Congressman Bob Turner (Courtesy of the Congressman)

Less than 5,000 votes separated Democrat David Weprin from his opponent, now Republican Congressman Bob Turner in last week’s 9th Congressional District contest. It wasn’t really a surprise, as the last poll before the election showed Turner up over Weprin by six points.

Turner ended up beating Weprin by almost eight points, according to unofficial Board of Election results. OK, so Turner did better than expected, but it wasn’t just that he did better; it was where he did better.

In the last Siena poll before the election, Weprin was down five points to Turner in Queens and 12 in Brooklyn. On Election Day, Weprin actually won the overall Queens vote, beating Turner by five percentage points.

But in the southeastern chunk of Brooklyn that made up less than a third of the voters in the 9th Congressional District, Turner won by a whopping two-to-one margin. This might not be surprising to some, but the Turner campaign made a strategic campaign hire that helped ensure that this conservative-leaning, heavily Russian area would be behind their candidate.

Governor Cuomo has been solidly against raising taxes on higher income makers in New York, but decided he thinks it's a good idea if President Obama does it. His office sent out this message earlier. Apparently as long as millionaires in New York are taxed by someone else, Cuomo is OK with it.

As the President has rightly realized, the federal government is facing not only a fiscal and debt crisis but needs to take a strong action to create jobs and grow our economy.

I urge Congress to move quickly to pass the President's plan so we can put New Yorkers and Americans back to work.

While I am against raising taxes in general, if taxes need to be raised to create jobs, balance the budget and lower the deficit then those increases need to be done at the federal level and on the wealthiest Americans, not the middle class.

New York State is one of the highest taxed states in the country. New York cannot have the people and businesses that create jobs and wealth in New York move to Connecticut or New Jersey which have lower taxes.

Pushing back on reported Republican attempts to create a new seat in the New York State Senate, Senate Democrats are rebutting the idea, calling the move illegal under the law.

"What the Senate Republicans are doing is illegal and no reading of the State Constitution would allow a new seat to be created. We are witnessing the depths that the Republicans will go to hold onto power," Mike Murphy, spokesperson for the Senate Democrats, said in a statement. "They are playing a dangerous game with the state constitution and the redistricting process."

The Dems are arguing the state's constitution explicitly states how to count the number of senate districts and that, however you count it, the state's population dictates 62 districts.

The Republicans, however, are vehemently denying any such plan exists. Scott Reif, spokesperson for the Senate Republicans, has called the suggestion "pure speculation."

A new poll released today showed the impact felt by Hurricanes Irene and Lee affected nearly one-in-two people. A Siena Research poll released this morning said 47 percent of respondents said they were affected by the storms, but nearly two-thirds say they're no more prepared than prior to the storms.

“From Long Island, into the city, up the Hudson and along the Susquehanna, this storm will be remembered for a long time,” said Siena Research Institute's director Dr. Don Levy in a statement. “In the areas hit by the storms, three quarters said roads were blocked or inaccessible, sixty-one percent had wind damage, downed trees, or roof damage and sixty percent experienced power outages. A majority in those areas say that there was local flooding and public buildings were closed. Nearly four in ten had water in their basements. Over one in ten faced evacuation.”

By Karen DeWitt, WXXI Capitol Bureau Chief

Health advocacy groups say it’s likely that New York State will miss another deadline to implement the new Federal health care law. Republicans in the State Senate, who control the chamber, are expressing new reservations about the health care exchanges, based on policy differences, not political opposition.

Scott Reif, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, says Senators are taking a “cautious, wait-and-see approach”, and have concerns that the federal program could result in New Yorkers paying $3.75 billion dollars more in taxes, thanks to new higher Medicare taxes for upper-income earners.

As I wrote here Wednesday, the idea that Congressman Bob Turner's victory Tuesday was some sort of bellwether rebuke of President Obama is wrongheaded (I'm talking to you @KarlRove).

