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The Patchwork NH Vote: Where they Won and Why it Matters

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Mitt Romney greets supporters after addressing a primary night victory rally in Manchester, New Hampshire. (EMMANUEL DUNAND/Getty)

Mitt Romney had a lot of advantages going into New Hampshire – from residency to voter demographics – and in the end it all showed up on Tuesday night.

The former Massachusetts Gov. won nine of the state’s 10 counties. He won a larger percentage of the vote than he or Sen. John McCain won in 2008 – 39 percent to 37 percent for McCain. And using Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown of counties, he won in all of the state’s county types from the wealthy Monied Burbs to the small town Service Worker Centers.

The meaning for the nominating process has already been hashed over and over. In winning both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, Romney has pulled off a trick no non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate has even done. He looks well-prepared for the votes to come down the road in South Carolina and Florida this month and probably for the nomination.

But the potentially bigger message out of New Hampshire is Romney has firmly established himself as the candidate best able to take on President Barack Obama in the places that matter, the wealthy suburban areas. Those counties are where the 2012 election is likely going to be won or lost, and in Iowa and now New Hampshire Romney has shown they are his strength.

How Big A Win Was It?

If there is one way Romney’s New Hampshire win might be criticized it would be that the he didn’t hit 40 percent statewide. With 95 percent of the precinct’s reporting he was at 39 percent of the vote.

But you could argue that his numbers in the wealthy Monied Burbs, where he had 43 percent of the vote, helped make up for that deficiency. His next closest challenger in the Burbs was Texas congressman Ron Paul who had 22 percent of those counties votes.

As we have noted in other posts, if Romney gets the nomination it appears the 2012 fight will really hinge on the Burbs – both Romney and President Obama are raising the most money from those places. Obama won the Monied Burbs by double digits in 2008, and any GOP candidate who wants to unseat him doesn’t need to win the Burbs outright, but needs to cut into that margin mightily. After two nomination fights, Romney is clearly in the best position to make that case.

Are there any concerns for Romney in the New Hampshire vote totals? Maybe.

The small-town and less wealthy Service Worker Centers were not as good for him. He won 32 percent of their vote and he only did seven percentage points better than Ron Paul in them – Paul had 25 percent of the Service Worker county vote. But Romney still improved on his performance in New Hampshire’s Service Worker counties from 2008, when he had only 26 percent of the voter from those places.

 

And Now?

The GOP nomination carnival has already moved on to South Carolina, where the next primary contest awaits on January 21. And there will be some different challenges there for Romney. The state is largely made up of county that Patchwork Nation calls Minority Central – places with large African American population and lower incomes – and Evangelical Epicenters. Both those types tend to be quite socially conservative and could present real challenges for a former governor of Massachusetts.

But after two straight wins for him, it may be that rank-and-file voters will start lining up behind Romney. And even if voters in South Carolina are opposed to him, the presidential field is so fragmented now, it’s hard to see any anti-Romney sentiment gathering force behind any one candidate – last night in New Hampshire every major candidate pledged to go on.

There might have been one piece of not-so good news out of New Hampshire for Romney in the form of the Bain Capital dust-up.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has begun to attack Romney over Romney’s time at the investment house, saying it amounted to working for a firm that killed jobs. And, of course, the Gingrich Super PAC’s much-discussed anti-Bain video is coming soon to a computer monitor near you. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who essentially skipped in New Hampshire, has been in South Carolina talking to voters and comparing Bain to a corporate “vulture.”

Will those attacks carry a lot of weight in South Carolina? Maybe not. South Carolina is a very conservative right-to-work state. But the populist argument against Bain and Romney may carry a lot more weight in states with a lot of unions and Service Worker Center counties – swing states like Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan – in the general election.

South Carolina may offer a sneak preview of that fight and early indications are it could a donnybrook.

Dante Chinni is the director of Patchwork Nation and author of the book Our Patchwork Nation: The Surprising Truth About the "Real" America

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