mr. Bremmer is studying but it sure doesn't seem to be the planet I'm looking at from day to day. US to become energy exporter, absolutely absurd

Jan. 08 2013 11:23 AM

The big risk in 2013 is over-confidence. Growth expectation of 3% or more are fools gold. Until the baby boomers die out, we'll never have a financial boom. It's nothing but slowdown, or at best slow and steady, for the US economy. As long as more old people are taking from SS, 401Ks and pensions, govt services, etc. than there are young people paying into them, Growth is a word of the past.

Jan. 08 2013 11:20 AM


"how will the coming belgium civil war effect chocolate prices"

The Belgium control of the world wide supply of chocolate is a about as important as its control of the world wide market in waffles.
(Although I'm sure the sheltered elites of West Manhattan's residential neighborhoods (and their aspiring wanna-bees of the outer boroughs) will feel that "humanitarian" intervention is called for to restore their access to "Belgium" branded truffles.

Jan. 08 2013 11:05 AM

how will the coming belgium civil war effect chocolate prices

Jan. 08 2013 10:20 AM

As I understand Mr. Bremmer's current position is that "2013 is the first post financial crisis year". That judgement is delivered with the same confidence that announced the "recovery summer" of two years ago.
My sense of it is that the population as a whole is less patient and will be more brittle in reacting to disappointment and frustrations. A large portion of the electorate will expect that winning two national elections should gain them success in establishing policy and gaining social change. A large portion feels that their values and life styles are threatened by those expectations. Unexpected developments in the economic environment combined with a mistake in public policy could have us revisiting the challenging civil unrest of the 1960s.

Jan. 08 2013 04:02 AM

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