As Gallup showed today, one of the many threads of this--that Jewish voters were finally going to flee the Democratic Party for redder pastures--is just not true. As many people have pointed out the Jewish vote in the 9th Congressional District is more conservative than the general Jewish population. As the graph below notes, Jewish voters are, you know, not psyched about Obama--but who is?!

Anyway, the quicker we can put the notion that the Jewish vote is swinging wildly right--in New York or anywhere else--the better.

  (Couresy of Gallup.)

This post has been updated.

Rafael Espinal, the Democratic and Conservative Party pick in Brooklyn's 54th Assembly District, managed to fend off two better-financed campaigns to become one of the new members of the New York State Assembly. The win was just as much a victory for Espinal's patrons as it was for the young candidate.

The long-time local assemblyman and head of the Brooklyn Democratic Party, Vito Lopez, was able to get his pick into a seat previously held by Congressman Ed Towns' son for nearly 20 years. Councilman Erik Martin Dilan, who Espinal works (or worked) for, is a strong ally of Lopez's, as is his father, Senator Martin Malavé Dilan.

But looking at the results, more than half of the voters in the race voted for someone other than Espinal, who captured 44.4 percent of the vote. The Espinal campaign had said before the race that they expected a primary challenge next year, and given the results, they're probably right.

Courtesy of the Assemblyman's office.

Not even 24 hours into his term as congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District and Bob Turner has already drawn the ire of at least one local political official.

Queens Assemblyman Rory Lancman just sent out an official statement on Congressman Turner's vote to block the National Labor Relations Board from challenging a new Boeing facility in North Carolina, which critics say was moved in retaliation against unionized workers.

"My new Congressman's honeymoon ended when his first vote in Washington was to undermine basic worker protections and enable companies to outsource American jobs overseas," Lancman said in the statement.

As David Freedlander over at Politicker noted, Lancman had wanted the job, but Queens party boss Congressman Joesph Crowley gave it to the now-defeated David Weprin. If the 9th Congressional District exists in 2012, Lancman could be a Democratic challenger gunning for Turner's job.

Bob Turner being sworn in today as the newest member of the House of Representatives. (Tory Mazzola)

The Board of Elections released these unofficial tally results from the races on Tuesday.

NY-9: Doomed to extinction? (Courtesy of LATFOR.)

Even before Bob Turner’s upset victory last night, a lot was made about the possibility that the 9th Congressional District might cease to exist soon.

But why, exactly? On a practical level, New York State is going to lose representation in Congress. We grew slower in comparison to other parts of the country over the last ten years, according to the US Census. Since the set number of seats in the House of Representatives are divvied up proportionally among the states based on population, New York is going to get two less seats come 2012.

This process happens every ten years, and in the past there has been an agreement between the Democrats and Republicans in the state legislature, which is responsible for drawing the political lines for all New York political districts. Since the Democrats control the Assembly, and the Republicans control the Senate, when they get together to carve up the state, each side would loses a seat. As the Democrats are strong downstate, they’d likely sacrifice a seat here and vice versa for the Republicans upstate.

It’s an interesting arrangement, as the Federal elected representatives have to lobby their colleagues in the state legislature. Generally speaking, seniority and political influence rule the process, with junior and weaker members more likely to be redistricted out of a job.

“These are political decisions and the lines are drawn in regards to political balance,” said Gerald Benjamin, a political science professor at SUNY New Paltz. “You’re not dealing with math here.”

I just called Bob Turner to congratulate him on a well-fought campaign.  He will now have the honor of representing Brooklyn and Queens in Congress, and I hope that he will work every day to represent all of the diverse communities that make up the 9th Congressional district.

I’m incredibly proud of the campaign that we ran, and incredibly grateful to the countless volunteers who worked day after day to bring our message to voters.  In doing so we raised the profile of issues like Medicare, Social Security, and tax relief for working families – issues that will be of critical importance for the next Congress.

Though we may not have won, our work is far from over.  The challenges that face our nation are many, and I will continue to work with all of my supporters to ensure that middle class New Yorkers have a real voice in our city, our state, and our country.

