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• [1] J.C. from Minneapolis July 10, 2007 - 10:39AM

  A caller said that he feared that an Iraqi civil war would spill out over the entire Middle East. I've always been skeptical of blatant assertions that civil wars spread to other countries. Could someone who reads this comment give me some examples of civil wars that have spilled over into neighboring countries? When is it right to assume that a civil war will become a regional war? Thanks.

  
  
• [2] jonathan sanders from near council foul relations July 10, 2007 - 10:45AM

  not Vietnam, Korea, see Edward R Murrow

  "..... The war was phony -- no rationing, few controls, casual mobilization, little interference with the civilian economy. There was a war, but it was some distance away. The speeches of government leaders were resolute, as they are now in this country.

  Even before the [ 1 ] intervention in [ 2 ] we were committed, as a nation, to the proposition that our foreign policy must be based on strength, ours and that of our allies. We had concluded that the Russians would not negotiate realistically until we had created sufficient "situations is strength." It is now revealed, on the maps and in the dispatches, that we didn't have sufficient strength as it meant to deal with the [3] threat in a situation where the Russians have not committed a single soldier. In this war, unlike the last two, we do not have a screen of friendly nations who can -- and Winston Churchill's phrase -- hold the line until those were half-asleep become have prepared.

  Our leaders announced, and re-announced, a policy based upon strength. They've recently confessed the obvious, which is that we do not have adequate strength. And we do not appear to be acquiring it with any real sense of urgency.

  From Edward R. Murrow, radio broadcast 5 December 1950

  1Chinese

  2Korea

  3Communist

  
  
• [3] Ashraf from Pomona, NY July 10, 2007 - 10:51AM

  Iraq is unique when it comes to its ethnic and religious composition. The country that may have a similar composition is Lebanon. Considering the majority being Arabs, Sunni and Shia, Iraq may be divided into several categories. It maybe divided into Sunni (Arabs and Kurds) and Shia (Arabs). Iraq may also be divided into Arabs (Sunni and Shia) and Kurds (Non-Arabs). Regardless of how it is divided, there can be problems with at least one of the groups unless it is divided into Kurds, Sunni-Arabs and Shia-Arabs.

  Neighboring countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain have majority Sunni arabs with sizeable Shia populations to one degree or another. Lebanon is Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Christian Maronites, Druz. Alliances may not based on religion as there are Christian groups with Hizbullah.

  
  
• [4] Charles from Harlem July 10, 2007 - 11:21AM

  mr. simmons seems to be in the business of making conversions, business as well as spiritual. i read in forbes magazine that his first successful enterprise was selling fake cocaine on the streets of queens.

  what inspired his conversion to taking his businesses from the streets to legitimate music & fashion enterprises?

  
  
• [5] Scott from Manhattan July 10, 2007 - 02:43PM

  "Could someone who reads this comment give me some examples of civil wars that have spilled over into neighboring countries? When is it right to assume that a civil war will become a regional war?"

  Ken Pollack of the Brookings Institution has an article about containing the carnage in Iraq (you can find at http://www.brook.edu, Scholars by Name and then look under Pollack's papers) which deals with the circumstances under which civil wars spread. Two of the conditions for civil wars spreading that I recall are surrounding nations having representatives of the warring parties within their borders and the ability of the combatants to move into those countries to continue the fight. An additional factor which can increase the likelihood of conflict spreading is for warring factions to have patrons among the neighboring states.

  One example in Pollack's article is the Rwandan civil war where, skipping the part everyone knows about, after the Tutsi rebels gained enough strength to force the hard-line Hutus out, the hard-line Hutus did not go quietly. They instead moved to neighboring Congo where they continued their fight against the Tutsis in Rwanda and enflamed passions within Congo between Hutus and Tutsis there.

  In Iraq, the major factions involved in fighting both have patrons among the neighbors. Iran supports the Shia, Saudi Arabia the Sunnis and Syria allows fighters to move through its territory to join either side. In addition, Saudi Arabia has a Shiite minority in the north (which is also near the oil) and Syria is a hodgepodge of ethnicities, neither state being an example for ethnic harmony. Iran also has a disfavored Sunni minority. As for refugee flows, Syria and Jordan are heavy recipients of refugees, though I am not certain about Iran and Saudi Arabia.