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Election Update

Monday, January 21, 2008

WNYC Political Director Andrea Bernstein on the results of the weekend caucus and primary.

Guests:

Andrea Bernstein

Comments [3]

ab

John

exactly! I'm confused why she is declared the winner when she didn't win in terms of the delagate count....wtf?????

Jan. 21 2008 11:47 AM
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John from Brooklyn

THE STORY IS THE PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT -- OBAMA IS UP BY 2

The Big Media narrative now is that Hillary has the "momentum," coming out of New Hampshire and Nevada.

In fact, the purpose of state primaries and caucuses is to begin the process of determining how many delegates will vote for each candidate at the Democrats' nominating convention in August.

The delegate vote will determine the nominee.

In Iowa, Obama won 16 pledged delegates to Clinton's 15.

In New Hampshire, Obama and Clinton tied at 9 pledged delegates each.

In Nevada, Obama again edged Clinton, 13 pledged delegates to 12.

So right now, the pledged delegate count is Obama 38, Clinton 36, Edwards 18.

When superdelegates -- Democratic elected officials, party leaders, and the like -- are added to these totals, Clinton leads Obama by between 50 and 100, depending on the source.

But this margin is primarily a reflection of the low- and mid-level Democratic establishment support that Clinton shored up in the first six months of the race.

And in any case, superdelegates -- once at the nominating convention -- virtually always defer to the voter preferences reflected in the distribution of pledged delegates.

So the pledged delegate count is the index we should be paying attention to -- and by that measure, Obama is leading by a hair.

This remains an extremely close race.

Jan. 21 2008 10:46 AM
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Richard G. Manegio from Wilton CT

Enjoy your show and especially today's series on Obama. You announced there would be additional Democratic pols to be featured in upcoming segments. Will you be featuring Republicans also?

Thank you

Richard

Jan. 21 2008 10:43 AM
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