Congressman-elect Bob Turner (Courtesy of the Turner campaign)

Morning! Looking to get a number of things posted, including rundowns of the other races last night, but really wanted to give a quick recap from last night.

While it wasn't a surprise, Bob Turner's upset victory over David Weprin sent shockwaves through the political world. National pundits are calling it a rebuke of Obama and a foreboding omen for 2012.

Certainly that's how the Turner people tried to paint it from Day 1: The special election to fill the seat vacated by Anthony Weiner was a referendum, and sending Turner to Washington would show the president people were fed up.

And they are. Let's be real--people in the 9th Congressional District are not jazzed about the Obama White House. But they never have been. Obama won there with only 55 percent of the vote in 2008. The only other New York City congressional district that had a lower return for Obama sent Republican Michael Grimm to congress. The district's been going red for a number of election cycles.

While I don't want to take away from the Turner win, it had as much to do with Obama as it did a weak Democratic candidate. Likewise, I don't want to kick a guy when he's down, but if the name Weiner had been on the ballot, this district would still be held by Democrats.

Happy Election Day. Throughout the day we'll be updating this post with news from the campaign trail, as well as interesting info from around the web. We'll be with the candidates up until the race is decided so check back in regularly. You can also see the returns come in for the race here.

12:14 AM

From WNYC correspondent Yasmeen Khan

Turner supporters started the chant, "Yes we can!" -- a jab at Obama supporters. Turner quieted the crowd saying, "It's still me up here."

Turner is all smiles: "Maybe we started something," he said. "I sure hope so."

He says he starts work on Thursday

12:10 AM

From WNYC correspondent Yasmeen Khan

Turner has his whole family on stage and is giving a victory speech

12:08 AM

After giving the briefest of comments, Weprin headed straight for the door. Turner's victory speech is playing on the television as Weprin supporters followed Weprin's lead.

Compiled by WNYC's Alana Casanova-Burgess

Endorsement selections

Bob Turner (Courtesy of the Turner campaign)

Bob Turner: NY Daily News; NY Post; the Jewish Voice; former governor George Pataki; former mayors Ed Koch; former mayor Rudy Giuliani; Assemblyman Dov Hikind

David Weprin: The New York Times; Queens Tribune; El Diario; Senators Joseph Lieberman; Senator Kirsten Gilbrand; Senator Charles Schumer; City Council Speaker Christine Quinn; New York State AFL-CIO; SEIU; 32BJ; DC 37

Federal budget policies

Turner has publicized his goal of cutting federal spending by 35 percent across the board – but that he would not cut Social Security of Medicaid in their present form. Turner was endorsed by former Mayor Ed Koch in part because he has pledged not to privatize Medicare and Social Security and turn Medicaid into a block grant, as per Paul Ryan’s proposal. He also said that he would be open to increasing revenues.

Weprin has attacked Turner by saying his goals to cut federal spending are not realistic. “The Republicans in the House are looking to slash Social Security and Medicare. Frankly, people are scared,” he said. “I will fight to preserve Social Security and Medicare, not to privatize Social Security and Medicare.”

Zadroga Act for 9/11 first responders

Turner has said that the $4.3 billion health law for 9/11 first responders has flaws. “I think it is a little too broad,” he told the New York Daily News Editorial Board last month. Volunteers should not have been included in the law, he added.

Weprin shot back, supporting the law famously championed by Rep. Weiner. “Those volunteers risked their lives,” he said.

Israel

The focus early in the campaign seemed to be on competing support of Israel. The district is home to many Orthodox Jewish voters. For the record, here’s what both candidates said on the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC:

David Weprin (Colby Hamilton / WNYC)

Weprin: I think we have to be careful about asking Israel to make concessions that we’re not asking of the Palestinian Authority. Obviously, while there is aid to the Palestinian Authority certain support for recognition of the state of Israel is important but.. I don’t think we differ too much for our strength for the state of Israel. But I think we have to really talk about the other issues where there’s really a major difference.

