Nate Silver: Forecasts and Odds

Friday, November 02, 2012

Statistician and FiveThirtyEight blogger for The New York Times Nate Silver talks about forecasting elections, and the weather, plus his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't.


Nate Silver

Comments [6]

TARP was implemented badly...but at the time, patching the leaks before we sank was more important than getting every thing right. It worked...more or less...we did not sink but what we were left with is bigger and failier than before. Also, much of the regulations that are being implemented are UNNECESSARY expenses for our smaller banks. But can we reasonably have expected better from an Administration that marched us into Iraq and rather than using 'theater only' scrip to run the Iraqi economy during our occupation, we sent trailer fulls of 100 dollar bills.

Nov. 04 2012 07:55 PM

As a Senator, Barrack Obama joined Paul Ryan in supporting the "TARP" bailouts proposed by the Bush Administration. After he was elected to the Presidency, the Democrat Congress, with Republican support, created and wrote, at the direction of the newly installed Secretary of the Treasury (a former official of the Federal Reserve), legislation that expressly authorized the payment of obscenely large salaries and bonuses to the executives of the failed financial institutions.

Now will someone please tell me how any of that is defined as "change" we can believe in.

Nov. 03 2012 02:25 AM
Joe from nearby

Jack Jackson from Central New Jersey

^ What he said.

Nov. 02 2012 11:06 AM
Jack Jackson from Central New Jersey

@Amy -

I was thinking something similar...The only debate question that came even close to asking about the obstructionism/lack of action from Congress was during the Town Hall. I was not satisfied with the answer from either Barack or Mitt.

My opinion is that the GOP leadership - have purposefully slowed the recovery in order to keep alive their chances for regaining the White House. Look at the unemployment rate in states with GOP governors versus Democratic governors...I can't think of anything more un-American.

However, I do see signs that the voters' patience is at an end. Wall St has recovered, 401K accounts have substantially recovered, corporate profits have recovered...middle class incomes and jobs have NOT recovered. In fact, they are being run purposefully lean, that is job creators are sitting on bags of money rather than hire. [Some of this is doubt over the implementation of ObamaCare; some of it is how will this pile of dough be taxed.]

Our job - as good citizens - is to push our representation and the media into showing the GOP that we are fed up with their antics. The foot-dragging is making the suffering last way longer than it needs to. And we need to demonstrate our resolve that they need to get with the program and move the country forward or WE CAN AND WILL VOTE THEM OUT.

I'm tired of moving sideways...which is all that Obama and the Democrats have been allowed to do since the election.

Nov. 02 2012 11:03 AM
rj from prospect hts

what about bloomberg and florida?

Nov. 02 2012 10:29 AM
Amy from Manhattan

Does Mr. Silver have a prediction about the actual 438, i.e., what the makeup of the Congress will be after the elections? Because my prediction is that if Pres. Obama wins but has another obstruction Congress, the next 4 years *will* be like the last 4.

Nov. 02 2012 10:23 AM

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