On Demand
Rents Stabilizing?
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Sam Chandan, President of Real Estate Economics LLC and Lockhart Steele of Curbed.com discuss the effect of the economic downturn on NYC rents.
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Housing prices won't stabilize till the DAY the govt gets and promises to stay the F out of the market so owners, sellers, renters, and would-be-buyers know what prices $#REALLY$%# are!
when will NYC hit the bottom i'm ready to buy.
(i had no idea i could have gotten a no money down loan years ago so i've been saving)
Brian, Rents will remain the same or go higher for 2 reasons:
(1) My situation in my rental property - I am NOT overextended on my mortgage, but my operating and maintenance costs have increased dramatically within the last 8 years - Most of the costs go for heating, property taxes, water and sewage. - What I pay in taxes has gone up about 60%; Water & Sewage at least 40%; Heating, electric about 100%; Insurance at least 300% -This is despite the fact that I have made a conscientious effort to lower energy and water consumption for environmental and financial reasons.
Even if there are declines in energy prices, they will not drop that much. There is also money that needs to be saved for maintenance and upgrades for appliances, fixtures, etc.
(2) Those who invested in the past 4-5 years: They are OVEREXTENDED in that they bought properties at OVER INFLATED UNREALISTIC Prices - THey will need to maintain and probably increase their rents in order to keep up with mortgage payments. Their operating costs will increase as in #1 as the City used property taxes and water & sewage fees as cash cows. Also, they will not be able to get ANY credit for maintenance and upgrades
Is the resilience against real estate deflation present in the market-rate rental market or is it only present in the regulated market? The latter's resilience could be explained by the market rate having not yet fallen to the cap set by regulation.
hjs - you are a SMART person. you DO NOT want to find yourself in a situation where you own 100% on a mortgage for an over-inflated property
Sorry, Leo, keep dreaming.. If you bought after 2001 you are in for a rude awakening. Rents are coming down despite your expenses or perceived value of your portfolio.
TJS - I bought in 1996 - so I did not buy an over-inflated property - but rental properties are not money makers as people clain. - I have not raised rents in the past 2 years - the idea is to maintain costs and not over charge
I'm a landlord and I've always assumed that as less people are able to buy homes, it drives up the demand for rental units and props up the rental market. With mortgages as difficult to get as they are today, I expect that all those folks who are not able to finance a home will have to live somewhere and therefore continue to rent --- and thereby keep rents much higher than the economy suggests they should be.
how do rents behave in different parts of the city - ie brooklyn vs manhattan? how do you expect it to chabge in the next few years?
oh, and by the way, if anyone is interested in renting my huge and beatiful gramercy apt - please let me know!
i live at the avalon on morningside. it's a huge building but i don't see that there are many residents here. the building is offering 250 to bring a friend here and on their website they are offering a month or 2 for signing. A friend of mine, a real estate broker, has sd that the building is only a third full. the building brokers say there are very few apts left.
rents are definitely down! my roomate and i have a 2 bedroom in tribeca that we pay nearly $3000/month. the mgmt company is now renting the same type of unit in our building for $2195. that's 20% less per month! also, looking at other listings for places in the neighborhood you can see rents going way down- a 600 sq ft studio in a doorman building with gym, roof terrace etc for $1800? when do you see that? sadly, i can't move and take advantage of this any time soon...
Those of us in rent stabilized "homes" are seeing our rent increases excellerate. Recently getting an additional surcharge because of the price of oil (allegedly).
Perhaps some of the previous commentaries would be happy to get of all the sticking old people out of town so they won't loose money on a bad decision.
Well, if my landlord is representative, rents certainly won't go down because damand will continue to exceed supply. So long as someone will pay a high rent, there is no incentive to lower the price. I'm talking about those landlords who own many properties -- not the little guys with only a few units.
Well, if my landlord is representative, rents certainly won't go down because damand will continue to exceed supply. So long as someone will pay a high rent, there is no incentive to lower the price. I'm talking about those landlords who own many properties -- not the little guys with only a few units.
I think rents are down. Also, I see many storefronts for rent. I have a newly renovated apartment in Ditmas Park/West Midwood and I haven't been able to rent it since September.
After 9/11, I had to move. Several real estate agents told me that trying to get landlords to understand that they couldn't _always_ raise rents was like trying to teach ballet to a brick.
From the landlord comments here, nothing has changed. The average New York slumlord thinks he or she has a god-given natural right to raise rent at least 5% each year.
Watch the rent guidelines board. It _will_ raise rent again next year.
leo
then it's good i did not know i could have gotten a zero down loan, but now i'm waiting for the bottom. when is it going to happen?
[[BL Moderator Writes: A few comments have been removed for violating the WNYC posting policy. We do our best to keep the posts civil and productive to the discussion on the air. Disagreement is fine. Personal, cheap shots are not. The decision was that of the moderator, not Brian Lehrer, FYI.
Thanks,
-BL Show-]]
Hugh, how is a NYC landlord supposed to keep up with skyrocketing heating/utility expenses, real estate taxes, AND upkeep and maintain an aging building against ever stricter standards and measures WITHOUT raising rents?
Leo from Queens in confused.
Yeah, we get what landlords NEED. But when the market won't bear it, they are screwed.
You don't have the folks to pay the higher rents anymore, so they can't ask whatever they just won't get it.
"I'm a landlord and I've always assumed that as less people are able to buy homes, it drives up the demand for rental units and props up the rental market."
That has been the case in many prior downturns, but 1) NYC just took a major haircut in jobs and income, so there is less $$$ to pay for anything and 2) there is TONS of new rental inventory coming to market, given all the new condos that can't sell, and are being rented instead.
There was a huge price bubble, but there was also a rental bubble as well.
Both are popping.
"Hugh, how is a NYC landlord supposed to keep up with skyrocketing heating/utility expenses, real estate taxes, AND upkeep and maintain an aging building against ever stricter standards and measures WITHOUT raising rents? "
This is NYC.... since when do market needs factor into pricing.
Totally agreed that landlords are screwed here... but what "should be" and what is don't match up.
Thank the corrupt legislature for ensuring we have a completely inefficient housing market in NYC.... which also helped create the bubble which is not popping.
I just finished searching for a 2 bedroom apartment in brooklyn having decided to move to a new nabe after living in williamsburg for 6 years - I found that the inventory was not as high as i thought it would be, but that prices were highly negotiable - most apartments listed at around $2500 would be negotiable as far down as $2100 or $2200 - and this is greenpoint, williamsburg, park slope, carroll gardens, etc.
I went apartment hunting a fews days ago. The aplication fees were over $2100. In addition to that they wanted a month rent and two months security, and lets not forget 15% commision for the agent. How can anyone afford three months security and 15% in this economy?
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