Risks in 2012

Thursday, January 05, 2012

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, discusses his report on global political risks for 2012.


Ian Bremmer

Comments [9]

Martin Chuzzlewit from Manhattan


Jan. 05 2012 12:47 PM
Alice Zinnes from Park Slope, Brooklyn

Fracking actually is one of the greatest threats to our economy. The PPI (Public Policy Institute) Report that is often referred to by industry and legislators has been largely refuted, by the July 2011 Keystone Research Center and by a Jan. 2, 2012 report by the economist Jannette Barth. Briefly, in Pennsylvania, rather than creating 48,000 jobs, government records show fracking has created fewer than 6000 jobs. The PPI report neglects the substantial loss of traditional jobs and the effects of a boom and bust economy; neglects externalized costs such as road and bridge repairs, increased hospital and emergency expenses; neglects the negative effects on housing, home mortgages and home insurance; overstates gas reserves for NYS; unjustly compares NY to Texas since Texas does not use migrant labor whereas 70% of the labor in NY would likely be migrant ( which means most of the earned income will be sent out of state and income taxes will not be collected by NY); exaggerates the life span of a frack well; incorrectly suggests the ad valorem tax will be sufficient; and neglects health and environmental costs. NY's pension plan is threatened because, as the NY Times Drilling Down series has shown, fracking investment strategies are a ponzi scheme, and our pension plan is largely invested in fracking. Also, the NYC watershed is threatened, both because our aqueducts are fragile and might crack or collapse from the pressure caused by fracking (fracking and injection wells are known to cause earthquakes within a five-mile radius), and because drilling in our reservoirs is not actually banned but will be re-visited in three years. Rather than frack, the upstate NY economy would be better served by converting to sustainable energy. Similar towns in Germany (called the 500 Towns) have done so, and now have zero unemployment. Plus, each family saves about $1000/year in heating and energy bills.

Jan. 05 2012 11:53 AM
jgarbuz from Queens

North Korea is no threat. Iran is.

Jan. 05 2012 11:45 AM

Ian Bremmer conveniently leaves out the US role in suppressing Arab democratic efforts, especially in Bahrain but also in Egypt and elsewhere.

Jan. 05 2012 11:39 AM

bill, they have. which is why they have purchased housing in manhattan (along w vancouver, la, nj, vegas, miami, paris, rio, honolulu, etc)

who wants to work under those conditions or breathe that air? not them!

Jan. 05 2012 11:07 AM
Bill from New Rochelle

Martin, what else can you expect, wwhen the GOP Presidential hopefuls all resemble Anthony Chuzzlewit, Montague Tigg, Seth Pecksniff and Jonas Chuzzlewit

Jan. 05 2012 11:07 AM
Bill from New Rochelle

I/ve always thought that all Chinese managers, plant operators, and executives, should be sat down in a room; and have read to them in cHINESE, A TRANSLATION OF the jungle BY UPTON SINCLAIR; and THE OCTOPUS, by Frank Norris. There are aprobably a few other; but China needs to understand, as a world-class producer, that quality is everything, and not cheapness.
And, as Little Anthony sang, ... (bad) reputation, and you walk alone.

Jan. 05 2012 10:59 AM

and martin knows an unhinged looney when he sees a fellow looney

Jan. 05 2012 10:16 AM
Martin Chuzzlewit from Manhattan

As Bremmer notes, their are dangerous political risks right here at home.
He is certainly correct about "....ugliest Presidential campaigns in modern U.S. history"

But, it won't be from the Republican side. The Teflon Prez's lapdog media has artfully succeeded in framing all tough criticism of this Empty Suit as veiled racism.

Really... listen to Deborah Wasserman-Schultz's recent ugly smearing in Iowa of every Republican policy (and this woman is the head of the Democratic National Committee!!!!...what have we come to??!!) as racist, anti-woman, anti-senior, anti-child, anti-middle class and blah, blah blah. She sounds like an unhinged looney.

This country has never been more divided, and President Obama is going for broke in taking that class hatred as far as it will get him in November. He only cares about himself.

Jan. 05 2012 10:04 AM

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