Streams

Predictions for the NY Primaries

Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 09:00 PM

A few brave souls, including Carl Paladino's campaign manager, my mom, and Newsday reporter Reid Esptein, offered their predictions on tonight's races.

The consensus from the predictions (submitted before polls closed) is that Tea Party-backed Carl Paladino overtakes Rick Lazio in the Republican primary; progressive Eric Schneiderman holds off the opposition in the Democratic attorney general's race, Rep. Charlie Rangel cruises to re-election; embattled State Senator Pedro Espada succumbs to unified opposition, and former State Senator Hiram Monserrate gets denied a return to the legislature.

We'll see.

Anyway, here are the predictors (If I missed yours, stick it in the comments section):

NY GOP GOV PRIMARY

Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
56: Lazio
44: Paladino

Operative Eric Kuo
55: Lazio
44: Paladino

Publisher/Editor Michael Schenkler
53: Lazio
47: Paladino

My Mom, Myra Paybarah
53: Lazio
47: Paladino

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
56: Lazio
40: Paladino

Former Attorney John Ohara
57: Paladino
43: Lazio

Consultant Evan Stavisky
55: Paladino
45: Lazio

Consultant Bob LIff
54: Paladino
46: Lazio

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
54: Lazio
46: Paladino (or "Sith Lord Palpatino" as Naparstek calls him)

Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
53: Paladino
46: Lazio
1: Other

Pollster Peter Feld
53: Paladino
47: Lazio

Paladino's Campaign Manager Michael Caputo
52: Paladino
48: Lazio

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
52: Paladino
48: Lazio

NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
51: Paladino
49: Lazio

Operative Michael Fragin
51: Paladino
48: Lazio

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
49: Paladino
47: Lazio
3: Other

AG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

My Mom, Myra Paybarah
46: Schneiderman
20: Brodsky
17: Rice
11: Coffey
6: Dinallo

Former Attorney John Ohara
44: Schneiderman
41: Rice
5: Brodsky
5: Coffey
5: Dinallo

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
39: Schneiderman
31: Rice
13: Cofffey
8: Brodsky

Consultant Evan Stavisky
38: Schneiderman
32: Rice
15: Coffey
9: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Operative Eric Kuo
38: Schneiderman
35: Rice
21: Coffey
3: Dinallo
2: Coffey

NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
36: Schneiderman
31: Rice
14: Coffey
13: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
35: Schneiderman
28: Rice
18: Coffey
15: Brodsky
5: Dinallo

Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
35: Schneiderman
25: Rice
20: Coffey
12: Brodsky
8: Dinallo

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
33: Schneiderman
31: Rice
16: Coffey
14: Brodsky
6: Dinallo

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
32: Schneiderman
28: Rice
19: Coffey
13: Brodsky
8: Dinallo

Consultant Bob Liff
28: Schneiderman
21: Rice
19: Dinallo
16: Brodsky
6: Coffey

Operative Michael Fragin
28: Rice
27: Schneiderman
19: Coffey
13: Dinallo
10: Brodsky

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
28: Scheiderman
26: Rice
19: Brodsky
18: Coffey
9: Dinallo

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
26: Rice
25: Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
17: Coffey
13: Dinallo

Pollster Peter Feld
29: Rice
27 Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
13: Dinallo
12: Coffey

NY-1 GOP PRIMARY

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Altschuler
42: Cox
4: Demos

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
40: Altschuler
34: Cox
26: Demos

NY-13 GOP PRIMARY

Pollster Peter Feld
62: Grimm
38: Allegretti

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Grimm
46: Allegretti

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
55: Grimm
45: Allegretti

NY-14 DEM PRIMARY

Pollster Peter Feld
83: Maloney
17: Saujani

Former Attorney John Ohara
73: Maloney
27: Saujani

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
68: Maloney
32: Saujani

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
66: Maloney
34: Saujani

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
54.5: Maloney
45.5 Saujani

NY-15 DEM PRIMARY

Consultant Bob Liff
59: Rangel
21: Powell
8: Johnson
7: Tasini
5: Morgan

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
48: Rangel
30: Powell
11: Tasini
6: Morgan
5: Johnson

Former Attorney John Ohara
47: Rangel
38: Powell
6: Johnson
6: Tasini
3: Morgan

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
44: Rangel
24: Powell
18: Johnson
8: Morgan
6: Tasini

Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
41: Rangel
26: Powell
17: Johnson
9: Tasini
7: Morgan

Conservative GOV PRIMARY

Former Attorney John Ohara
55: Largio
45: Lazio

Consultant Bob Liff
67: Lazio
33: Largio

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Lazio
44: Largio

Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
65: Lazio
35: Lorigo

GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Gillibrand)

Consultant Bob Liff
41: Blakeman
40: Malpass
19: DioGuardi

Aaron Naparstek
41: Malpass
40: DioGuardi
29: Blakeman

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
34: DioGuardi
33: Malpass
32: Blakeman

GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Schumer)

Consultant Bob Liff
61: Berntsen
39: Townsend

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Berntsen
44: Townsend

DEM PRIMARY US SENATE

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
95: Gillibrand
4: Goode

Consultant Bob Liff
78: Gillibrand
22: Goode

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
77: Gillibrand
23: Goode

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode

Former Attorney John Ohara
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode

State Senate: 30

Consultant Bob Liff
55: Perkins
45: Smikle

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
55: Smikle
45: Perkins

Former Attorney John Ohara
56: Perkins
44: Smikle

State Senate 31 (Schneiderman's Seat)

Consultant Bob Liff
48: Espaillat
41: Levine
8: Lewis
3: Munoz

State Senate 33

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
45: Rivera
42: Espada
2: Padernatch

Consultant Bob Liff
54: Rivera
41: Espada
0: Padernacht

Blogger Aaron Naparstek
50: Rivera
46: Espada
4: Padernacht

State Senate: 39

Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
75: Moya
25: Monserrate

Consultant Bob Liff
66: Moya
34: Monserrate

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Moya
44: Monserrate

State Senate: 10

Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
61: Huntley
39: Nunes

Consultant Bob Liff
53: Huntley
47: Nunes

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