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July 05, 2008 | 69°F fog

The Brian Lehrer Show

Follow Up Friday: Commodities Speculation

A commenter on our website chided us for not exploring the connection between speculation in the commodities market and the world-wide food crisis. We follow up and explore this under-the-radar factor with James Galbraith, Professor of Government at the University of Texas.

Further Reading: Speculators and Soaring Food Prices


Listener Comments Comment | Refresh | Back to Episode
[1]
Posted by: JoshL
May 09, 2008 - 10:05AM

On this note, are governments (such as Singapore, Dubai etc.)-backed investment funds purchasing US farmland for export-only to China and Asia? If so does this dynamic relate to commodity prices, either by lowering or raising them?

[2]
Posted by: RJ
May 09, 2008 - 10:39AM
Brooklyn

And what about the simple profiteering of agri-business? The general principle of supply and demand that allows massive corps to make as much money as they can grab out of the desperate needs of people for food?

[3]
Posted by: Daniel
May 09, 2008 - 10:39AM
Brooklyn

For what it's worth, the WSJ had a story on this subject yesterday, reporting on a survey of economists the paper conducts periodically:

Bubble Isn't Big Factor in Inflation: Economists Blame Food, Fuel Run-Ups On Fundamentals

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB121026120931177437.html

Not that economists are never wrong, but...

[4]
Posted by: sdf
May 09, 2008 - 10:39AM

Given the emasculation over the past couple yrs of the US dollar value, US bonds and US stock market -- in combination of the huge jump in value of petroleum -- the fact this speculation is happening only now demonstrates how dumb and slow investors really are. Food has been too cheap for many many years -- compared to real estate, which has NO inherent value by contrast yet accounts for 4x consumers' spending.

[5]
Posted by: hjs
May 09, 2008 - 10:40AM
11211

but if factors are seen on the horizon (ie bio fuel) why shouldn’t futures prices go up?

[6]
Posted by: sdf
May 09, 2008 - 10:41AM

Tom Keene on Bloomberg radio -- covers this in delightful detail w thought leaders daily. Podcasts.

[7]
Posted by: jeff
May 09, 2008 - 10:45AM
brooklyn

unfair to say NPR hasn't covered...

just this morning Marketplace celebrated

the ingenuity of these opportunists.

[8]
Posted by: Matt Siegel
May 10, 2008 - 01:51PM
Brooklyn, NY

I understand how speculation in the futures market could push up the price of non-perishable commodities such as oil, because sellers might see the high futures prices and decide to hold their oil in inventory for a few months, hoping to cash in when those futures prices become actual -- i.e., when the futures contracts come due. This, in turn, would lower the current supply driving up current prices. But it seems to me that this sort of thing could never happen with perishable food, because sellers cannot put off selling their inventories indefinitely, since their inventories will rot. Perhaps things like corn and rice can be stored for a while -- much like oil. But very perishable items, such as fruits, vegetables and milk, shouldn't be substantially affected by futures prices. (Of course, in the very long term, even these perishable products could be affected, e.g., if farmers were to change their planting decisions for next season based on their expectations about prices in the distant future. But once the planting decision is made, if you are dealing with perishable food, then you cannot hold inventories against expected future price increases, no matter how much you may want to do so.) I am not an expert in this area. Am I missing something?

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