I'm a betting girl.
No crazy amounts, I'm not Mitt Romney - able to throw around $10,000 on bets (though I note for the record I don't begrudge him the ability to do so) but five dollars at a time, I'll take action on most political stories of the day.
My greatest hits from the last year include:
Five dollars apiece from Blaze writer Billy Hallowell and comedian Ugarles, the only two people silly enough to bet that Anthony Weiner's twitter was actually hacked. It's easy to mock them now but I offered this bet on day two of the scandal and things weren't so cut and dried back then. To visit that simpler time just look at the comments on my post about it. Oh, innocence.
I lost a five dollar bet to Greg Pollowitz at National Review when I bet that Tim Pawlenty would go further in the race than Michelle Bachmann. While that's a bit of a head-palm for me, it's even more so for Tim Pawlenty! He could've been the main not-Romney right now. Greg let me go double or nothing in a Mormon last longer bet--he actually thought Huntsman would stay in longer than Romney. I shouldn't laugh too hard, of course, I'm just lucky nobody offered me a bet on my Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee prediction.
Which brings me to my current bet, again with Billy Hallowell. Billy tweeted recently that he wouldn't be surprised if Obama made a move to legalize gay marriage before the election. After I stopped laughing I offered him my standard five dollar bet which he accepted. I would've went higher on this one. If I had a farm, I'd bet it.
If there's one thing we know about President Obama, it's that this is not a man to take risks with his political life. He's been "evolving" on gay marriage for years now but there's no way he'll fully become man before the election.
For one thing, gay marriage remains an issue that splits America. While New York has legalized gay marriage, liberal bastions like California and Oregon specifically voted not to. Obama isn't taking the chance that his support of gay marriage will lead to him having to compete in otherwise firmly blue states.
Anyway, Obama knows the gay vote is his no matter what he does. Despite the fact that he has the same position on gay marriage as Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, Obama knows that the gay vote is pretty consistently Democrat. He doesn't have to do anything for them, he knows they've got nowhere to go. It's never good for any group to vote as a monolithic bloc as this leads to being taken for granted and this is a prime example of that.
Everyone believes Obama is actually for gay marriage and just isn't politically brave enough to act on it. I look forward to collecting my five dollars from Billy but the truth is I would love to see the president take a real stand on this kind of issue. And no, it's not because I think it will mean certain electoral death for him, though it may, and it's not because I'm for gay marriage, though I am. It's because it would show me that Obama stands for something, anything. I didn't always agree with President Bush but I always knew who he was and where he stood. With Obama, everything is vague platitudes.
He ran on closing Guantanamo but kept it open and signed indefinite detention into law. He ran on ending the Bush tax cuts but he extended them. His supporters think he's anti-war but we invaded Libya on his watch. He's an empty man, he'll be anything for anyone and there's a good chance he'll be re-elected to a second term (Americans love giving second chances). I'd love to see something from him that showed me our president has any depth at all. I'd take losing my 5 bucks for that.