2003: aluminum tubes and had weapons of mass destruction - fact, fact, fact etc.
Today: it was far from fact, but we were all made to believe it ='(

Thank-You to the 3 or 4 commenters who took it upon themselves to add to this topic -- without charging me $24.95.

On Mr. McRaney's earlier example of blaming a rape victim based on what she was wearing, I'm not sure that's the whole story. Years ago, a woman who lived in my apt. building was raped in the stairwell. The next day, I told an acquaintance what had happened, & he said, "What was she doing on the stairs?"

At 1st I was angry at him, but later I realized that 1 aspect of "blaming" someone for what happened to them is trying to find a way that it could have *not* happened--& then we can think that we can keep things from happening to us. We want the illusion that we have control over what happens, but the downside is the idea that if it happens anyway, it's our fault.

And Becky? Please. He wasn't saying *he* thinks it's a woman's fault for being in a bad neighborhood. He was explaining why people say that, not endorsing it.

I'm Googling while listening..guest's Twitter link to the quiz on Penguin's website but can't get the results without giving them access to my Facebook details. Unfair!

Next time can we have more 'science in the public interest' and less mass-marketing? Other than that, this is interesting segment. Thank you, Brian. Overconfidence is a big problem in America.

Brian, seriously. The field of heuristics and biases (availability and others) is well established and researched, most foundationally by the work of Kahneman and Tversky starting in the '70s. It's disappointing to hear a self-appointed "pop psychology" devotee expounding on these ideas that are not his own and on which he does not speak as intelligently as others can.

An example of the availability heuristic, by the way, is a person who knows a smoker (or a handful of smokers) who doesn't die of lung cancer and extrapolates from that that smoking doesn't cause lung cancer and that he can smoke without risk.

My husband, who has extensive training in emergency management, has drilled into my head - DO NOT do trust what others are doing or thinking - if you think there is an emergency, GET OUT. Even if others, following the normalcy fallacy, think you are overreacting. You are the one who will survive.

Love this love this love this. I am constantly bugging my colleagues about why we all suffer from confirmation bias and why would shouldn't extrapolate from associations or what happened to ourselves to our clients.

I think have maxed out at about 10 people in my social grooming environment -- and definitely have too many "friends" on Facebook. I got on long ago and only go on now and again to chat with my friends from 7th grade (we're now all in our mid-50s)

Definitely have experienced the normalcy bias in the decades I worked in international nutrition in developing areas of the world.

Also see:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

OMG this is nuts! I'm a nerd... he is an uninformed jerk. The facebook reference is ALL wrong.

Well, the first part of what he said kind of explains why the disgusting immoral and irresponsible blame the victim rhetoric of the Republican party helps them get elected over and over again

Psychology Nerd huh? Very bad example of the woman walking in a "bad neighborhood"..this guy is a jerk!

If this guest doesn't mention Kahneman & Tversky, it'll be the most egregious example of radio plagiarism on this show yet.