Weprin, an Orthodox Jew, has also said that he disagrees with President Obama’s stance on Israel.

Turner: I think Mr. Weprin said it himself when he said I will follow the party caucus. The caucus is not always in line with what is in the best interest of Israel or even the U.S. in this regard. So I think that’s an important distinction… I think some UN votes, UN funding will be a part of this. Just the other day we had the Democratic caucus supporting Obama in paying the Palestinians who in turn are paying terrorists who are in Israeli prisons. … I think [cutting off all aid to the Palestinian authority from the U.S. is] a good starting point until we get some cooperation out of them in terms of firing rockets at Israel.

Debt Ceiling Vote

Weprin would not have voted for the compromise deal reached for the debt ceiling, but acknowledged that something had to be done to prevent default. Cuts to Medicare and Social Security would be particularly painful for New Yorkers, he said on WNYC. More recently, he told the Daily News Editorial Board that he thought the federal debt was $4 trillion. It is actually roughly $14 trillion.

Turner also called the deal imperfect, but said in a press release that he supports the deal reached in Washington. “This agreement is far from perfect, but it will protect Social Security and Medicare and prevent default on our debt, which would have damaged this weak economy even more.” Overspending on both sides of the aisle, he added, is to blame.

Gay Marriage

Turner has said he supports marriage as being between a man and a woman. He has received support in his campaign from the anti-gay marriage group, The National Organization for Marriage.

Weprin “supported the same-sex marriage bill in Albany” as a state Assemblyman, he told Brian Lehrer. “It was a civil issue. We basically just authorized civil marriage. It wasn’t a religious issue.”

Turner lives in the 9^th Congressional District, although Weprin does not.

By It's a Free Country blogger Stephen Reader

A sample ballot for tomorrow's special election. (WNYC)

Remember Anthony Weiner? Man! Where did the summer go?

Anyway, that guy is gone and after tomorrow we'll have a new representative of New York's 9th congressional district. The candidates are Republican Bob Turner and Democrat David Weprin, and the contest is being cast as a referendum on Barack Obama, etc.

Maybe you didn't know there was an election tomorrow. Maybe you don't know if you're even in this oh-so-coveted and exotic 9th district. Your eighth grade civics teacher would be ashamed. What's a New Yorker to do?

We've posted before about the financial dealings in the 54th Assembly District in Brooklyn. The three candidates are all pulling money from their networks of donors, and we had been asked--sometimes sarcastically--when we'd breakdown the donations to see, mostly, who had done the most fundraising in district.

Well, folks, ask and you shall receive is our mantra over at the Empire blog. Thanks to the map wizardry of WNYC's John Keefe, we've been able to break down the data from the Board of Election to paint a fiscal picture of where the candidates are getting their support.

First, some background and general info. What you're looking at are the donors to each campaign, not the individual donations. Looking at the number of unique donors is a better measure than total number of donations. The individual donors were then tagged to the map using their address information. Some of the addresses didn't compute, meaning a small percentage -- less than two percent -- aren't present on the map. Corporate, PAC and other group donations were combined with individuals in all averages and tallies.

Here are the raw numbers:

The first thing you notice is that, despite calls from a number of quarters for a breakdown of in-district donations, the truth is not one candidate managed to get into double digits when it comes to either total donations, or the percentage of money raised.

That being said, the Towns and Gonzalez campaigns have the highest totals, respectively. In truth, these ridiculously low in-district numbers shouldn't be surprising. The area we're talking about is a poor one, and raising tens of thousands of dollars in-district would have been a tall feet.

Still, no one can really claim to be pulling their support--at least financially--directly from the people they represent.

What's interesting about the map below is how close to home the candidates ended up raising money. Take a look for yourself and let us know what you think.

