In a district that's enrolled more than three-to-one Democrat, Assemblyman David Weprin is leading his Republican opponent Bob Turner by six points, according to Siena Research Institute poll today, with neither candidate being favored by a clear majority.
“While Weprin holds a two-to-one advantage over Turner with Democrats, Turner has a nearly six-to-one lead among Republicans and a slim four-point lead with independent voters," Siena College pollste rSteven Greenberg said in a statement. "Queens voters favor Weprin by 10 points, while Brooklyn voters, who account for about one-third of the district, support Turner by a six-point margin.”
Turner's attempt to sway Jewish voters on the issue of Israel hasn't proven to be significantly effective, as Weprin has retained the support of 56 percent of the voters identifying themselves as Jewish. What Turner does have over Weprin is loyalty: 60 percent of voters said they were absolutely certain the would cast their vote for the Republican, with only 47 percent saying the same for the Democrat Weprin.
“Five weeks until Election Day, and this special election is a wide open race with both candidates trying to become more known to the voters of the district and earn their support,” Greenberg was quoted saying. “With a low turnout expected and limited media exposure in the nation’s most expensive media market, the test of both campaigns will be to mount strong voter identification efforts and effective get-out-the vote operations. The campaign that does a better job on those crucial campaign tasks will likely produce a victory for their candidate."
The poll consisted of 501 likely voters and had a 4.4 percent, plus or minus, margin of error. Siena said it intends to poll the district again prior to Election Day.