Predictions for the NY Primaries
Tuesday, September 14, 2010 - 09:00 PM
A few brave souls, including Carl Paladino's campaign manager, my mom, and Newsday reporter Reid Esptein, offered their predictions on tonight's races.
The consensus from the predictions (submitted before polls closed) is that Tea Party-backed Carl Paladino overtakes Rick Lazio in the Republican primary; progressive Eric Schneiderman holds off the opposition in the Democratic attorney general's race, Rep. Charlie Rangel cruises to re-election; embattled State Senator Pedro Espada succumbs to unified opposition, and former State Senator Hiram Monserrate gets denied a return to the legislature.
We'll see.
Anyway, here are the predictors (If I missed yours, stick it in the comments section):
NY GOP GOV PRIMARY
Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
56: Lazio
44: Paladino
Operative Eric Kuo
55: Lazio
44: Paladino
Publisher/Editor Michael Schenkler
53: Lazio
47: Paladino
My Mom, Myra Paybarah
53: Lazio
47: Paladino
Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
56: Lazio
40: Paladino
Former Attorney John Ohara
57: Paladino
43: Lazio
Consultant Evan Stavisky
55: Paladino
45: Lazio
Consultant Bob LIff
54: Paladino
46: Lazio
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
54: Lazio
46: Paladino (or "Sith Lord Palpatino" as Naparstek calls him)
Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
53: Paladino
46: Lazio
1: Other
Pollster Peter Feld
53: Paladino
47: Lazio
Paladino's Campaign Manager Michael Caputo
52: Paladino
48: Lazio
Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
52: Paladino
48: Lazio
NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
51: Paladino
49: Lazio
Operative Michael Fragin
51: Paladino
48: Lazio
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
49: Paladino
47: Lazio
3: Other
AG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
My Mom, Myra Paybarah
46: Schneiderman
20: Brodsky
17: Rice
11: Coffey
6: Dinallo
Former Attorney John Ohara
44: Schneiderman
41: Rice
5: Brodsky
5: Coffey
5: Dinallo
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
39: Schneiderman
31: Rice
13: Cofffey
8: Brodsky
Consultant Evan Stavisky
38: Schneiderman
32: Rice
15: Coffey
9: Brodsky
6: Dinallo
Operative Eric Kuo
38: Schneiderman
35: Rice
21: Coffey
3: Dinallo
2: Coffey
NY Observer Blogger David Freedlander
36: Schneiderman
31: Rice
14: Coffey
13: Brodsky
6: Dinallo
Newsday Reporter Reid Epstein
35: Schneiderman
28: Rice
18: Coffey
15: Brodsky
5: Dinallo
Union Organizer Neal Kwatra
35: Schneiderman
25: Rice
20: Coffey
12: Brodsky
8: Dinallo
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
33: Schneiderman
31: Rice
16: Coffey
14: Brodsky
6: Dinallo
Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
32: Schneiderman
28: Rice
19: Coffey
13: Brodsky
8: Dinallo
Consultant Bob Liff
28: Schneiderman
21: Rice
19: Dinallo
16: Brodsky
6: Coffey
Operative Michael Fragin
28: Rice
27: Schneiderman
19: Coffey
13: Dinallo
10: Brodsky
Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
28: Scheiderman
26: Rice
19: Brodsky
18: Coffey
9: Dinallo
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
26: Rice
25: Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
17: Coffey
13: Dinallo
Pollster Peter Feld
29: Rice
27 Schneiderman
19: Brodsky
13: Dinallo
12: Coffey
NY-1 GOP PRIMARY
Consultant Bob Liff
54: Altschuler
42: Cox
4: Demos
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
40: Altschuler
34: Cox
26: Demos
NY-13 GOP PRIMARY
Pollster Peter Feld
62: Grimm
38: Allegretti
Consultant Bob Liff
54: Grimm
46: Allegretti
Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
55: Grimm
45: Allegretti
NY-14 DEM PRIMARY
Pollster Peter Feld
83: Maloney
17: Saujani
Former Attorney John Ohara
73: Maloney
27: Saujani
Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
68: Maloney
32: Saujani
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
66: Maloney
34: Saujani
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
54.5: Maloney
45.5 Saujani
NY-15 DEM PRIMARY
Consultant Bob Liff
59: Rangel
21: Powell
8: Johnson
7: Tasini
5: Morgan
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
48: Rangel
30: Powell
11: Tasini
6: Morgan
5: Johnson
Former Attorney John Ohara
47: Rangel
38: Powell
6: Johnson
6: Tasini
3: Morgan
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
44: Rangel
24: Powell
18: Johnson
8: Morgan
6: Tasini
Fake Sheldon Silver Twitter Person
41: Rangel
26: Powell
17: Johnson
9: Tasini
7: Morgan
Conservative GOV PRIMARY
Former Attorney John Ohara
55: Largio
45: Lazio
Consultant Bob Liff
67: Lazio
33: Largio
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Lazio
44: Largio
Sliwa Radio Producer Frank Morano
65: Lazio
35: Lorigo
GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Gillibrand)
Consultant Bob Liff
41: Blakeman
40: Malpass
19: DioGuardi
Aaron Naparstek
41: Malpass
40: DioGuardi
29: Blakeman
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
34: DioGuardi
33: Malpass
32: Blakeman
GOP PRIMARY US SENATE (vs Schumer)
Consultant Bob Liff
61: Berntsen
39: Townsend
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Berntsen
44: Townsend
DEM PRIMARY US SENATE
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
95: Gillibrand
4: Goode
Consultant Bob Liff
78: Gillibrand
22: Goode
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
77: Gillibrand
23: Goode
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode
Former Attorney John Ohara
74: Gillibrand
26: Goode
State Senate: 30
Consultant Bob Liff
55: Perkins
45: Smikle
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
55: Smikle
45: Perkins
Former Attorney John Ohara
56: Perkins
44: Smikle
State Senate 31 (Schneiderman's Seat)
Consultant Bob Liff
48: Espaillat
41: Levine
8: Lewis
3: Munoz
State Senate 33
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
45: Rivera
42: Espada
2: Padernatch
Consultant Bob Liff
54: Rivera
41: Espada
0: Padernacht
Blogger Aaron Naparstek
50: Rivera
46: Espada
4: Padernacht
State Senate: 39
Democratic Operative Al Benninghoff
75: Moya
25: Monserrate
Consultant Bob Liff
66: Moya
34: Monserrate
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
56: Moya
44: Monserrate
State Senate: 10
Publisher/Editor Michael Schnenkler
61: Huntley
39: Nunes
Consultant Bob Liff
53: Huntley
47: Nunes
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