Nils Petter Gleditsch

Is war inevitable? Following the publication of the three seminal books by Robert Muchembled (A History of Violence, 2008, English translation 2012), Joshua Goldstein (Winning for War on War, 2011), and Steven Pinker (The Better Angels of Our Nature, 2011), it makes sense to reverse the question: Is Peace Inevitable? In either case, the answer is no, in the sense that we cannot rule out events like major war even if they are becoming increasingly improbable. In the last recorded year, the Uppsala Conflict Data project recorded 30 on-going armed conflicts (with more than 25 deaths in a calendar year). Few of these have much escalatory potential. Despite economic and political rivalry between the US and the aspiring superpower China, both seem persuaded that a trading relationship beats a warring relationship hands down. An increasing fraction of on-going armed conflicts may relate to religion, but not an increasing absolute number, and the ‘clash of civilizations’ has failed to erupt. Despite setbacks here and there, democracy continues to rule over a higher fraction of the world’s population than ever before. Environmental disruption and inequitable use of natural resources have inspired cooperation just as much as conflict, and so far there is little if any evidence that climate change along the lines foreseen by the IPCC will make the traditional neomalthusian scenarios of scarcity-driven conflict come true. For these and other reasons, I remain a qualified optimist.

Nils Petter Gleditsch, Research professor, Peace Research Institute Oslo; Professor of political science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology; President International Studies Association (2008–09).