David Weprin, left, and Bob Turner ( )

The Weprin campaign is pulling out the big guns a day before voters go to the polls in the 9th congressional district. Governor Andrew Cuomo and former president Bill Clinton are asking voters to support the Democrat for congress. Cuomo's calls will start today. Click on the link to hear the audio.

Cuomo for Weprin

Hello, this is Governor Andrew Cuomo asking you to support David Weprin in tomorrow’s special election for Congress. I’ve known David for many years, and I’ve known him to be a leader who stands up for what’s right. In Congress he’ll stand up for middle class families and he’ll fight to preserve Social Security and Medicare. David will bring jobs to New York and get our economy moving.  That’s why he’s also been endorsed by the New York Times. Once again, this is Governor Andrew Cuomo and I’m asking you to support David Weprin for Congress. I hope you will.

Clinton's call will be going out tomorrow.

Clinton for Weprin

Hello, this is President Bill Clinton. I’m calling to ask you to support David Weprin in today’s special election for Congress. The New York Times endorsed David.  They support him for the same reasons I do: because he’ll stand up for the middle class, he’ll support a good program to put Americans back to work, and he’ll oppose the Tea Party plan to destroy Medicare. Again, it’s President Bill Clinton, I’m proud to support David Weprin for Congress and I hope you will too. Thanks.

Meanwhile, the Turner campaign this morning came out swinging for Israel, demanding the Obama administration rebuke Turkey over the Israeli embassy raiding last week.

"If Turkey wants to be a NATO member, it needs to behave like one," Turner said in a statement. "NATO countries don't militarily escort terrorist weaponry used to attack allies of fellow NATO members. The world is becoming a more dangerous place because of Mr. Obama's demonstrated ambivalence toward Israel and his naïve and academic belief in moral relativity. This is the real world, and President Obama must put his foot down."

Getty

New Yorkers are back on Mayor Bloomberg's side, thanks to his handling of Hurricane Irene according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. The mayor's job approval rating is up to 54 percent from 45 percent in late July. The vast majority of those polled -- 86 percent -- approved of the mayor's handling of Hurricane Irene.

“Maybe it was the decisive preparations for Irene – Bloomberg’s job approval has moved up nicely.  As usual, Manhattan likes him best of all,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a statement. “This survey was conducted after Hurricane Irene and during the storm about Deputy Mayor Stephen Goldsmith’s arrest – but maybe that second storm is a tempest in a teapot.

“The critics cried ‘overkill!’  But most people agreed with the mayor, ‘better safe than sorry.’  Overwhelmingly, Bloomberg’s handling of Irene gets high marks.”

Colby Hamilton / WNYC

The Times published its follow-up candidate profile of David Weprin in the race for congress out in Queens today. (I'm guessing Chris Hoeppner's not getting his piece in before Tuesday.)

As we did with Turner's piece yesterday, here's the money section that sort of speaks to the big issue for the Weprin campaign right now:

Among his worst setbacks, he said, was finishing last in the 2009 Democratic primary for comptroller, which he attributed to a lack of support from the Democratic Party machine.

But political operatives who worked with him in that race said he had proved to be a sometimes temperamental candidate.

They said he would miss scheduled meetings with black and Latino groups, only to be discovered spending time with Orthodox Jewish constituents. While he was very skilled at raising money, they said he was also absent-minded.

The Weprin campaign's missteps might be more of trait following the candidate from race to race than any sort of bad luck. And they seem to be taking their toll: Siena came out with their poll this morning showing Turner capturing the majority of the support of those polled, leading the former frontrunner Weprin by 6 points.

The big question will be how the Weprin camp responds this weekend. Mobilizing support from endorsers in labor and elected office, hitting the pavement in the district, using the poll for a last-minute fundraising push--all of these things would indicate a campaign that was still going for the gold.

If today's event today was any indication, things don't look good for Weprin. After the poll was released showing Weprin sliding into second place, the campaign held a "protest" against Donald Trump's endorsement of Bob Turner. In Midtown. Far, far away from the district that could be slipping through his fingers.