Steffen Schmidt, IAFC Blogger
Steffen W. Schmidt, University Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Iowa State University, WNYC blogger, and chief Political correspondent of Insider Iowa.
Opinion: Mitt's Iowa Upswing, and What it Means
Wednesday, December 28, 2011 - 01:23 PM
Mitt Romney signs autographs for a supporter during a campaign stop in Muscatine, Iowa.
(Getty)
Less than a week from Iowa caucuses, we've got a barnburner of a race shaping up. Mitt Romney, long trailing behind Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, appears to have vaulted into second place and climbing, while Newt has dropped from 27 percent in early December into third place with just under 15 percent of respondents.
Here are the latest Real Clear Politics polling numbers for the field:
Ron Paul 23.3%
Mitt Romney 21%
Newt Gingrich 14.7%
Rick Perry 12%
Michelle Bachmann 8.7%
Rick Santorum 7.7%
John Huntsman 4%
These percentages will probably adjust before January 3, but may not change radically. We also need to always be reminded that polls and turnout on caucus night are not the same even though they have been fairly reliable indicators in past caucuses.
What if the favorites Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul failed to place in the top three in Iowa? For the three candidates that dominate public opinion surveys it’s important to maintain their first, second or third place position. Fourth place would be dangerous if not fatal.
The caucuses are an expectations game and there is not much time to recover althout of course, several past contenders have not done well in Iowa yet gone on to get the nomination.
What happens if the favorites win in Iowa? If the three favorites won in Iowa it widens their the opportunity to compete in New Hampshire and South Carolina and it ensures that they will receive financial contributions from groups and individuals who fund political campaigns.
What about those who will lose in Iowa? Candidates who have not mastered the contests in Iowa and reached one of the top three slots are Minnesota congresswoman Michelle Bachmann, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, perhaps Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, former Utah governor John Huntsman.
We predict that Huntsman continues his campaign in the state of New Hampshire where he has invested all of his efforts this year. His problem has been that the Republican Party is more conservative and more Protestant than him - he's a Mormon. After New Hampshire Huntsman probably has no future. He has even closed down his Florida and New Hampshire primary operations. One publication said, “ … his path to the nomination is wholly dependent on trying to score an upset in the nation’s first primary.”
Bachmann and Santorum do not have enough financial resources to continue after Iowa, and I assume that both will support one of the other candidates.
Rick Perry has enough financial support to continue his campaign through New Hampshire and especially in the key states of South Carolina and Florida. If he reaches first, second or third place in any of these contests, Perry will continue until at least the 11 Super Tuesday contests on March 6.
Comments [2]
Of course both Obama and Romney are on Goldman Sachs, etc., contribution list. Actually it's a bought politician list. No one goes to jail regardless, which party gets the presidency. My contention is that BOTH parties are bought and paid for by BIG BANKS, WALL STREET and BIG OIL.
Has Bush prosecuted anyone for Sept 2008 related crimes: NO Prosecutions
Has Obama prosecuted anyone for Sept 2008 related crimes: NO Prosecutions
How about over 5,000 Americans service persons who had their homes repossessed, while on active duty against federal law. Not one person goes to jail. Jamie Diamond the King of Robosigners is still enjoying his millions, while children of servicemen and women wonder why they are homeless.
Thanks Bush
Thanks Obama
No difference
Time for a new party...
I vote for a strong national defense, that is affordable.
I vote for a firm hand to correct the economic swamp our government is in. Sound budgets with fair taxes for rich and poor. Let's pass a real budget. We haven't had one since 2008.
I vote for strong bank and insurance regulation.Let's making banking boring again!
I vote to send a message to Wall Street by indicting and convicting Angelo Mazilo, Jon Corzine, Jamie Diamond and all the rest of the greedy thieves.
I vote for a single payer national health plan with a loss ratio or 8% as opposed to 15-20% profit margin for the insurance companies.
I vote for a socially liberal policy for all minorities (racial and sexual)
I vote for Einstein Immigration. I vote for removing illegal aliens from stealing jobs from Afro-Americans. We have over 45 million American citizens without a high school degree. Most of these Americans are minorities who have historically been harmed by racial discrimination and are still served with poor schools. So we continue to provide poor educations to Afro-Americans and now we add 11 million ill educated souls to compete against them. These illegals drive down wages. Illegal immigration typically are English illiterate, lack an education to a high school level, the minimum education in an advanced technology world. How does this help America? We need the best and brightest from all over the world. Every new foreign Ph.D. earned in America, in the hard sciences or engineering should, after a brief criminal check, get a green card. Immigration is for the good of the country not for the betterment of the immigrant. If we pick right we will get a better educated citizenry.
Antonia Gilligan
Romney's top 3 contributors
1. Goldman Sachs
2. Credit Suisse Group
3. Morgan Stanley
Bailout anyone?
The elitist, flip flopping Mitt Romney. The more I learn about Romney the more I can barely tell the difference between him and Obama! You know his campaign contributors are going to expect favors so expect more of the same, expect more corporate welfare!. You know what Mitt says, "Corporations are people too"! Does America really need another Elitist for President? Especially one that is a warmongering draft dodger that believes him and his family are exempt from military duty. Yours and mine that will the ones dying on the frontlines while "his" sons are nice and safe and him and his cronies count the cash!
Romney VS Paul= Plastic VS Genuine Article!
Romney VS Obama = Plastic VS Plastic
Romney and Obama VS Paul = Plastic VS The Genuine Article!
Gingrich = sore loser!
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