NEW YORK, NY July 10, 2008 —Staten Island may be the last bastion of the Republican party within the five boroughs, but that just could change this year. The seat occupied by Congressman Vito Fossella will be up for grabs come November, and Democrats are well positioned to take it back for the first time in decades. WNYC's Arun Venugopal has more on the shifting political winds.

REPORTER: The path to Congress, on this particular day, winds through the parking lot of Waldbaum's supermarket, on the South Shore of Staten Island. Not one, but two Republican campaigns are positioned outside the grocery store. The goal isn't really to get votes - that'll come later.

STRANIERE: Hi, I'm Assemblyman Bob Straniere and I'm running for Congress.

REPORTER: Today, the priority is simply getting on the ballot - and that's done by rapidly gathering signatures.

STRANIERE: Nice to meet you. Are you a registered Republican? "Yes, I signed." You didn't sign for me, though! "Well, I signed..." Okay! Hi, Assemblyman Bob Straniere, I'm running for Congress. Are you a registered Republican? "No." Okay, then can't use your signature.

REPORTER: Robert Straniere is a forceful personality and has no trouble getting people to sign his petition. It helps that he spent 24 years in the State Assembly. And he owns the New York City Hot Dog Company. But Straniere and another Republican hopeful, cardiologist Jamshad Wyne, are facing an uphill battle. The Staten Island GOP has been in something of a freefall since May - that's when Fossella was arrested for drunk driving, then revealed he'd fathered a child out of wedlock. After Fossella decided he wouldn't seek re-election, Republicans chose Frank Powers to contest the seat.

But Powers suddenly died. And now, the party is struggling to rally around anyone. Which means that Republicans could actually lose the seat, for the first time in 28 years. That idea has some Republican officials embarrassed. And it enrages some local voters, like John Ryan, who think the Democrats are wrong on pretty much everything.

RYAN: They're liberals. They're anti-military. They're pro-abortion. They're pro-same-sex marriage. They're weak on the borders.

REPORTER: But although Fossella won his last election, in 2006, some felt his seat was becoming vulnerable even before his recent scandal. In that 2006 race, Democrat Steve Harrison got 43 percent of the vote, the best showing for a Democrat since Fossella came into office, 11 years ago.

Harrison is running again this time, as is City Councilman Michael McMahon, who has the Democratic party's backing. That means the Democrats themselves may have a competitive primary. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is so excited about its chances with the race that it's added McMahon to its Red to Blue program, which targets Republican districts. It's also reserved $2 million worth of TV airtime this fall.

But Robert Straniere thinks a Republican loss would have long-term consequences.

STRANIERE: If this seat is lost to the Democrats, I don't see any circumstances by which we'll ever see another Republican congressman from this city because Democrats will re-draw the lines in a couple of years and Staten Island will no longer be in the same Congressional district with Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst, and you'll just never be able to elect a Republican. I mean, it's tough enough.

REPORTER: Some shoppers in the Waldbaum's parking lot seemed to sense the Republican party's lack of direction. Denise Mendez wonders who could fill Fossella's shoes.

MENDEZ: He helped me a lot when my dad passed away - and I needed help with the veterans, and I needed papers for his honorable discharge. So I like Vito and if anybody can follow in his footsteps, that would be great.

REPORTER: But some conservative voters like Lorraine Marino haven't ceded Staten Island to the Democrats just yet. If there's one thing that will bring her to the polls, it's Marino's fear of a black president.

MARINO: I'm just afraid of the feeling, the rise of power that would happen in the more impoverished communities. I mean, you see what happens when there's some sort of crazy fallout in Madison Square Garden against boxers. You know what I mean? I just don't want - I don't like playing the race card but I don't want them to feel more empowered than they're beginning to feel. (laughs) If you want me to be honest.

REPORTER: The Staten Island primary is on Sept. 9. Both Congressional Quarterly and the Cook Political Report say the race "leans Democratic." For WNYC, I'm Arun Venugopal.