Last weekend, pollster John Zogby declared the 2004 presidential race Kerry's to lose. On our show this morning, Gallup's Frank Newport agreed that Bush should be worried. He found this week that 47% of Americans now favor a reduction in the number of troops in Iraq, an increase of ten percent in just one month.

Newport said that since 1956, five of eight incumbent presidents were re-elected, and all of those enjoyed an approval rate of 50% or more from February onwards to election day. "With the 46% approval, Bush is closer to the three who lost than to the five who won."