Nate Silver on Making Predictions

Monday, October 08, 2012

Nate Silver looks at how predictions are made, and why experts and laypeople both mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. He explains that overconfidence is often the reason for failure, and if our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can too. In The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA.


Nate Silver
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Comments [4]

Leonard please!

Al Gore never claimed to "invent" the internet. He claimed to have sponsored legislation in the senate that made the internet possible. This was a true claim. I'm shocked that you would choose to repeat this myth!

You can see Snopes on this:

Oct. 08 2012 12:41 PM
DK in BK

The Red Sox stopped using the "Money Ball" model years ago with high priced free agent signings (Lackey, Gonzalez, etc.) so Lenny's suggestion that the Money Ball model is working for the A's and not the Sox does not apply.

Oct. 08 2012 12:40 PM
antonio from baySide

So the fact that we are starting with a baseline at 251 for Obama and 181 for Romeny doesn't matter...
That means Obama just needs a few states to get to 271????

Oct. 08 2012 12:34 PM
John A

Does Nate have something to say about the watch it happen / make it happen dichotomy? Watching predictions seems less interesting than working for that better future.

Oct. 08 2012 12:32 PM

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