The Folly of Prediction

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Human beings love to predict the future, but we're quite terrible at it. So how about punishing all those bad predictions?

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Comments [1]

Sarah Kleppe

Although I do agree that making a punishment for incorrect or bad/wrong predictions would probably result only in 'more correct' predictions, or none at all, I think that the incorrect and 'bad' predictions make things fun for the public, not that that's a good thing. No one likes to be constantly reminded of their failures, especially on public television, but being fined or having to go to jail because you risked everything on one guess would probably feel worse for the guesser. And, as pointed out in the podcast, this would result in less guessing for any event, major or minor. But humans have the need to guess the future and know what's coming, so not having these constant "should"s or "could"s in the news (ironically) could end in some kind of withdrawal from the people who pay attention to those predictions. I think that, as bad as they are, we need the predictions, both good and bad to keep us running

Oct. 11 2014 01:57 PM

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