Show Prep: Jobs Reports Highlights

Friday, July 06, 2012 - 09:59 AM

The first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("the other BLS" as we like to say here at the BrianLehrerShow) releases the monthly jobs report. Here are some quick highlights from the report that we're keeping our eye on as we get ready to discuss it at 10am with Quincy Krosby. Read the full report for yourself here.

+ Topline Number, Weak Report: 80,000 jobs added, unemployment remains at 8.2% Estimates going in expected 150k or more jobs.

+ One important factor to watch are the revisions – the bureau of labor statistics is notorious for significant revisions. This time, revisions were mixed: April revised down by 11k, but May revised up by 8k.

+ Average of 75k jobs a month created over last 3 months. Some estimates are that economy would have to add almost three times that per month in order to complete the recovery over the next five years.

+ From Justin Wolfers: The public sector jobs bleed is petering out. We lost only 4k this month, after -28k last month.

+ Unemployment rates: adult men 7.8%; adult women 7.4%; teenagers 23.7%; whites 7.4% (unchanged from last month); blacks 14.4% (up almost 1% from last month) ; Hispanics 11.0%. Asians 6.3%.

+ From report: Among the marginally attached, there were 821,000 discouraged workers in June, a decline of 161,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

+ Via Nate Silver: The household survey shows +127K jobs per month in Q2, slightly better than +75K in the establishment survey. Why the discrepancy?

+ Tweet from Dan Gross: Kind of cute and charming how many smart econo-pundit types expect this jobs market will spur Bernanke to action. Gang, he's done.


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Comments [8]

John from Greenpoint

Brian, I count at least four times on today's show that you referred "hipsters in Brooklyn." Does anyone stop to ask what this term even means? Is seems it's just a catch-all for young white people living in N. Brooklyn. I've lived in Greenpoint for seven years and have been increasingly annoyed by how the press just throws that term around in a self-satisfied way. It's reductive, and it certainly doesn't apply to all of us bk gentrifiers. Call us young professionals once in a while, it's a lot less condescending.

Jul. 12 2012 12:02 PM
Richard Pine from Corinth, NY

What did Romney say after the 17 seconds of boos? I had hoped to hear that, not merely the extended version of "boo" P.S. I'm not worried about equal time, I'm just really curious about how Romney reacted.

Jul. 12 2012 11:23 AM
joan from Brooklyn

This New Jersey running for Senate guy is inarticulate. God help us.

Jul. 11 2012 11:16 AM
Jack Jackson from Central New Jersey

Well, I can see that we are never going to agree...The problem is how to stimulate aggregate demand. The Keynesian way is for the government to spend borrowed money and THEN tax the recovered economy appropriately in order to pay it back. IF (and god I hope that it DOES NOT HAPPEN) Mitt Romney is elected, how much would you like to wager that the one of the first laws that Congress passes is a new 'targeted stimulus' bill that uses borrowed money to increase aggregate demand? I would even give you odds.

If, however, Obama is re-elected the GOP will maintain their disingenuous 'We owe too much money and need to cut things...' policy because too much of the electorate don't know beans about macro-economics and believe that the GOP gives a darn about how much money the government owes.

The election is in the hands of the young and the immigrants.

Jul. 09 2012 12:50 PM
max from Brooklyn

A recent caller mentioned a corollary relation between illgal workers and black unemployment, it doesent take a rocket surgeon to see some evidence of the truth in this. A false economy of lower paid workers in the hospitality, construction, and even manufacturing industries as low level employees bring cost down and increase profit margins for owners and stock holders. This doesn't even cover foreignworkers brought in legally on temporary visas to do work.

I have seen this first hand and have been a victim of jobs being offered at low wages preventing people frombeing able to survive in a normal low income situation based on income v cost of living. It would be easy to see how US workers could be displaced.

Jul. 09 2012 11:55 AM

I take that back, Gary. I didn't see that you DID mention Morgenthau in the introductory paragraph. I apologize.

Jul. 06 2012 07:19 PM

Gary, you forgot to write who said that quote about the FDR administration. It was his Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau.,_Jr.#Fiscal_responsibility

Jul. 06 2012 06:59 PM
gary from queens

Government cannot creat real jobs. Certainly not with borrowed money to pay their wages. More permanent employment comes from wealth creation. Profits yields expansion and investment, and that yields jobs. Real jobs. Enough to pay for the government jobs.

And the jobs allegedly created and saved by the economic stimulus law----costing upwards of $821 billion----that President Barack Obama signed on Feb. 17, 2009, cost at a minimum, an average of $228,055 each, according to data released on Feb. 23, 2011 by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). That's almost a quarter of a million dollars to create one minimum wage job! That's how efficiently government "creates" jobs.

Another U.S. president who tried to spend his way out of a recession---using printed or borrowed money---was Franklin Roosevelt. And all he had accomplished was to turn a simple recession----made worse from government spending by his predecessor, President Hoover----into a decades-long depression. The New Deal----Roosevelt's "stimulus plan"----delayed our recovery.

How? When government becomes a player, it chases away private investment. Who would want to start a business in a field in which your competitor is getting government subsidies or tax breaks, or is in partnership with the government, or is bailed out by government? (Obama, for example, essentially forced non-unionized auto workers to pay for the pensions of unionized GM workers.) A "capital strike" is what occurred then, as it's occurring now under Obama. For the same reasons.

And the new regulations and mandates, which always follows government investment, creates economic uncertainty. The only thing that finally created economic growth and put people back to work was World War II. Thanks to the New Deal's huge influx of government dollars into the economy, the stock market hadn't returned to it's pre-depression highs until well into the 1950s.

Roosevelt's Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau Jr. admitted that the New Deal had failed in it's mission in testimony before the Democrat majority-run House Ways and Means Committee on May 9, 1939:

We tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong [...] somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises [...] I say after eight years of the Administration (Franklin Roosevelt from 1931-1939) we have just as much unemployment as when we started… And an enormous debt to boot!

Jul. 06 2012 10:43 AM

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