Nate Silver has a counter-intuitive take on why Andrew Cuomo is proceeding so cautiously into his first budget presentation: despite the large election he won, he isn't coming to Albany with much of a mandate.

Appearing on the New Yrok Times Close-Up this weekend, Silver said:

Cuomo won a weird election. it was more of an anti-[Carl]Paladino vote. It wasn't really a mandate, despite the size of the margin. He had a very low turnout throughout the state. So, he's still introducing himself to New Yorkers. And I don't think we've really fully formed our opinions about him yet. So I think, especially now, his first major action - the way it's portrayed - could shape perceptions of him for months.

It is true that Cuomo won a large margin without doing much to raise the profile of the race. (He declined several opportunities to appear on national tv shows, or to give lengthy, possibly news-making speeches in places like Crain's business breakfast or the Association for a Better New York.)

But a recent Siena poll found Cuomo, and his agenda, pretty well-supported.