Track: Iowa Caucus Returns
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
The map on this page shows not only who’s winning in each of the state’s 99 counties, but, using Patchwork Nation, it shows how the candidates are doing in each of Iowa’s eight types of county – from the wealthy Monied Burbs to the rural agricultural Tractor Country counties. It will fill in with data as the results from the caucuses come in.
What this map means:
It’s easy to beat up Iowa, to criticize the power it has in the presidential selection process every four years. It’s not representative of the nation at large in terms of demography. And the influence of agriculture on the state economy often means it’s out of step with what’s happening nationally.
But there are also lessons and insights out of the quadrennial caucus vote – particularly if you go beyond who wins and loses and look at what examines in a broader context. Patchwork Nation, a reporting project that breaks the nation into 12 demographic/geographic types along county lines offers some insights.
The map on this page shows not only who’s in winning in each of the state’s 99 counties, but, using Patchwork Nation, it shows how the candidates are doing in each of Iowa’s eight types of county – from the wealthy Monied Burbs to the rural agricultural Tractor Country counties. It will fill in with data as the results from the caucuses come in.
Consider this a primer to reading this map and understanding the some of the broader messages out of Tuesday night’s results. Much will depend on who actually comes out to vote, but these are some of the basic themes to watch.
Winning the Burbs: There are only four Monied Burb counties in Iowa (around Des Moines in the state’s center and in the west near Omaha, NE), but in 2008 they produced 26 percent of all the caucus votes. In 2012, they could be good territory for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Burbs, which are wealthier than average, tend to be less focused on cultural issues like gay marriage and more on the economy. They should be Romney’s strong suit.
If Texas Congressman Ron Paul wins in the Burbs, it means populist anger in these counties is running high.
In 2008, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the Burbs. While there was a lot of focus on Huckabee’s Evangelical credentials in 2008, he won a broad victory in the state. His populist anti-Washington/Wall Street talk was a big reason why.
This chart from the Wall Street Journal shows how broad Huckabee’s win was.
Big Vote in the Graying Counties: The biggest turnout in the 2008 caucuses came from the state’s 56 Emptying Nest counties, some 36,000 attendees. Those counties are typified by large populations of people 55 and over and in Iowa in particular tend to be pretty culturally conservative. If Romney does well in these counties, it’s a good night for him.
But this could be where we see the impact of the “Santorum surge” of the last few days – that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. But He also could lose votes here to Ron Paul or other cultural conservative candidates such as Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Evangelicals and Farmers: The counties we call Tractor Country and the Evangelical Epicenters, are by far the most the culturally conservative counties in the state overall. They went heavily for Mike Huckabee in 2008. Expect them to be good for Rick Santorum (or Bachmann or Perry) tonight.
There aren’t a lot of votes here – only about 8,100 in 2008 – but there are worth watching for their reaction to Mitt Romney. Romney, with his Wall Street background and his Mormon faith, is not necessarily a great fit for many voters in these counties. If he does better than he did in 2008 – where he got about 17 percent of the vote in these counties – that would be a win for him.
We’ll check in later to see how the vote shakes out. In the meantime watch and click on this map to do you own analysis.
Comments [10]
I find Romney's statement to be so mendacious. He blames everything on "Obamacare." I hope Politifact goes through it with a fine tooth comb.
Beware of the cost of mendacity, as the previous administration so clearly demonstrated.
Why is Powehiekscounty green (Santorum) when it should be brown (Paul)?
Hint: Click on the county that encircles the "Io" of Iowa city in the mid east.
You shouldn't round the % reporting. Take the floor, so when it says 100%, all precincts are in.
Great election site. The patchwork map is fabulous. Excellent work.
This is one of the best election return sites I've ever run across. Excellent work!!!!! Love the interactive map.
@ Jerry
You really haven't heard of WNYC? Public radio is a far cry from Fox News. I don't think I have found a more thorough digestion of why Iowa matters and how Iowa will predict the rest of the primary season. Thanks WNYC, I was planning on donating because of your incredible program, Radiolab. Thanks to this I'm writing the check now.
Mitt 2012!
What does Santorum know about the economy? Paul?
Well, I think it's a good thing if Paul would win due to "populist anger". That means that we are fed up with the way things are going and we have chosen to vote based on who we think can make a change. That is what the constitution gives us the power to do.
Romney spending money on a haircut? The Romney who loads his own U-haul and puts the dog in a roof carrier to save a few bucks?
Are you serious? This article is so skewed it's incredible... I'm not familiar with this website so it could be like fox and give you the news a certain segment wants to hear, but really?
Sounds like the writer has already chosen who they want to win and on the band wagon as the rest of them... If Ron Paul wins its only because of "Populist Anger", not because he probably has the best chance of beating Obama, not because he actually sticks with what he believes and doesn't flip-flop at every notion of what the populace or the "CORE" of the base want...
Let Mitt win, he's just like you and I... with $150+ MILLION in the bank... and draft dodging Vietnam visiting France to recruit some morons....Oh, I meant mormons...
I just wanna know, how much does he spend for a haircut? Let's see how out of touch he really is...
Keep listening to these fools and it's another 4 years of Obamination....
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